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Win Rate Fluctuations - why oh why, whats the maths

win rate maths matchmaking

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RichardNixon #21 Posted 27 March 2015 - 12:51 PM

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View PostBigFellas_Dad, on 27 March 2015 - 12:40 PM, said:

Win rate fluctuations, im going through a huge fall recently as I just lose more than I win and I really don't know why.  I have 54.2% over all and 1560wn8.  Over the last 30 days i've played 462 games with a WN8 of 2237 and achieved a massive 47.84% win rate, all solo.    So im getting little better win rate than a bot and yet a solid blue performance.

 

That recent WN8 value is probably bogus. Some sites don't deal correctly with expected values updates, so they essentially chuck any bonus you got from the update into your recent results. The value of 1475 WN8 over 527 games on WoTLabs is more likely to be correct.

 

48% winrate isn't too surprising with 1500 WN8 and a high average tier. Probably somewhat unlucky, but not exceptional.

 

 



tajj7 #22 Posted 27 March 2015 - 01:25 PM

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View PostVladPomar, on 25 March 2015 - 09:15 PM, said:

 

Yes, progress in a video game, very impressive. You know what else are video games good for? FUN

Instead of checking your WR every 2 hours and feeling bad because you lose battles and ruin your stats you could actually try to have fun in the game.

If you are good you're gonna have good stats, if you're bad, you're gonna have bad stats. Either way your main purpose in the game should be having fun, not raising your WR.

 

Fun for me is winning and doing well in the game, also improving helps me get more wins and more good games, thus stats are important to check the progress.

 

 



SilentFear #23 Posted 27 March 2015 - 01:29 PM

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View PostVladPomar, on 25 March 2015 - 09:15 PM, said:

 

Yes, progress in a video game, very impressive. You know what else are video games good for? FUN

Instead of checking your WR every 2 hours and feeling bad because you lose battles and ruin your stats you could actually try to have fun in the game.

If you are good you're gonna have good stats, if you're bad, you're gonna have bad stats. Either way your main purpose in the game should be having fun, not raising your WR.

 

Soo getting your arse handed to you is fun - but kicking arse in game is not ?!?! Wait wut ?

And you are sooo very wrong. Most ppl that play game dont jump in the first match and instantly get good - there is few like that but most are not. Instead its the will to learn and improve that makes a good player - good. 

 

OP. Focus playing few tanks to relativley close gamestyle. This way you dont need to swtich you brain from TD playstile to med to heavy. Also playing whit few players of higher skill will help your improve further. 



Cannes76 #24 Posted 27 March 2015 - 03:33 PM

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View PostVladPomar, on 25 March 2015 - 10:15 PM, said:

 

Yes, progress in a video game, very impressive. You know what else are video games good for? FUN

Instead of checking your WR every 2 hours and feeling bad because you lose battles and ruin your stats you could actually try to have fun in the game.

If you are good you're gonna have good stats, if you're bad, you're gonna have bad stats. Either way your main purpose in the game should be having fun, not raising your WR.

 

I'll let you in on a little secret: Winning is more fun than losing.

OneSock #25 Posted 27 March 2015 - 03:37 PM

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Don't play any tank more than twice per day. This stops long losing streaks on given tanks.

 

If you win less than 50% of your first 5 games, then stop playing for the day.



D4nunax_ #26 Posted 27 March 2015 - 03:58 PM

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Is the way MM is designed.

Keep them all @ 50%.

 

Some deserve 10% and others 90%, but the magic MM does what he is designed to, and derp us all.

 

 



Ceeb #27 Posted 27 March 2015 - 04:00 PM

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View PostAvange_sevenfold, on 25 March 2015 - 08:30 PM, said:

49520 battles! Holy cow! 

 

Must be single, or have a very understanding partner.. 

 

(or a virgin) :teethhappy:


Edited by Ceeb, 27 March 2015 - 04:00 PM.


dennez #28 Posted 17 August 2015 - 11:04 AM

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View PostBigFellas_Dad, on 27 March 2015 - 12:40 PM, said:

Win rate fluctuations, im going through a huge fall recently as I just lose more than I win and I really don't know why.  I have 54.2% over all and 1560wn8.  Over the last 30 days i've played 462 games with a WN8 of 2237 and achieved a massive 47.84% win rate, all solo.    So im getting little better win rate than a bot and yet a solid blue performance.

 

heyho.

 

I'm experiencing exactly the same thing. wn8 is constant 2000-ish, but winrate is dropping like a brick...

D4nunax_ #29 Posted 17 August 2015 - 11:14 AM

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Its an old as F thread m8.

And always, during the summer vacation kids love to F us all, let aside the X2 of the past weekend.



dennez #30 Posted 17 August 2015 - 12:01 PM

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View PostPinkFloyd1965, on 17 August 2015 - 11:14 AM, said:

Its an old as F thread m8.

And always, during the summer vacation kids love to F us all, let aside the X2 of the past weekend.

