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The Random Number Generator is far from random!

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Kalann #121 Posted 17 May 2013 - 01:56 PM

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You can all see how many battles I have done, and can also see that I'm pretty reasonable at this game, and having read the links provided to Z's blog, which breaks it down, then if you actually read it carefully you can see the following.

The MM is not known to be rigged in favour of what your win loss ratio is, however it is rigged so that if you get too many "easy" battles, i.e where you are top tier and if your good you can make a huge difference to the battle outcome, it will then balance it out by providing you with more battles where you are not top tier.

Whether this is done on a by tank basis, or overall isn;t clear from what I've read, but if its done as an overall basis and you have some premium tanks with preferential matchmaking, then when you play tanks without that preferential MM, you may then effectively get penalised for getting so many battles where you were top tier.

Thats not rigging it based on WR, thats rigging it, so people dont get put into battles where their influence is likely to be much less all the time by pure luck.

As to the randomness of the RNG, pen, damage etc rolls, yes there are some very, very odd sequences we get happening in this game, but as human being's we notice the bad ones far more than we notice the "good" ones.

Take for example a moan i was havin gin my clan a few weeks back about the object 268's gun and the fact that despite proper aiming, i just get nearly nothing but zero dam pen's and wierd bounces with it.

However then take a battle that i did about an hour ago in my new 110 tier 8 heavy, still using the gun from the IS2.. i.e horrifically inaccurate. I got spotted while driving full tilt towards some cover by a T71, that was maybe 300m away from me, I clicked on autoaim, carried on going flat out and fired.. bang, there goes nearly half its life... lucky shot I think to myself, chances of hitting, probably no more than 1%.. still driving towards it, but now with a worse angle, but range down to less than 200m, reload is complete so i fire again, thinking NO chance this one will hit, but hit it does, killing the poor T71 outright.

No matter how lucky we are with this type of thing, its always the crappy rolls of the dice we remember, not the million to one shots of something like i just described happening, but happen they do.

I do 99.9% pure random matches and always have done, the occasional CW to help my clan out, and when my real life allows me to play atthe right time and yet my win rate, my stats continue to slowly, rise, yes i get really shit runs of luck where it feels like no matter what i do i cant get wins for love nor money, however thats merely my perception over short spaces of time, because i am human and dont tend to notice when I'm getting good runs of luck and win 10 in a row.

However that doesn't stop me wondering about the supposed randomness of the game at times, but in over 20k battles and two years of playing, I have yet to see anything happen that doesn't get balance out at a another time, so I'm going to take to the fact that yes actually it is mostly random, although clearly WG does "balance" some tanks stats, so the real performance and the on paper stats dont bear much relationship to each other.

Just my two pence worth

GlenoWar #122 Posted 17 May 2013 - 02:34 PM

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View PostTheInternetGangster, on 15 May 2013 - 09:53 PM, said:

...
So, to sum up, I know this game is rigged, I know the RNG is NOT random, and I know that stats are manipulated! I accept this, but please, don't make it so freaking obvious!!!!!! If you are intent on lowering our stats, at least let us win 1 out of every 3 or 4 games!
...

http://www.noobmeter...nternetGangster

Your overall win rate is 51.6%,
Your win rate in the last 2500 battles is 54.1%
Your win rate in the last 1000 battles is 56.7%

Your performance rating has been steadily improving recently, and correspondingly your win rate has also been steadily improving.
If we judge you based solely on your recent performance we'd have to say that you were a good player getting good results.

I completely agree with your initial assessment, Wargaming have set up the game so that players who play well, win more. Totally f**king rigged.

zaphod_4242 #123 Posted 17 May 2013 - 03:46 PM

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View PostTheInternetGangster, on 15 May 2013 - 09:53 PM, said:

So, to sum up, I know this game is rigged, I know the RNG is NOT random, and I know that stats are manipulated! I accept this, but please, don't make it so freaking obvious!!!!!! If you are intent on lowering our stats, at least let us win 1 out of every 3 or 4 games!

