Jump to content


Win Rate Fluctuations - why oh why, whats the maths

win rate maths matchmaking

  • Please log in to reply
38 replies to this topic

para4502 #1 Posted 25 March 2015 - 09:23 PM

    Corporal

  • Player
  • 57411 battles
  • 176
  • [BRT_6] BRT_6
  • Member since:
    05-07-2011

I have been steadily but slowly clawing myself up from an appalling win rate - am now running 50% for last 25000 battles (I know im sad).

 

I seem to get runs of losses, what is the statistical chances of this and how long should they last? Should I just go and play another game for a while sometimes?

Help!!



Avange_sevenfold #2 Posted 25 March 2015 - 09:30 PM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Player
  • 8019 battles
  • 351
  • Member since:
    01-12-2013
49520 battles! Holy cow! 

_b_ #3 Posted 25 March 2015 - 09:35 PM

    Brigadier

  • Player
  • 55203 battles
  • 4,017
  • Member since:
    04-06-2011
You could try to limit games a day to only one or max four different vehicles ... try to find the three you like the best and/or do best in ... and just play those for a few days .. see if that doenst help?

moogu #4 Posted 25 March 2015 - 09:36 PM

    Corporal

  • Player
  • 14584 battles
  • 159
  • [BG_WP] BG_WP
  • Member since:
    12-08-2012

View Postpara4502, on 25 March 2015 - 08:23 PM, said:

 

Help!!

 

oh boy , you seem pretty desperate , just enjoy the game 



an0ther #5 Posted 25 March 2015 - 09:38 PM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 32833 battles
  • 1,778
  • [WJDE] WJDE
  • Member since:
    06-15-2011
Don't worry about the winrate - do the best you can

5_InchFl0ppy #6 Posted 25 March 2015 - 09:51 PM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 40720 battles
  • 1,646
  • [-MM] -MM
  • Member since:
    06-22-2012

I haven't played in awhile and nor do I intend to, but the only way to win more is to play better. If you manage to play at around 2000 wn8 or more you should easily win over 55% win rate consistently.

 

By the way consistency is the key word here and its one of the things that I lack at times also. Its all well and good hitting over 3-4k wn8 for the day, but if you mess up for the next 3 days playing it will average itself out.

 

Also there is nothing wrong with wanting to improve your stats, as winning more=better exp/credits and in my opinion it also means you have more fun. 

 



VladPomar #7 Posted 25 March 2015 - 10:05 PM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 14458 battles
  • 794
  • Member since:
    06-14-2012

1.You shouldn't care about your stats.

2.At your number of battles I assume you already know what tanks you like to drive, if you get a losing strike try playing your fav. vehicles.


Edited by VladPomar, 25 March 2015 - 10:06 PM.


Obsessive_Compulsive #8 Posted 25 March 2015 - 10:07 PM

    General

  • Player
  • 25942 battles
  • 8,048
  • [ADUK] ADUK
  • Member since:
    09-09-2014

View PostVladPomar, on 25 March 2015 - 10:05 PM, said:

1.You shouldn't care about your stats.

2.At your number of battles I assume you already know what tanks you like to drive, if you get a losing strike try playing your fav. vehicles.

 

we shouldnt he? are you his boss ? stats represent progress.. who does not want that?

VladPomar #9 Posted 25 March 2015 - 10:15 PM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 14458 battles
  • 794
  • Member since:
    06-14-2012

View PostSmeeeeg_Heeeeed, on 25 March 2015 - 10:07 PM, said:

 

we shouldnt he? are you his boss ? stats represent progress.. who does not want that?

 

Yes, progress in a video game, very impressive. You know what else are video games good for? FUN

Instead of checking your WR every 2 hours and feeling bad because you lose battles and ruin your stats you could actually try to have fun in the game.

If you are good you're gonna have good stats, if you're bad, you're gonna have bad stats. Either way your main purpose in the game should be having fun, not raising your WR.



TsundereWaffle #10 Posted 25 March 2015 - 11:01 PM

    Field Marshal

  • Player
  • 27169 battles
  • 11,016
  • [LEWD] LEWD
  • Member since:
    03-31-2013
Well checking my stats every hour makes me happy and is fun since I like to fap to good stats. Your argument is irrelevant :trollface:

Obsessive_Compulsive #11 Posted 25 March 2015 - 11:14 PM

    General

  • Player
  • 25942 battles
  • 8,048
  • [ADUK] ADUK
  • Member since:
    09-09-2014

View PostVladPomar, on 25 March 2015 - 10:15 PM, said:

 

Yes, progress in a video game, very impressive. You know what else are video games good for? FUN

Instead of checking your WR every 2 hours and feeling bad because you lose battles and ruin your stats you could actually try to have fun in the game.

If you are good you're gonna have good stats, if you're bad, you're gonna have bad stats. Either way your main purpose in the game should be having fun, not raising your WR.

why do you assume FUN is not the main purpose. Very strange logic you apply to this discussion. are you drunk?



Siimcy #12 Posted 25 March 2015 - 11:18 PM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 21705 battles
  • 1,813
  • Member since:
    02-03-2011

View PostVladPomar, on 25 March 2015 - 09:15 PM, said:

 

Yes, progress in a video game, very impressive. You know what else are video games good for? FUN

Instead of checking your WR every 2 hours and feeling bad because you lose battles and ruin your stats you could actually try to have fun in the game.