 

Whoopsie.. The necro is real! :hiding:

 



Ceeb #31 Posted 17 August 2015 - 01:31 PM

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View PostLow_Lister, on 25 March 2015 - 09:07 PM, said:

 

we shouldnt he? are you his boss ? stats represent progress.. who does not want that?

 

have to say, progress is great, but I truly believe stats are a negative in this game. 

 

Why you think WoWS community don't want a XVM version for it? Stats over there are less in your face than WoT. As for AW, hell that game is just pure fun, couldnt even tell you what page the stats are on.

 

I work hard, I play hard but when it stops being Fun (the only reason to play a computer game) i'll move on.



Rincew1nd #32 Posted 17 August 2015 - 01:43 PM

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View PostDominus_Imperatoriis, on 26 March 2015 - 12:28 AM, said:

 

Bad news for you... In accordance with your current scores (49536 matches and 49.09% win rate), you would need to win the next 971 random matches to increase your overall win rate to 50%.

 

That is 971 victories in a row, which is almost impossible. A more possible outcome would be 2 wins for 1 defeat. That results in 1457 matches where you win 971 and lose 486.

 

That wouldn't result in having a 50% overall wins, because you forgot to count the 486 new losses.

OneSock #33 Posted 17 August 2015 - 03:25 PM

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My tips to improve WR.

 

1. Never play any tank more than twice per day. If you keep playing to get that 2x bonus, chances are the MM is gonna troll you.

2. If you lose 4 of your first 6 games, just give up for the day.

 

The worst thing you can do is to be sucked into thinking "this is just bad luck, surely I will win the next game" and then bam, next game MM gives you full tomato squad.:trollface:



white66666 #34 Posted 17 August 2015 - 03:45 PM

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In principal... Win rate is not realy up to you. People will say... "yea Im the best", or "learn to play" etc. With so many games behind you... that is not the case.

 

- There are 15 players in the team. You represent less than 7% chances for your win.

- you can get some "less experiance players" in your team (aka noobs). Cant do anything here

- 10 % of your team usualy do nothing (AFK, cooking in the same time, speaking on the phone...)

- MM is usualy "beeeeep"

- its not realy neccecary that you have noobs in your team. Other team can actualy be better.

 

People will tell you nice stories how you can carry the win etc. This is another "beeeeep". In very few cases you can carry the game. Its chances are also limited to specific tanks. And in 50% of time you will not be top tier anyway.

 

Then the game hits you also with ghost shots (perfectly aimed). Mutant penetration rules lately. And if you actualy fing a good tank... you can be sure Wargaming will nerf is to the ground soon.

 

Good stats are usualy related to luck. Period. 

 

Playing in plattons with more expreianced gamers can increase your chances a bit. Playing solo in random games: your doomed.

 

Play for fun, dont look at the stats (its bullsheet anyway)

 



Technocrat_Prime #35 Posted 17 August 2015 - 04:03 PM

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View Postpara4502, on 25 March 2015 - 09:23 PM, said:

(I know im sad).

 

 

You are. Anyone who actually cares about stats in any video game is.

TheR3dBaron #36 Posted 17 August 2015 - 04:06 PM

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View Postdennez, on 17 August 2015 - 11:04 AM, said:

 

I'm experiencing exactly the same thing. wn8 is constant 2000-ish, but winrate is dropping like a brick...

 

At least OP is doing stuff right. He is on 1281 WN8 and 53% WR over his last 1000 battles. A really old thread :)

 

View PostOneSock, on 17 August 2015 - 03:25 PM, said:

My tips to improve WR.

 

1. Never play any tank more than twice per day. If you keep playing to get that 2x bonus, chances are the MM is gonna troll you.

2. If you lose 4 of your first 6 games, just give up for the day.

 

The worst thing you can do is to be sucked into thinking "this is just bad luck, surely I will win the next game" and then bam, next game MM gives you full tomato squad.:trollface:

 

I think you are wrong on both counts here.

 

1. Don't just play to get the x2 bonus, but grind tanks without x2 as playing it repeatedly, will make it easier for you how to learn to play a tank. Playing it once in a blue moon will only put you off playing it.

2. Losing 4 out of 6 games, for most people, means there is only one which went the wrong way. The sample size is too small to draw any conclusions.

 

In general, your average, will somewhat reflect your performance, but it doesn't exclude days where you win 1 out of 10 or 9 out of 10.



spuriousmonkey #37 Posted 17 August 2015 - 06:22 PM

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I stop playing when I feel i play badly. Not when i lose.

dennez #38 Posted 18 August 2015 - 08:14 AM

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I finally (hopefully)  ended my losing streak by platooning more. Used to do 80% solo and 20% platoons, now i do 50/50.

 



HugsAndKisses #39 Posted 18 August 2015 - 08:28 AM

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View Postdennez, on 17 August 2015 - 12:01 PM, said:

 

Whoopsie.. The necro is real! :hiding:

 

 Considering how the debate took off yet again, it was obviously warranted :teethhappy:







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