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Probabilities of victory


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kiljo #1 Posted 11 June 2017 - 03:27 AM

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Honestly, I had 15 battles and 1 victory, 1 draw and 13 defeats, I came back to play the game because I had stopped playing because things happened in the past, with the new match making, I thought, that it had changed but it did not seem like it, Because as stupid in the game that I was would have at least two more teams that would have won even if I had died in the beginning, by the probabilities.......... That's weird

Homer_J #2 Posted 11 June 2017 - 03:47 AM

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View Postkiljo, on 11 June 2017 - 03:27 AM, said:

Because as stupid in the game that I was would have at least two more teams that would have won even if I had died in the beginning, by the probabilities..

 

Rubbish.

 

You can't use any probabilities over 13 battles.

 

Even tossing a coin you will get 13 heads in a row.



Achibot #3 Posted 11 June 2017 - 05:08 AM

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View PostHomer_J, on 11 June 2017 - 02:47 AM, said:

Even tossing a coin you will get 13 heads in a row.

 

1/2¹³? He better have some time on his hands man......


Edited by Achibot, 11 June 2017 - 05:08 AM.


_EXODUZ_ #4 Posted 11 June 2017 - 06:11 AM

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Try increasing those probabilities by playing better. We'd be happy to help, by the way.

spuriousmonkey #5 Posted 11 June 2017 - 06:57 AM

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Do you find it really Edited?

 

Edited 

 

I am not surprised.

 

This post has been edited by the moderation team due to inflammatory remarks.


Edited by VMX, 13 June 2017 - 10:32 AM.


Jigabachi #6 Posted 11 June 2017 - 07:26 AM

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Sooo... you basically want WG to rig your matches so that you win more, although you play badly.

Did I get that right?



Sfinski #7 Posted 11 June 2017 - 08:15 AM

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Mate, everyone loses some games in the row, I had 8-10 losses (didn't count really) just yesterday. 

ZlatanArKung #8 Posted 11 June 2017 - 08:15 AM

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View PostAchibot, on 11 June 2017 - 05:08 AM, said:

 

1/2¹³? He better have some time on his hands man......

 

Well.

It would take longer.

 

His 'ability' in battle is as good as if he was AFK all battles. Which increases his chance of losing.

His teams are always 1 tank short. And if he is top tiered in a 3-5-7 that has a pretty big impact.



HassenderZerhacker #9 Posted 11 June 2017 - 08:31 AM

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View PostHomer_J, on 11 June 2017 - 03:47 AM, said:

 

Rubbish.

 

You can't use any probabilities over 13 battles.

 

Even tossing a coin you will get 13 heads in a row.

 

agree. happened to me while playing roulette at a casino. lost all my evening's earnings :-(

and then I saw it again: 13 times black in a row... so I left, lol.



spamhamstar #10 Posted 11 June 2017 - 08:47 AM

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View Postspuriousmonkey, on 11 June 2017 - 05:57 AM, said:

Do you find it really surprising Edited?

 

 

 

I am not surprised.

 

Seriously? 5 tanks he's played a grand total of 15 games in?  Guess I shouldn't mention your 43 games in the A20with 33 avg dmg?   

 

[edited] dingers.


Edited by VMX, 13 June 2017 - 10:35 AM.


spuriousmonkey #11 Posted 11 June 2017 - 08:49 AM

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View Postspamhamstar, on 11 June 2017 - 09:47 AM, said:

 

Seriously? 5 tanks he's played a grand total of 15 games in?  Guess I shouldn't mention your 43 games in the A20with 33 avg dmg?   

 

[edited] dingers.

 

That's yesterday's performance. That was what OP was talking about.

 

Feel free to check out my performance yesterday.:

http://www.wotzilla..../spuriousmonkey

I had a bad WR also, but at least I tried somewhat.


You can check out Edited

 

This post has been edited by the moderation team due to inflammatory remarks.

 

 


Edited by VMX, 13 June 2017 - 10:38 AM.


spamhamstar #12 Posted 11 June 2017 - 09:41 AM

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View Postspuriousmonkey, on 11 June 2017 - 07:49 AM, said:

 

That's yesterday's performance. That was what OP was talking about.

 

Feel free to check out my performance yesterday.:

http://www.wotzilla..../spuriousmonkey

I had a bad WR also, but at least I tried somewhat.


You can check out Edited

 

 

I refer you back to the comment from the right honourable Homer J:  "You can't use any probabilities over 13 battles.".  Although it does seem everyone is a little confused as the stat sites say kiljo played 15 games in past 24 hours, winning 2 of them & drawing 1.  If you notice he did also mention that he had stopped playing which may be why his stats make his account look like it was purchased on ebay.  I believe his point was that being as the avg WoT player is pretty bad, however he played he would have expected to win more than 2 games.

 

You on the other hand clearly sat at the back, farming damage & not really helping your team much if we're going to start judging people on stats from 1 days results. 


Edited by VMX, 13 June 2017 - 10:42 AM.


