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Just a another question


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MalteMullvad #1 Posted 01 March 2014 - 03:25 PM

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Hello tankers! Just a thought,how can you have a loosing strike 10+ but never a winning stike +10? (i haven't had one that for shure after this patch)

Since the latest so called patch i think its just ridiculous.

Am i the only one????



_Antipathy #2 Posted 01 March 2014 - 03:38 PM

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That kind of stuff doesn't have an explication.

saxsan4 #3 Posted 01 March 2014 - 03:38 PM

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u are only one

AN225 #4 Posted 01 March 2014 - 03:55 PM

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Because you never notice winning strike, it's observation bias.

(It's in human nature to notice when things are going bad, and when they are good it's just them being awesome)

 

Your win rate is ~49%, with your number of battles that means you lost only 167 battles more then you won. (Let's exclude draws for easier math)

And if you spread that 167 battles of yours over 2 year period since you are playing that is barely noticable.

 

You can easily say that you win (almost) as much as you lose.

Which then means that at some point you had to have 10 win streak.

Or at least day with 80-90% win rate to compensate for that 10 lose strike.

 

Since you do have less then 50% win rate, but only by a little, that means that loosing strike will happen more often, but also by little.

 

 



hedi2222 #5 Posted 01 March 2014 - 03:56 PM

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actually because ........... when you win a battle you get so confident and you lose the next :P

Ohaithar #6 Posted 01 March 2014 - 04:01 PM

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The amount of influence required to pull 9-14 bad teammates up takes a lot of skill and usually more than one. The amount of influence required to be part of those dumb teammates is easy to achieve.

Edited by Ohaithar, 01 March 2014 - 04:01 PM.


hedi2222 #7 Posted 01 March 2014 - 04:02 PM

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View PostAN225, on 01 March 2014 - 02:55 PM, said:

Because you never notice winning strike, it's observation bias.

(It's in human nature to notice when things are going bad, and when they are good it's just them being awesome)

 

Your win rate is ~49%, with your number of battles that means you lost only 167 battles more then you won. (Let's exclude draws for easier math)

And if you spread that 167 battles of yours over 2 year period since you are playing that is barely noticable.

 

You can easily say that you win (almost) as much as you lose.

Which then means that at some point you had to have 10 win streak.

Or at least day with 80-90% win rate to compensate for that 10 lose strike.

 

Since you do have less then 50% win rate, but only by a little, that means that loosing strike will happen more often, but also by little.

 

 

this !!!! +1



MalteMullvad #8 Posted 01 March 2014 - 04:03 PM

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The reason for asking the question is just that my wr has gone down the toilett after the last patch,doesnt matter what i do,i can take care of my self on the battlefield but it seems that i often get teamed up with so called "tomatoes" more often these days.

Dunno why that is,can only speculate in that.

And for an answer to the previous writer ,i can ashure you that i know if i get a 10+ winrate(that will make my day) and it hasnt happend in a long time.

The game has for me become more and more frustrating,on the edge thinking of quiting the game.And i dont like that.

The mm for me is just a joke..............

And just for the record ,most of the time i play random,somedays i platoon and ofc also play cw.



_Antipathy #9 Posted 01 March 2014 - 04:24 PM

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View PostMalteMullvad, on 01 March 2014 - 03:03 PM, said:

The reason for asking the question is just that my wr has gone down the toilett after the last patch,doesnt matter what i do,i can take care of my self on the battlefield but it seems that i often get teamed up with so called "tomatoes" more often these days.

Dunno why that is,can only speculate in that.

And for an answer to the previous writer ,i can ashure you that i know if i get a 10+ winrate(that will make my day) and it hasnt happend in a long time.

The game has for me become more and more frustrating,on the edge thinking of quiting the game.And i dont like that.

The mm for me is just a joke..............

And just for the record ,most of the time i play random,somedays i platoon and ofc also play cw.

 

Play low tiers to massacre newbies and your WR will go up :trollface:



AN225 #10 Posted 01 March 2014 - 04:54 PM

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View PostMalteMullvad, on 01 March 2014 - 03:03 PM, said:

The reason for asking the question is just that my wr has gone down the toilett after the last patch,doesnt matter what i do,i can take care of my self on the battlefield but it seems that i often get teamed up with so called "tomatoes" more often these days.

Dunno why that is,can only speculate in that.

And for an answer to the previous writer ,i can ashure you that i know if i get a 10+ winrate(that will make my day) and it hasnt happend in a long time.

The game has for me become more and more frustrating,on the edge thinking of quiting the game.And i dont like that.

The mm for me is just a joke..............

And just for the record ,most of the time i play random,somedays i platoon and ofc also play cw.

 

Ok, let's go deeper into your stats and see what we can find.

Before that one side note. My first post was aimed at your overall stats, this time i will focus more on recent stats as you put them as a problem.

 

http://www.noobmeter...lvad/501253978/

 

Focus on 2 graphs, Performance rating, and win ratio.

 

As you see they are heavily related.

Each jump or fall in your performance rating is followed with the same trend in win ratio.

When you play better you are winning more, when you play bad you lose more, simple.

 

So statement that your win ratio is going down the toilet because of tomato players is invalid.

Tomatoes are in both teams, as much as they are a burden to you, the same they are easy targets in enemy team making you better.

