TL/DR: This is a statistical simulation ( a very simple one ) done by me in my free time..
If you want to learn what is it, just read below the original message down there.
In short, it is basically creating random skilled teams 15vs14 and adding a constant player in each of the matches and look that If that player can change the outcome.
and doing this for players with different skill levels. If you dont want to read what has happened at the start and what is the way of the simulation working,
Just follow the link below and go for the latest update and see how skill affects the outcome of a battle and how many battles cannot be affected by skill..
All the comments, additions, negative or positive critism, pointing my faults, errors etc etc.. are wellcome.. in case they are written in a civil manner..
Otherwise please GTFO! Thanks..
THE NUMBERS ARE CONSTANTLY UPDATED! PLEASE FOLLOW THE THREAD FROM THE LATEST NUMBERS FROM HERE
Here is the Original thread starter!
Most of the guys who know me here knows also that I love playing with numbers, data mining, working on them etc etc..
A great aspect of the forum goers suggest that because of the random nature of the MM and not including the skill levels of the players,
the result is depending on your team, not your skill and the games decided from the beginning.
I am not talking about the rigged MM threads, they are non-sense but talking about the random MM works for you.
In short, it is said that, your individual skill level doesnt affect the outcome of the battle.
I want to try this in some random numbers.. and did a little numbers experiment. I will give the results here, not gonna comment on them.
Commenting part is on the community.
I can share my detailed work with anyone who wants to check the numbers and calculations, but it is basically very simple.
What did I do..
first I find an onlie die roller..
Then I throw 15xD100 and sum all the results (Automatic in the site)
then I Throw 14xD100 and sum all the results...
These are the skill levels of a 15vs14 matchup.
and after that, I added different skills into the sum of the 14, and look at the result.
Basically bigger number wins the battle..
These are the skill levels I used, The numbers is a combination of skill and the tank and the grind level etc. I am not taking them individual skill levels. I am taking them their affect on the battle.
50: a total average player.. carries his/her weight half of the time
60: a little competent player, who can perform good in certain tanks but who struggles with the stock grinds
70: an above average player, who plays good on certain tanks, better on some, worse on some. But mostly carry his own weight or do better than that.
80: A ver good player, who knows what to do.. carry mostly.. do better than most of the players in almost every tank he/she drives
90/100 unicums and super unicums.. mostly try/can carry all the matches they get in. they overperfom %95 and %98 of the community. Basically wot gods.
I threw dice for 200 times..
The average of the red teams skill after 200 battles is : 759,37
The average of the green teams skill after 200 battles (with 14 players) is : 698,94
and respectively the averages after the addition of the last players skill are; (as you can imagine)
The red team won, 127 of 200 matches against a 14 player green team. a %37 WR
After that I wanted to look how many matches that an individual player can turn byhimself.
After adding the player (A) into the roster, he turned 17 losses into the wins. - 90/110
Player (B) turned, 20 - 93/107
Player © turned, 29 - 102/98
Player (D) turned, 42 - 115/85
Player (E) turned, 43 - 116/94
Player (F) turned, 53 losses into wins. 126/74
Another note and I think it is important, the best player even cant help the team win 74 matches, and the red team lost 73 matches when it is even 15vs14
So basically %36,5 of the wins for our player doesnt entirely depend on him but the team. He may do nothing and stil win those matches.
and similarly, %36 of the losses for our player, doesnt depend/caused by him, because even he was a ubersuperultra unicum, he couldnt prevent the loss..
These are the preliminary results, I will add more results.
200 is not a huge number but it is ok I think to get some results and fire some civil discussion.
I am really asking for "Rigged MM" guys to stay away with their rigged mm arguments because that is not the issue here.
The sole purporse of this thread and work is to try to shed some light on the question "HOW DOES PLAYER SKILL AFFECTS THE RESULTS WHEN THE MM DOESNT INCLUDE SKILL AND BE TOTALLY RANDOM?"
Any data you want me to add, please ask freely and I will try,
If you have any questions about the work itself or suggestions please feel free to contribute,
But do that all in a civil way, the arguments like "YOU KNOW NOTHING NOOB! YOUR WORK IS WRONG" will not be taken seriously.
You may think I am doing something or everything wrong, please tell me WHAT IS WRONG that you think..
PS: Here is another statistical work done by me to answer another question asked by the community numerous times.
Edited by Excavatus, 20 April 2017 - 01:08 PM.