My first session last friday:
http://www.hilmi.de/...ot_242_crop.jpg

Ended up with 61 battles and 54% WR that night.

Edited by zaphod_4242, 17 May 2013 - 03:53 PM.


sharpneli #124 Posted 17 May 2013 - 04:01 PM

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View Postzaphod_4242, on 17 May 2013 - 03:46 PM, said:

My first session last friday:
http://www.hilmi.de/...ot_242_crop.jpg

Ended up with 61 battles and 54% WR that night.

You forget something.

Winstreaks are just pure luck and are not statistically significant.

But if you lose 18 in a row it's perfect proof for rigging.

Right? </sarcasm>

XPuntar #125 Posted 17 May 2013 - 04:03 PM

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View PostFibonachi, on 16 May 2013 - 12:05 PM, said:

I don't understand the OP's idea of RNG? This seems more like a problem with MM, since he kills a few tanks and his team loses. Sadly the game does not take skill into account for MM.

A good example of RNG done wrong is russian accuracy. I used to kill tanks with 152mm KV, 500m away, multiple times in one game. That's just not logical with it's rediculous accuracy. But some tanks despite their supposed accuracy and size of aim circle, almost always hit in the center.

In terms of armour this game is a mess, 286 pen shots bouncing off 75 armour (yes ISU-152's BL-10 actually bounced off a KV-1S's hull, no richochet), which is one reason why KV-1S and russian tanks are considered OP.

Another example of RNG is one tank doing his max alpha the entire fight, while you do the minimum. Same with penetration. It really, really impacts your performance.

Those are just a few examples on why RNG sucks. As for your MM complains, I've always disliked the tier+weight based MM. I think a MM where you only meet your own tier and you are paired against equally skilled people is MUCH better. I'm tired of being the only tierV in a tierVII battle, doing 2k damage and losing (how do 10 people lose the other front to 5 people???).

I am also irritated to be the the only or one of the two of the lowest tiers against 2 tiers higher tanks.

One slight mistake and you can only rage quit to garage due to one shotting (as T4 ot T5 quite common due to quite a lot of "derpers" at that tier and because of T6 Soviet's ones) and very strong guns on T6/T7 tanks compared to your own T4/T5 tank.

Those 2 tier higher tanks "normal" damage is half health of T4/T5 tanks, which means you are toast in 2 shots, while most of the time you have trouble to even pen those tanks with normal ammo for pathetic damage.. If, If you pen you will deal at max around 10% - 15% of their health points.

Very common scenario: T4 vs T6

T4 non derp damage = 45 - 110
T4 health pool = ~ 340  (mediums)

T6 non derp damage = 110 - 390 (as average!)
T6 health pool = ~ 730 (mediums)

Su-100 TD can one shots any T4 tank with its top gun. It does not matter how much armor T4 have, Unless it is a zero pen, or a ding it will also be a kill shot!In most cases T6, will deal damage with every non miss shot against any T4 tank!

Actually quite a lot of heavies and TD at tier 6 are capable to deal 300 damage easily which means a T4 tank in such cases will lose around 80% hp IN ONE SHOT AT BEST and in THE WORST CASE player in T4 can even be one shoted due to RNG (+25% more damage)

On the opposite side, quite a lot of T4 tanks have top guns which can only deal 45 - 65 damage PER SHOT. Considering that T4 needs to penetrate to deal damage, player in it, will have quite a a hard way to even bypass T6 armor from ANY SIDE. (Sure it is still possible, but very unlikely). The only way T4 tank can deal damage reliably is to AIM for a weak spot BUTT THE ODDS ARE STILL AGAINST T4 PLAYER.

iT DOES NOT MATTER HOW GOOD YOU ARE, RNG AND YOUR OWN NEGATIVE EMOTIONS WILL WORK AGAINST YOU IN SUCH CASES!

1. Due to T6 tank's better armor even weak spots cannot be that easily penetrated.
2. As aiming for a weak spot requires time, T4 tank is again exposed more to their T6 opponents, which only means "faster death" and garage rage quit
3. Even when T4 tank connect a shot to T6 tank, it rather sad to see 40 to 70 damage done,  while he lost 2x - 3x more hp PER shot from T6 or even T5 tank.
4. Match maker really loves to put T4 medium against 7 - 10 T6 heavies and TD which are the most deadly opponents to play against!