(I am to lazy to look for it now but one guy did research based on 1000 games, tomatoes were equally spread in his and enemy team, so don't say you get them more)

 

Now we need to know why your performance rating is jumping so hard up and down.

So we need answers on:

1) did you started several (or one long) stock grind?

2) have you changed your pc/settings so now you have less fps?

3) are you influenced by heavy packet loss with the servers?

4) did you started playing tanks that are heavily team dependant? (like they can't carry on their own)



MalteMullvad #11 Posted 01 March 2014 - 06:35 PM

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View PostAN225, on 01 March 2014 - 04:54 PM, said:

 

Ok, let's go deeper into your stats and see what we can find.

Before that one side note. My first post was aimed at your overall stats, this time i will focus more on recent stats as you put them as a problem.

 

http://www.noobmeter...lvad/501253978/

 

Focus on 2 graphs, Performance rating, and win ratio.

 

As you see they are heavily related.

Each jump or fall in your performance rating is followed with the same trend in win ratio.

When you play better you are winning more, when you play bad you lose more, simple.

 

So statement that your win ratio is going down the toilet because of tomato players is invalid.

Tomatoes are in both teams, as much as they are a burden to you, the same they are easy targets in enemy team making you better.

(I am to lazy to look for it now but one guy did research based on 1000 games, tomatoes were equally spread in his and enemy team, so don't say you get them more)

 

Now we need to know why your performance rating is jumping so hard up and down.

So we need answers on:

1) did you started several (or one long) stock grind?

2) have you changed your pc/settings so now you have less fps?

3) are you influenced by heavy packet loss with the servers?

4) did you started playing tanks that are heavily team dependant? (like they can't carry on their own)


Very good analyzis,take my hat for that.

Que 1 :No such thing,only got 1 grind going,french td line and i'm at tier 8

Que:2 Nothing at all.

Que:3 Isnt everybody that?? But it has become better latley.

Que:4 got 1 that is dependet on team,but nearly stopped playing with it after the patch.

And once again thankyou AN225 for making an effort to responde to my questions:smile:


Edited by MalteMullvad, 01 March 2014 - 06:36 PM.


AN225 #12 Posted 01 March 2014 - 07:40 PM

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Ok, now that we know that, let's go even deeper :)

 

http://www.noobmeter...20140301_143755

 

These are your stats for period of 9th February to 1st of March, almost one month.

I took only the most played ones, there are more of course, but they have really low number of battles compared to these.

 

Tank    /tier/    number of battles/   win ratio

 

1 FV215b (183)     10       42      52.38%
2 T110E4     10 35 34.29%
3 GW Tiger     9 34 47.06%
4 Waffenträger auf E 100     10 31 41.94%
5 AMX AC Mle. 1948     8 29 37.93%
6 M48A1     10 27 37.04%
7 T62A     10 20 60.00%
8 T57 Heavy     10 18 33.33%
9 T92     10 15 33.33%

 

 

These are most played tanks of yours for that month.

As you see only 2 tanks have more then 50% win ratio, while 5 of them have less then 40%.

 

Now, don't take this as offense or something, i am trying to be real and as you saw so far trying to help.

 

You are doing really really bad in your t10 tanks, well most of them. Only in 183 and t62a you are showing good stats. With t62a really good thou.

With E4 you have 34%, M48 with 37%, T57 and T92 with 33%, Wt 100 thingy with 41%.

This is really poor.

Ac mle that you grind is bad as well.

 

Especially that in t10 games team depends on you a lot, way more then in t6 for example.

Losing t6 tank can be compensated fast, losing one t10 not so much.

 

Now i haven't seen you in combat so i can't judge what you are doing wrong but for sure you are doing something wrong.

Trying to guess on blind would be insane.

 

It would be best if you can post some of the replays in those tanks so we can see how you play.

 

If you can post it, I will look into it and give you my opinion what you should improve etc.

Maybe someone else will look too, having more opinions is better of course :)



MalteMullvad #13 Posted 01 March 2014 - 08:04 PM

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Wow! i'm impressed!

I dont use stats in that sense that i look up and check how much wn7/8 i have.I only check 1 thing that matters to me,and that is win/lose ratio.And ofc to have fun.

What you are saying here only gives me more confidence that this has to do with the latest patch.Have tried to get replay's but i get so much lagg it wont be be able to judge what i'm doing wrong or right.Basically it becomes unplayable for me.

You wouldnt believe the amount of 15-3 matches i have been in the latest two weeks.

I wished that i kept record of these,but it was too depressing.

I really appriciate the effort you have put in here.

And just a note: i had a win of 63% before the patch with my E4,as above it has gone downhill since,down to 58%,nervwrecking if u ask me.....



AN225 #14 Posted 01 March 2014 - 08:39 PM

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Win ratio is a sum of all stats. wn7/8, accuracy, average dmg, average xp, etc. everything influence win ratio.

If you identify the weak link you then know what you have to improve.

 

If you say you have that much lag then he is to blame, and it more or less started with the latest patch, perhaps intensified would be the right word.

 

It looks like we found out who to blame :)

 

WG published today something about latency issues, perhaps they will solve it soon :)

 

If it is unplayable just find something else to do while they fix the lag, there is no point loosing your nerves for nothing :)






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