Jump to content


percentage of hit calculations - for given (target) tank

percentage hit calculation

  • Please log in to reply
9 replies to this topic

Dragoljub77 #1 Posted 06 February 2016 - 04:14 PM

    Private

  • Player
  • 29140 battles
  • 22
  • [1FP] 1FP
  • Member since:
    07-08-2014

Hello,

 

Q: If I play with T-44 with LB-1 gun (dispersion of this gun is 0.35), and I see AMX 13 90 (facing me) at distance of 467m what is a probability of hitting that tank?

A: According to my calculations it is 85.10%

 

I made some calculations about percentage of hit for given tank (as target), gun dispersion (of shooter) and given distance between two tanks, with assumption that target tank facing shooter with front side.

 

Because calculations are made with computer simulation, calculation for each tank is time demanding (around two hours for each tank). So far I made calculations for 7 tanks: AMX 13 90, G.W. Tiger P, Type 64, T-44, T49, M41 Walker Bulldog, IS-3 (Hull only)

 

You can find and explore results at: http://memorygamesen...t-calculations/

 

Here is result example for IS-3 (Hull only)

 

hitratio7.png

 

enjoy,

D


daddlar #2 Posted 06 February 2016 - 11:23 PM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 28987 battles
  • 923
  • [D0NG] D0NG
  • Member since:
    01-11-2013

http://wiki.wargaming.net/en/Battle_Mechanics#Accuracy_and_Dispersion

95.45% of all shots will land within specified dispersion.

 

Did you count with or without crew skills, consumables and equipment?



Dragoljub77 #3 Posted 07 February 2016 - 01:18 AM

    Private

  • Player
  • 29140 battles
  • 22
  • [1FP] 1FP
  • Member since:
    07-08-2014

Thank you for this link.

I did not know for that data (95.45%  or 2 std.dev.) I used (3 std. dev.) 99.73% ... which means that

1. so far calculated data are more optimisitic

2. that I will have to recalculate results.

 

no, I did not calculate with crew skills, crew skills, consumables and equipment

 

Tnx again 

D



Dragoljub77 #4 Posted 07 February 2016 - 03:35 AM

    Private

  • Player
  • 29140 battles
  • 22
  • [1FP] 1FP
  • Member since:
    07-08-2014

I have recalculated results for AMX 13 90 (so far) with a proper standard deviation.

 

So, now for: 

Q: If I play with T-44 with LB-1 gun (dispersion of this gun is 0.35), and I see AMX 13 90 (facing me) at distance of 467m what is a probability of hitting that tank?

 

Answer is :

A: According to my calculations it is 67.06%

(for 100% crew)

 

New results will be posted every day at : http://memorygamesen...-calculations/ 

so you can explore them.

 

gl & hf

D

 



tigerstreak #5 Posted 07 February 2016 - 08:46 AM

    Colonel

  • Beta Tester
  • 23512 battles
  • 3,546
  • [BL33T] BL33T
  • Member since:
    12-23-2010

Depends on, if wg are creating a loss with mm +rng.

If so, expect your team to do an impossible amount of 0 damage shots, while the enemy doesnt



Dragoljub77 #6 Posted 08 February 2016 - 09:06 PM

    Private

  • Player
  • 29140 battles
  • 22
  • [1FP] 1FP
  • Member since:
    07-08-2014

So far I made calculations for these 7 tanks: AMX 13 90, G.W. Tiger P, Type 64, T-44, T49, M41 Walker Bulldog, IS-3 (Hull only)

 

I will add calculations for 1-3 tanks per day.

You can explore them on:

http://memorygamesen...t-calculations/

 

gl & hf,

D


Dragoljub77 #7 Posted 10 February 2016 - 10:24 PM

    Private

  • Player
  • 29140 battles
  • 22
  • [1FP] 1FP
  • Member since:
    07-08-2014

I recalculated results according to patch 9.6 calculations

 

Currently available results are for:

1) AMX 13 90 - probability of hitting that tank (anywhere)

Example result:  IS-3 with LB-9 , distance 410m , probability of hit: 50.98%

Example result 2:  T-49 with 152mm , distance 500m , probability of hit: 29.41%

 

2) IS-3 Probability of hitting that tank (hull only, without tracks)

Example result:  IS-3 with LB-9 , distance 410m , probability of hit: 42.75%

Example result 2:  T-49 with 152mm , distance 500m , probability of hit: 24.31%

 

All resuts can be found at: 

http://memorygamesen...t-calculations/

and can be explored by clicking on image (and moving a mouse over image)

New results are coming soon.

gl & hf

D

 



Dragoljub77 #8 Posted 15 February 2016 - 07:17 PM

    Private

  • Player
  • 29140 battles
  • 22
  • [1FP] 1FP
  • Member since:
    07-08-2014

I made a test calculation about one question which I found interesting.