I disregarded "premium ammo" as I find it rather ridiculous that lower tiers wold need to waste in-game money to even perform at least adequate against 2 higher tier tanks!

Edited by XPuntar, 17 May 2013 - 04:12 PM.


Swoopie #126 Posted 17 May 2013 - 05:43 PM

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View Postsharpneli, on 16 May 2013 - 06:54 PM, said:

Teammates are random. You yourself are not.

How to numerically calculate crap like this:

Decide a skill distribution. Even a dice from 0-100 is enough.

Decide your own skill. Something like 50 or so.

Repeat this 10000 times:
Select 14 teammates and 15 enemies by throwing the dice for each. Sum your own 'skill' with the skills of your 14 teammates. Sum the skill of enemy team.
Compare these numbers. Whichever has highest total sum wins. Store the amount of wins.

Then play around with this for different skill levels and whatnot. You can even plot the chart and you'll see it produces quite WoT like WR graph. You won't get many over 60%.
Had to do this (Was bored anyway). Made a small program in java which does the following:
  • Randomizes the skill of each player in the game (15vs15)
  • You can input your own skill (From 0 to 100)
  • Sums up the "skill" of each side
  • Then simply compares the values and put's them to correct category (Win, Loss, Draw)
  • Does this 100000 (100k) times
  • I ran all tests three (3) times!
The program itself: http://pastebin.com/PmSLHYw7
It's very messy as I did it pretty quickly and last time I had coded java was around last september...

And the results:
With a player skill of "0":
Spoiler                     

With a player skill of 50:
Spoiler                     

With a player skill of "100":
Spoiler                     

(I did change the "while (b < 14)" to "while (b < 12)", so both teams still have 15 players. So when 3 platooned players, everyone has a skill of 50, I mark it down as "150", if 100 then as 300 etc.).

With 3 platooned players, everyone with a skill of "0":
Spoiler                     

With 3 platooned players, everyone with a skill of "50":
Spoiler                     

With 3 platooned players, everyone with a skill of "100":
Spoiler                     

Notes about this:
  • These tests show the results in a "perfect" environment, meaning that each player has the same tank, the map is perfectly symmetric etc, basically everything is same for both sides, only the player skill differs
  • Didn't bother to do tests for 40, 60 and 70, I think those 0, 50 and 100 are enough to show that your skill does matter
Edit: If someone understands my code and java, you put your skill in the "myteam" variable.

Edited by Swoopie, 17 May 2013 - 05:54 PM.


Arekonator #127 Posted 17 May 2013 - 05:44 PM

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So, any player who is worth anything sitting in T6 tank will wipe the floor with T4?
Working as intended, if you ask me.
This still can be compensated by your skill to a certain degree though (covenanter/crusader roflstomping KV1-S anyone?) or just waiting till there is more T4 than T6 in matchmaking queue, which influences your chances for more favorable matchups.

XPuntar #128 Posted 17 May 2013 - 05:58 PM

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Sure it is working as intended but "the thing" is that "power rise" PER TIER is just too great for a game, where SKILL should matter more than RNG with such kind of game mechanics.

MM in WoT is quite like playing battlegrounds in WoW, where lvl. 60 player with BC gear would battle lvl. 70 with WotLK gear.

1. It is not fair
2  it is not fun either for both sides

ABCWarrrior #129 Posted 17 May 2013 - 06:04 PM

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View PostFibonachi, on 16 May 2013 - 12:05 PM, said:

I don't understand the OP's idea of RNG? This seems more like a problem with MM, since he kills a few tanks and his team loses. Sadly the game does not take skill into account for MM.

A good example of RNG done wrong is russian accuracy. I used to kill tanks with 152mm KV, 500m away, multiple times in one game. That's just not logical with it's rediculous accuracy. But some tanks despite their supposed accuracy and size of aim circle, almost always hit in the center.

