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How player skill affects the WR?

statistics work numbers WR skill

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qpranger #41 Posted 21 April 2017 - 12:59 PM

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View PostExcavatus, on 21 April 2017 - 01:41 PM, said:

Actually the macros are set in the excel and I just enter the die results

and I love using the numeric keyboard..

 

Now who's trolling cleverly? :)



brumbarr #42 Posted 21 April 2017 - 12:59 PM

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View PostUllakkomorko, on 21 April 2017 - 11:58 AM, said:

Good job so far! There's a certain flair to doing this one simulated match at a time.

 

I'm still wondering what effects normalising skills towards the middle (by which I mean assuming that average skills are more likely than the extremes) would have. I've never used XVM but I assume that the probability of having two or more super unicums (say 95-100) or utter lossmachines (0-5) are too high in your current system. Obviously the two extremes cancel each other out and tend towards the average but it would give a greater weight our brave individual players skill.

 

I'm not much of a coder myself but I have an add on to Excel that I could build the simulation in. I'll try to summon the will to do that which is hard due to it being Friday afternoon.

 

But in his simulation, arent avg skilledp layers already more likely than extremes?  IF you roll the a 100sided dice and an take an avg player to be between 25 and 75, and a unicum is 99 and 100. Then you automaticly have a   normal distribution of  players/skill level

jabster #43 Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:02 PM

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View Postbrumbarr, on 21 April 2017 - 11:55 AM, said:

 

Very interesting work. While it gives a great explanation for how WR depends on skill in a random MM. I was wondering if there are any variables you can tweek to get it to agree better with the game. What I mean is that your unicum wins max 62%. Whereas in the game, unicums playing solo usualy win around 65-66% of their games. Is there anything you could adjust for this?

 

That's not really they way it works though. Player F just contributes twice as much an a average player which doesn't mean that they are a unicum. The question that should be answered is how much more does a player need to contribute to achieve a 65% win-rate.

lonigus #44 Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:12 PM

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View PostExcavatus, on 21 April 2017 - 11:30 AM, said:

and finally, our ubersuperultraunicumpurple player F,

Turned 228 of the losses into the wins and he has a total of %61,60 WR by winning 616 out of 1000

 

Seems Pretty accurate for me as a super "laboratory" test enviroment. A huge role plays also the tank type one would chose to play. Iam 100% sure that my WR would fluctuate alot when I would play my T54 easily going to above 62%, but I doubt I would scratch anything above 55% in a span of 1000 games while playing tier 8 tanks.

 

But then something like this happens and it turns all stat simulations around. I was performing on super unicum levels apart from one shitty day. Was not 1000 games, but 277 games is also not that low of a sample. Winrate 54.5%... :unsure:

 

Posted Image

 

The change in player behavior from a few years to now is huge. EU is turning more and more into crazy Russian levels where games are decided within the first few minutes where not even godlike skills can help. From my experience I have to sweat my pants off much more frequently then ever before if I even want to think about raching stable 60% WR sessions.


Edited by lonigus, 21 April 2017 - 01:17 PM.


brumbarr #45 Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:18 PM

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View Postjabster, on 21 April 2017 - 01:02 PM, said:

 

That's not really they way it works though. Player F just contributes twice as much an a average player which doesn't mean that they are a unicum. The question that should be answered is how much more does a player need to contribute to achieve a 65% win-rate.

 

What I meant was tweaking it so that his player F  has the same stats as a unicum would in WOT.

jabster #46 Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:23 PM

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View Postbrumbarr, on 21 April 2017 - 12:18 PM, said:

 

What I meant was tweaking it so that his player F  has the same stats as a unicum would in WOT.

 

I'm not sure what you mean. What would you tweak?

Excavatus #47 Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:32 PM

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View Postbrumbarr, on 21 April 2017 - 02:55 PM, said:

 

Very interesting work. While it gives a great explanation for how WR depends on skill in a random MM. I was wondering if there are any variables you can tweek to get it to agree better with the game. What I mean is that your unicum wins max 62%. Whereas in the game, unicums playing solo usualy win around 65-66% of their games. Is there anything you could adjust for this?

 

Yep,

I believe adding another columnn for another individual player for skill level 110 (my unicums has 100) will give me super unicum stats I believe,

I will add it shortly to look at,

but after this message, I am gonna give the results for a new simulation,

which runs random battles for 3x50, 3x75 and 3x100 skill level toons..

the numbers are... woaw!

especially the grey zone..