If you are good you're gonna have good stats, if you're bad, you're gonna have bad stats. Either way your main purpose in the game should be having fun, not raising your WR.

 

Well the other guy is kinda right, not winning a lot isn't fun to me.

VladPomar #13 Posted 25 March 2015 - 11:22 PM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 14458 battles
  • 794
  • Member since:
    06-14-2012

View PostSmeeeeg_Heeeeed, on 25 March 2015 - 11:14 PM, said:

why do you assume FUN is not the main purpose. Very strange logic you apply to this discussion. are you drunk?

 

Because the guy was "steadily but slowly clawing himself up from an appalling win rate" 

Does that sound like fun to you?



Obsessive_Compulsive #14 Posted 26 March 2015 - 12:00 AM

    General

  • Player
  • 25942 battles
  • 8,048
  • [ADUK] ADUK
  • Member since:
    09-09-2014

View PostVladPomar, on 25 March 2015 - 11:22 PM, said:

 

Because the guy was "steadily but slowly clawing himself up from an appalling win rate" 

Does that sound like fun to you?

 

Well im sure he is having fun or he wouldnt be playing at all would he.. its a given the fun thing that is.

Dominus_Imperatoriis #15 Posted 26 March 2015 - 12:28 AM

    Second Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 15667 battles
  • 1,002
  • Member since:
    11-25-2013

View Postpara4502, on 25 March 2015 - 08:23 PM, said:

I have been steadily but slowly clawing myself up from an appalling win rate - am now running 50% for last 25000 battles (I know im sad).

 

I seem to get runs of losses, what is the statistical chances of this and how long should they last? Should I just go and play another game for a while sometimes?

Help!!

 

Bad news for you... In accordance with your current scores (49536 matches and 49.09% win rate), you would need to win the next 971 random matches to increase your overall win rate to 50%.

 

That is 971 victories in a row, which is almost impossible. A more possible outcome would be 2 wins for 1 defeat. That results in 1457 matches where you win 971 and lose 486.



Ephemerich #16 Posted 26 March 2015 - 12:56 AM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 31826 battles
  • 1,973
  • Member since:
    03-18-2013

When I'm in a good mood I can stand to 6-7 loses in a row, other days 3-4... Anything below %65 when I play solo and %75 when I'm in platoon is just enough for me to quit and start reading some books.

Tbh losing is not the problem, If the enemy team plays well then they deserve a win, no problem. But the thing that makes me wanna rage quit is those, lets call them, E100 drivers who push the arty away to take its bush.


Edited by Ephemerich, 26 March 2015 - 12:58 AM.


para4502 #17 Posted 26 March 2015 - 11:11 PM

    Corporal

  • Player
  • 57411 battles
  • 176
  • [BRT_6] BRT_6
  • Member since:
    05-07-2011

Just to be clear - I do enjoy this game, however I have now got to a point where I have all T10 tanks. In part this obviously made it harder/win rate worse as I had to grind tanks/lines/types that I was not at my best at. I did enjoy getting them all in a bit of a masochistic way!

 

 

I understand that getting my overall WR to a point where I don't get abuse will be hard - however I am pleased that my last x battles and WN8 etc. are showing improvement. What I was really asking about was those losing streaks - sometimes I just feel I would do better pushing the 'battle' button and going for a cig!! What is the likelihood of a losing streak of 10? 20? 30? I have seen all of these!!


 

thanks



____prophet____ #18 Posted 27 March 2015 - 12:06 PM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 27977 battles
  • 1,652
  • Member since:
    01-30-2015
As regards losing streaks, match making plays a huge role. I will not say more about its randomness because this topic always results in a useless argument, but if you have a bad team in 30 games, and a good team in 5 games, the result is logical. Over time this effect levels out. If your recent WN8 is consitently good, I wouldn't worry about losing streaks. They happen to everybody. Of course, if your team gets completely wiped in 2 minutes, that will affect your WN too, but my point is look at your recent stats, and if your WN8 is improving on a regular basis, you will win more in the long run.

Naut #19 Posted 27 March 2015 - 12:22 PM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 27240 battles
  • 1,551
  • Member since:
    01-14-2012

View Postpara4502, on 26 March 2015 - 10:11 PM, said:

Just to be clear - I do enjoy this game

 

thanks

 

When i look at your sig - i see a steady increase of your winrate. You are learning and you get better. Its just very slow.

If its so important to you to get better, faster, then i can only give you the advice to search for your mistakes with every death you experience. Watch other good people play (streams or youtube reviews of tanks and so on) and listen to their advice.

 

I can see that you played ALOT of premium tank battles. Did you get them from the start, or did you buy them after you reached that tier? Its important that you learned the basics in low tiers before playing premium 8's  for example. If you experience a hard time in high tier, just play more low tier and the skill requirements will drop too, making it easier for you to get better stats.

 

Other than that i cant really help you without actually seeing you play so i can only make the assumption that you somehow in all those battles miss still the basics of tanking and map positioning.



BigFellas_Dad #20 Posted 27 March 2015 - 12:40 PM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 41718 battles
  • 1,610
  • Member since:
    06-19-2013

Win rate fluctuations, im going through a huge fall recently as I just lose more than I win and I really don't know why.  I have 54.2% over all and 1560wn8.  Over the last 30 days i've played 462 games with a WN8 of 2237 and achieved a massive 47.84% win rate, all solo.    So im getting little better win rate than a bot and yet a solid blue performance.

 

heyho.







Also tagged with win rate, maths, matchmaking

1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users