In terms of armour this game is a mess, 286 pen shots bouncing off 75 armour (yes ISU-152's BL-10 actually bounced off a KV-1S's hull, no richochet), which is one reason why KV-1S and russian tanks are considered OP.

Another example of RNG is one tank doing his max alpha the entire fight, while you do the minimum. Same with penetration. It really, really impacts your performance.

Those are just a few examples on why RNG sucks. As for your MM complains, I've always disliked the tier+weight based MM. I think a MM where you only meet your own tier and you are paired against equally skilled people is MUCH better. I'm tired of being the only tierV in a tierVII battle, doing 2k damage and losing (how do 10 people lose the other front to 5 people???).

I do think that the RNG may be set too high in the game personally, but that's an aside and that's the game, so I'll accept it as is, quite readily.  Regarding your KV experience though ... it's before my WoT time, but there may be an explanation that doesn't have to do with RNG.  You're talking back in the day before the KVs split.  Pretty sure that was also back in the day when HE had much larger splash and behaved quite differently from now.  It might explain it.  From what I've been told by you old lags :wink: , back then landing a large HE shell  even in the approximate vicinity of another tank could do considerable damage, so accuracy wasn't such an issue with a big fat derp ... then.

Edited by ABCWarrrior, 17 May 2013 - 06:05 PM.


mtm78 #130 Posted 17 May 2013 - 06:38 PM

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View PostWarheart1992, on 15 May 2013 - 10:28 PM, said:

OP , unless you are a machine you wont be able to keep up the exact performance and increase constantly . Your mood in the game is a higher RNG than the one ingame.

Also , if you want to be taken seriously , provide data

Sorry for late reply, but I couldn't resist ( and not sure if mentioned already as I just pressed reply :hide: )

A: 'mood' > RNG
B: ( 15 - 1 ) x 'mood' > 1 x 'mood'

Even while A potentially is true ( as in a game with where the other 14 x 'mood' would be constant, 1 x 'mood' would be the biggest RNG. So theoretically A can be true ), B is universal  :harp:
---------------------------------------

To thread content:

Singular evidence of the existence off rng and it's distribution or lack thereof has no ability to proof or disproof either. In small enough datasets, rng can appear as strains, the existence of these strains are not proof or disprove of rng and/or it's distribution.

narHhallas #131 Posted 17 May 2013 - 08:17 PM

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@swoopie
Just Reading in ma mobile:
Did u use uniform or gaussian Distribution to Determine skill of teams?


Swoopie #132 Posted 17 May 2013 - 08:26 PM

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View PostnarHhallas, on 17 May 2013 - 08:17 PM, said:

@swoopie
Just Reading in ma mobile:
Did u use uniform or gaussian Distribution to Determine skill of teams?
Neither one, I just used pure RNG. I randomized a certain skill number for everyone in the team and added those up to determine the skill of the team. If the amount of battles is big enough (300k should be enough), that randomness should't affect that much and the amount of good and bad players you have met is roughly the same.

BattleMetalChris #133 Posted 17 May 2013 - 09:53 PM

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View PostXPuntar, on 17 May 2013 - 05:58 PM, said:

it is not fun

The question would have to be: Why are you playing a game that isn't fun?

AngryBanana #134 Posted 17 May 2013 - 10:03 PM

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View PostGoldStar, on 17 May 2013 - 12:19 PM, said:

Using a Pz.Kpfw. IV with goldshell derp gun to boost your winratio does not make you a good player. Stop e-peeing if you are not really that good.
LOL I recently sold the pzIV because I rarely played it, as miros said, because I like the pzIV when it had the L/70 and the schmalturm, not with the derp

zaphod_4242 #135 Posted 18 May 2013 - 09:37 AM

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View Postjabster, on 18 May 2013 - 06:25 AM, said:

What is it with people that that can't accept that some players just happen to be better than them or god forbid a player is actually average at this game.

It's the same thing that makes many good players think they are better / more right / entitled, just because the play better.