If we assume that two same tanks facing each other in duel have the same probability of winning or losing (50%:50%), a question is: Can I ask that question for two different tanks?

 

Or: If "weaker" tank is full health and it is in a duel with "stronger" tank, how much stronger tank has to be damaged so that both tanks have same chances in that duel?

 

I am writing "weaker" and "stronger" because it is not clear right away which one is weaker and which one is stronger if both tanks are the same tier and same class (this depends at least on health and gun)

 

Next example is for Type 64 and Panther II and here it is clear which one is the stronger tank.

 

Type 64: HP 580, reload for 2.85 sec, damage 115

Panther II: HP 1500, reload for 6.33 sec, damage 240

 

If Type 64 is full of HP, Panther II has to be on 690 HP (46% of HP) so that both tanks have the same chance of winning the duel.

(Because Panther kill type in 18.99 sec in three shots, and for that amount of time Type makes 690 damage in 6 shots)

(Note: this calculation is very precise because it does not use DPM and it is calculated for single shot)

This calculation is good for distances up to 100m because up to that distance probability of hitting the target is about 99%)

 

But if we calculate distance between tanks and gun dispersions we get different results which depend on distance (of probability of hitting the target tank, with big assumption that every hit makes damage)

 

(Next three results are using DPM in calculation and because of that there is difference in calculation for 100m)

 

So, if Type 64 is full of health and in duel with Panther II on these distances, Panther II can get in duel with 50:50 chances if it has next amount of health:

100m, 617 HP (41%) – (in calculation without DPM it is: 46%)

200m, 581 HP (39%)

300m, 547 HP (36%)

 

(In this calculations probabilities of hitting target tank are taken from calculations I make and publish at http://memorygamesen...t-calculations/

and also, these calculations uses next DPM values: 2420.75 for Type 64 and 2272.8 for Panther II)

 

My conclusion for this example would be: Type 64 is not so small tanks as Panther II is so good sniper.

 

gl & hf

D



Dragoljub77 #9 Posted 17 February 2016 - 12:47 AM

    Private

  • Player
  • 29140 battles
  • 22
  • [1FP] 1FP
  • Member since:
    07-08-2014

Hi,

I made a calculation about: Probability of winning duel (two tanks facing and shooting each other at given distance) for:

 

 IS-3 vs. T-44

 

Assumptions:

1) T-44 only shots in Lower Glacis of IS-3

2) T-44 start duel with full Health (1300)

3) IS-3 shots in the middle of T-44

4) Every shot of both tanks penetrates

 

 

For given HP of IS-3 (from 3 to 1500) and

Given distance between two tanks (1 to 600m)

 

Input data:

HPtank1=1500;

ActRelTime1=11.22;

Disp1=0.4;

AimTime1=3.4;

dmg1=390;

 

HPtank2=1300;

ActRelTime2=6.99;

Disp2=0.35;

AimTime2=2.3;

dmg2=250;

 

Result image:

aliveprob3.png

 

From this image you can read: Probability of IS-3 winning a duel for selected distance and starting IS-3 Health

 

If you want to analyze results click on link and then click on image

http://memorygamesengine.com/wot-duels/

 

Other useful results can be found here:

http://memorygamesen...t-calculations/

 

 

Gl&hf,

D



Dragoljub77 #10 Posted 20 February 2016 - 06:20 PM

    Private

  • Player
  • 29140 battles
  • 22
  • [1FP] 1FP
  • Member since:
    07-08-2014

I have some new results which I want to share with you.

I made a calculation about tank duel (two tanks facing each other and shooting at given distance) for given HP of a first tank and with assumption that second tank is full of HP

Calculation requires probabilities of hit of given tank at given distance which I publish at:

http://memorygamesengine.com/world-of-tanks-percentage-of-hit-calculations/

 

The Results of tanks duels you can find at

http://memorygamesengine.com/wot-duels/

 

So far only three calculations are made:

  1. Type 3 Chi-Nu Kai vs T-34 (Tier V) - probability of Chi-Nu Kai winning tank duel vs. T-34 full of HP, for given HP of Chi-Nu Kai and given distance between them.
  2. T-34 (Tier V) vs Type 3 Chi-Nu Kai – purpose of this calculation is to recheck first calculation , but it also tells that T-34 on full HP has 14% vs. full HP Chi-Nu Kai (on far distance, and much less on close distance).
  3. IS-3 (lower glacis plate) vs T-44  - calculation tell about probability of IS-3 winning duel vs. full HP T-44, for given IS-3 health and given distance if T-44 only shoots at lower glacis plate of IS-3 (I find this calculation interesting)

 

Here is one calculation example:

 

You can examine results by clicking on a link and then clicking on a image.

 

gl & hf

D






1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users