 

I can say this clearly,

playing in toon, actually gives the individual to more power to affect the battle..



shishx_the_animal #48 Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:40 PM

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Excavatus, your whole experiment is wrong because you didn't weigh in the rigged MM and the amount of bought Fort Knox packages.

Edited by shishx_the_animal, 21 April 2017 - 02:34 PM.


Ullakkomorko #49 Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:44 PM

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View Postshishx_the_animal, on 21 April 2017 - 01:40 PM, said:

the amount of bought Fort Knox packages.

 

This shouldn't be an issue as the number of bought Fort Knox's should be equal across all players so it should even out. Plus, as Excavatus said, he's adding a superunicum player of 110. That +10 should be close to the win rate boost given by a Fort Knox. Or am I underestimating its power?



qpranger #50 Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:48 PM

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BTW, Fort Knox is available again right now!!

#happydays



Excavatus #51 Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:49 PM

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Ok, update time.

This time, I put another idea into the sim.

What is the role of the toons?

and the grey zone we talk about lately here? Is affected by toons?

So I removed our 6 individual friends and put 3 seperate toons instead

T1: 3 fully average players who has 50 skill points for each

T2: 3 very competent players who has 75 skill points for each

T3: 3 unicum players who dominate the field with 100 skill points each

 

And here are the numbers


Number of matches played: 500

Number of red team roflstomps: 83 / %16,60

Number of 14-player green team roflstomps: 87 / %17,40

Number of draws: 1 / %0,2


Now lets look at our toons,

For these 500 matches


Toon T1, turned 173 of the losses into the wins, and he has a total of %52,00 WR by winning 260 out of 500

Toon T2, turned 267 of the losses into the wins, and he has a total of %70,80 WR by winning 354 out of 500

Toon T3, turned 329 of the losses into the wins, and he has a total of %83,20 WR by winning 416 out of 500


As for the turn rates


T1: can turn losses into wins with %41.89 probability

T2: can turn losses into wins with %64.65 probability

T3: can turn losses into wins with %79.66 probability


Now the grey zone,

For the solo sim,

the grey zone, which means the battle numbers which you can actually win or loose by playing good or bad was %23.2

When it comes to tooning, you can see that the grey zone here is much much waste and reaches out to %66 of the games played in toon,

 

 



Excavatus #52 Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:54 PM

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first of all..

you know how I want to derail topics and make fun of it.. It is in the definition of being a dinger,

But I cant answer each and everyone of you.. so take my likes..

On the other hand, shnks the animal.. I will add fort nox packages into the sim later,

that way I can show everyone that buying it will automatically gives you another 1000WN8 + %25 WR

so I can get my promised fortnox from the HQ...

ehem..!! so I can show the true face of the MM...

 

On the other hand, about the numbers..

these numbers telling that,

If you play in toon,

The roflstomps you encounter will drop down by half..

Just by tooning...

I like that..



jabster #53 Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:58 PM

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View PostExcavatus, on 21 April 2017 - 12:54 PM, said:

first of all..

you know how I want to derail topics and make fun of it.. It is in the definition of being a dinger,

But I cant answer each and everyone of you.. so take my likes..

On the other hand, shnks the animal.. I will add fort nox packages into the sim later,

that way I can show everyone that buying it will automatically gives you another 1000WN8 + %25 WR

so I can get my promised fortnox from the HQ...

ehem..!! so I can show the true face of the MM...

 

On the other hand, about the numbers..

these numbers telling that,

If you play in toon,

The roflstomps you encounter will drop down by half..

Just by tooning...

I like that..

 

How are you working out whether a game was a roflstomp or not?

brumbarr #54 Posted 21 April 2017 - 02:04 PM

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View Postjabster, on 21 April 2017 - 01:58 PM, said:

 

How are you working out whether a game was a roflstomp or not?

His definition of a roflstomp is a game where you would have won no  even if you were not in the battle.



Excavatus #55 Posted 21 April 2017 - 02:05 PM

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View Postjabster, on 21 April 2017 - 03:58 PM, said:

 

How are you working out whether a game was a roflstomp or not?

 

I understand you are asking how I deduce from an excel sheet the roflstomp games.. and gonna answer accordingly..