TStick #136 Posted 18 May 2013 - 09:55 AM

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+1 for the OP. After 5 months of not playing i decided to do a round of WoT again. Instantly cured iwth the random damage.

It is exactly like he says. Rigged, to keep rubbish playing ppl in the game. No they will never fix it, their revenue model is based on it. Damn i remember those closed beta days, when everything was still sweet 'n rosie.

It's just a damn shame such a nice concept ends up like it is right now. I had some hope for new gamemodes that where once promissed (realistic, nation battles). But after 3 years, i gave up hope they will ever arrive.

Edited by TStick, 18 May 2013 - 09:58 AM.


Yammit #137 Posted 18 May 2013 - 10:42 AM

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SlySpy is a WG employee, all he does is login to the forums to defend WG and their NOOB MM approach to WOT which aims to reduce the win rates for better players to make a better game environment for noobs - FACT x2 about WG and slyspy.

BattleMetalChris #138 Posted 18 May 2013 - 11:10 AM

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Every time someone calls Slyspy a WG employee, an angel gets his wings.


Or God kills a kitten, I forget which.

Slyspy #139 Posted 18 May 2013 - 12:14 PM

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View PostBattleMetalChris, on 18 May 2013 - 11:10 AM, said:

Every time someone calls Slyspy a WG employee, an angel gets his wings.


Or God kills a kitten, I forget which.

Sadly it is the kitten thing, but I don't feel too bad about it since I'm allergic to them.

Strange thing is that I don't remember having any previous interaction with Yammit, although if at any point he has misunderstood how a 15vs15 non-respawn game restricts win rates naturally then I may have already informed him.

Alabamatick #140 Posted 18 May 2013 - 02:45 PM

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View PostTheInternetGangster, on 15 May 2013 - 09:53 PM, said:

Dear WG,

Please could you stop making it so damn obvious that you manipulate the stats within this game. I realize that you have to manipulate them to keep all the rubbish players interested in playing, but it is really infuriating when you do it so openly and blatantly. I don't know if it's a result of bad programming, or whether you just don't care if people are savvy about what you're up to. But it has to stop!!!

I've put up with it for the last year or so because I love this game so much. It's drawn me in and hooked me, and even if you don't fix it, I will probably keep playing anyway, but I just had to vent my frustration!

The last week was the final straw though, and prompted me to post here. Since Friday I have been playing fairly well. My stats have slowly increased, even over the x5 weekend. But then tonight, my stats and performance have went into free fall. Everything I hit has either bounced or penetrated with zero damage. Even if I get 4 or 5 kills, we lose!!! I have had the worst teams ever. For example, I told my team of tier 7 and 8's that I was going to scout north in my T-50-2, and 13 of my team mates then headed South when the game started!!!! I've tried low tiers, high tiers, med tanks, scouts, TD's, heavy tanks, arty, and it's just loss after loss!!!!

So, to sum up, I know this game is rigged, I know the RNG is NOT random, and I know that stats are manipulated! I accept this, but please, don't make it so freaking obvious!!!!!! If you are intent on lowering our stats, at least let us win 1 out of every 3 or 4 games!

Thanks in advance.

TIG

I keep a pencil and paper on the desk to mark off wins, losses and draws, not for any hard statitical win rate tracking,

just to know if i'm haveing a winning or loseing day, if i start off with 4 or 5 losses in a row sure i get frustrated but i log

out for 15 minutes calm down and come back concentrate and try to get some wins and if i get level or nearly level on

wins/losses then i turn the game off until tomorrow

(even if i've not got daily's on all my tanks), frustrtion over, simple as.  :glasses:

As for the RNG, we all know it's not brilliant in it' current form, you can top gun do lots of damage / spots etc several

times in a row and lose each time, but the next match win 15-2 in 2 or 3 minutes without barely takeing part, i don't

think that makes it rigged, it just needs some tweaking, i'm not a programer or mathematition but maybe

narrowing the number range or something might work,

maybe somebody else can add something to that ? :honoring:

Edited by Alabamatick, 18 May 2013 - 02:53 PM.






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