TungstenHitman #13 Posted 11 June 2017 - 10:00 AM

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MM doesn't cater for stupid ppl, I had 50% win rate yesterday, teams were generally balanced in terms of tanks but when it came to the players using them.. o dear!! A lot of battles were our team choosing to grab defeat from the jaws of victory, you know those ones, where your team has practically won but chooses to.. look that's how it goes. All you can do personally is your best and hope there's one or two others on the team pull through to the end.

Was robbed of a Kalobanovs and Pools also, RNG decided no, do I care? Only for the Pools I suppose but it is what it is



Technocrat_Prime #14 Posted 11 June 2017 - 10:04 AM

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You have exactly as much chance to predict the outcome of a battle in advance as you have predicting an untampered roulette wheel. You may know that "zero" has a chance of coming up of 1:36, but when exactly that will be is unknown.

spuriousmonkey #15 Posted 11 June 2017 - 12:19 PM

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View Postspamhamstar, on 11 June 2017 - 10:41 AM, said:

 

I refer you back to the comment from the right honourable Homer J:  "You can't use any probabilities over 13 battles.".  Although it does seem everyone is a little confused as the stat sites say kiljo played 15 games in past 24 hours, winning 2 of them & drawing 1.  If you notice he did also mention that he had stopped playing which may be why his stats make his account look like it was purchased on ebay.  I believe his point was that being as the avg WoT player is pretty bad, however he played he would have expected to win more than 2 games.

 

You on the other hand clearly sat at the back, farming damage & not really helping your team much if we're going to start judging people on stats from 1 days results. 

 

If you cannot manage to do 15 games and not even have a single tomato game, but instead just have black stats, you just cannot complain about the losses, because you, in all probability, have contributed significantly to those losses. 

 

I don't really understand why you are moaning about this fact Edited . He isn't average. He isn't even playing close to average. He is not even deep red. He has black stats. And you lose? And you complain about your losses? How detached are you from reality if you do this? How detached from reality are you when you whine about when someone points this out?

 

Here is two replays from the last two days. Unfortunately the only ones I uploaded. There you can see how much I farm damage from the back.

 

http://wotreplays.co...ey-amx_13_57_gf

http://wotreplays.co...ey-amx_13_57_gf

(distance traveled in these replays 2km and 3,64km)

These replays show how I hug the redline throughout the game. I can upload all the games of yesterday when I am on my other computer.

 

maybe you need to take a reality pill and chill.

 


This post has been edited by the moderation team due to inappropriate remarks.


Edited by VMX, 13 June 2017 - 11:15 AM.


malachi6 #16 Posted 11 June 2017 - 12:24 PM

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View PostSfinski, on 11 June 2017 - 08:15 AM, said:

Mate, everyone loses some games in the row, I had 8-10 losses (didn't count really) just yesterday. 

 

You don't count with that sig?

 

Is irony lost on you?
 



1stWarlord #17 Posted 11 June 2017 - 12:29 PM

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Well the only constant in these 15 battles are you. You must be doing something wrong

iztok #18 Posted 11 June 2017 - 01:20 PM

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View Post1stWarlord, on 11 June 2017 - 12:29 PM, said:

Well the only constant in these 15 battles are you. You must be doing something wrong

View PostHomer_J, on 11 June 2017 - 03:47 AM, said:

 

Rubbish.

 

You can't use any probabilities over 13 battles.

QED.



spamhamstar #19 Posted 11 June 2017 - 02:05 PM

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View Postspuriousmonkey, on 11 June 2017 - 11:19 AM, said:

 

If you cannot manage to do 15 games and not even have a single tomato game, but instead just have black stats, you just cannot complain about the losses, because you, in all probability, have contributed significantly to those losses. 

 

I don't really understand why you are moaning about this fact like a little girl. He isn't average. He isn't even playing close to average. He is not even deep red. He has black stats. And you lose? And you complain about your losses? How detached are you from reality if you do this? How detached from reality are you when you whine about when someone points this out?

 

Here is two replays from the last two days. Unfortunately the only ones I uploaded. There you can see how much I farm damage from the back.

 

http://wotreplays.co...ey-amx_13_57_gf

http://wotreplays.co...ey-amx_13_57_gf

(distance traveled in these replays 2km and 3,64km)

These replays show how I hug the redline throughout the game. I can upload all the games of yesterday when I am on my other computer.

 

maybe you need to take a reality pill and chill.

 

I've neither lost nor complained about losing.  His stats are above avg, just not recently. 

 

How "detatched from reality" are you when you completely miss his point & attack his stats, when he stated in his OP "as stupid in the game that I was". 

 

Having missed that you may have also missed the title of the thread & his final sentence: "at least two more teams that would have won even if I had died in the beginning, by the probabilities.......... That's weird".  

 

So what he's actually saying is that in 15 games he would have expected more than 2 teams that were good enough to carry him to victory.  He's right about that, as even if you have a neutral or no effect in battle you'll still win 46-48% on avg.  Then again mm is random & 15 is a very small sample size, so losing all 15 wouldn't be completely unexpected.

 

Your response crying about his stats was laughbly ill-considered as they were part of the point he was making.



wsatnutter #20 Posted 11 June 2017 - 02:11 PM

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View Post1stWarlord, on 11 June 2017 - 11:29 AM, said:

Well the only constant in these 15 battles are you. You must be doing something wrong

 

oh the callousness of it




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