 

The first column in the sheet contains the skill level of 15player red team..

and the second column contains the skill level of 14player green team for solo, or 12player green team for tooning action,

 

lets say, columns A and B

So, If the Column A is bigger than B, that means red team wins against 15vs14, and in reverse,

If at the start, 14 player / 12 player green team skill level is higher than the 15 player red team..

that means, there is no match to turn around, our player or toon doesnt needed to win,

that means a roflstomp win for our players/toons

or, after putting our solo unicum or unicum toon into the game,

If green team still cant win, that means a roflstomp win for red team..

 

basically this..

example for solo,

 

Red team skill level, 963

Green team (14) skill level, 780

 

So, I was using 6 different players with 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 skill levels..

none of them can turn this game around..

 

Red Roflstomp

 

reverse the numbers,

The game is a win even for 14vs15..

 

Green roflstomp

 


Edited by Excavatus, 21 April 2017 - 02:07 PM.


jabster #56 Posted 21 April 2017 - 02:18 PM

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View PostExcavatus, on 21 April 2017 - 01:05 PM, said:

 

I understand you are asking how I deduce from an excel sheet the roflstomp games.. and gonna answer accordingly..

 

The first column in the sheet contains the skill level of 15player red team..

and the second column contains the skill level of 14player green team for solo, or 12player green team for tooning action,

 

lets say, columns A and B

So, If the Column A is bigger than B, that means red team wins against 15vs14, and in reverse,

If at the start, 14 player / 12 player green team skill level is higher than the 15 player red team..

that means, there is no match to turn around, our player or toon doesnt needed to win,

that means a roflstomp win for our players/toons

or, after putting our solo unicum or unicum toon into the game,

If green team still cant win, that means a roflstomp win for red team..

 

basically this..

example for solo,

 

Red team skill level, 963

Green team (14) skill level, 780

 

So, I was using 6 different players with 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 skill levels..

none of them can turn this game around..

 

Red Roflstomp

 

reverse the numbers,

The game is a win even for 14vs15..

 

Green roflstomp

 

I can't say that means it's a roflstomp but only a win as you're not modelling the result in a tank numbers.



TungstenHitman #57 Posted 21 April 2017 - 02:25 PM

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View Postshishx_the_animal, on 21 April 2017 - 12:40 PM, said:

Excavatus, your whole experiment wrong because you didn't weigh in the rigged MM and the amount of bought Fort Knox packages.

 

Maybe we need a 4th thread asking exactly the same question? maybe the results will be different

Excavatus #58 Posted 21 April 2017 - 02:27 PM

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View Postjabster, on 21 April 2017 - 04:18 PM, said:

I can't say that means it's a roflstomp but only a win as you're not modelling the result in a tank numbers.

 

I disagree..

It counts as a roflstomp because the individual player we are adding the green team is the only constant and adding him does not any affect on winning or loosing..

So basically that is a roflstomp for him..

 

PS: for a 50 skill level player, I count roflstomp losses from the 100 skill level.. (i.e. even the unicum couldnt win that match)



Excavatus #59 Posted 21 April 2017 - 02:29 PM

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View PostTungstenHitman, on 21 April 2017 - 04:25 PM, said:

 

Maybe we need a 4th thread asking exactly the same question? maybe the results will be different

 

are there any previous threads contaning any type of numbers, statistics, experiments, etc etc.?

If so that means I missed it/them. Please point me towards..

 

But the only threads ı've seen that people say skill has no affect, and other say skill has affect

the rest is bla bla bla..

 

So I've decided to add some real ampiric information into the discussion..



TungstenHitman #60 Posted 21 April 2017 - 02:49 PM

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View PostExcavatus, on 21 April 2017 - 01:29 PM, said:

 

are there any previous threads contaning any type of numbers, statistics, experiments, etc etc.?

If so that means I missed it/them. Please point me towards..

 

But the only threads ı've seen that people say skill has no affect, and other say skill has affect

the rest is bla bla bla..

 

So I've decided to add some real ampiric information into the discussion..

 

umm... sure... o by the way I did attach my own "stats" on how I dropped to 40 something % and bounced back to 60 something % with no difference in approach or playstyle so... yes there was a brief stats and experiment but you go ahead and drag the tits out of the topic lol

Edited by TungstenHitman, 21 April 2017 - 02:49 PM.






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