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greasle #1 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:01 AM

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Can someone explain me the following ?

 

I Play about a 50% winrate did over 14.000 games and 3000+ games every month 

 

And I noticed strange stats. 

As I Play a 50% winrate it should be logical that series  of win or lose should have the same numbers.

But I noticed that 7 or 8 games lose in a row occur more often than 7 or 8 games win in a row.  8 games lose in a row happens to me about every 3 weeks. 8 games win in a row never happend to me.

This is not logical whit a 50% winrate.    

 

please give me insight why this happens.

 



Shnuks #2 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:03 AM

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Voodoo magic.

qpranger #3 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:03 AM

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Because it is rigged.

TungstenHitman #4 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:07 AM

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Simple, you may have 7-8 losses in a row and never have the same chain of wins but it still gets averaged to around 50% win rate across the other battles in which you may pick of the odd 2 wins for every loss.

 

Sort of like this L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-W-W-L-W-L-W-W-L-L-L-W-L-W-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-L-W-W-W-L-W-W



1ncompetenc3 #5 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:11 AM

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View Postgreasle, on 11 July 2017 - 11:01 AM, said:

As I Play a 50% winrate it should be logical that series  of win or lose should have the same numbers.

 

Why?

greasle #6 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:13 AM

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View PostTungstenHitman, on 11 July 2017 - 10:07 AM, said:

Simple, you may have 7-8 losses in a row and never have the same chain of wins but it still gets averaged to around 50% win rate across the other battles in which you may pick of the odd 2 wins for every loss.

 

Sort of like this L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-W-W-L-W-L-W-W-L-L-L-W-L-W-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-L-W-W-W-L-W-W

Thats clear.    But not what i wonder about.  I dont wonder about my 50%. The question is about the series.

 

  

 



spuriousmonkey #7 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:15 AM

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View Post1ncompetenc3, on 11 July 2017 - 12:11 PM, said:

 

Why?

 

Exactly. Logic doesn't dictate that it should be like that at all. Every process has different characteristics and to make a statement that something should have a specific pattern you really need to know exactly how that process works, have a theory, test that theory, see how it matches reality and then adjust the theory accordingly.

 

If your brain is the only source of logic then you are bound to make errors.



greasle #8 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:16 AM

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View Post1ncompetenc3, on 11 July 2017 - 10:11 AM, said:

 

Why?

 

well "the same" I should say "close to the same".   Why ?   Because its  in my case a 50% chance to win or lose.   Like flipping a coin.  The chance of series should be equal.

jabster #9 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:18 AM

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View Postgreasle, on 11 July 2017 - 10:16 AM, said:

 

well "the same" I should say "close to the same".   Why ?   Because its  in my case a 50% chance to win or lose.   Like flipping a coin.  The chance of series should be equal.

 

The chance is but that's not how random works is it?

greasle #10 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:21 AM

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View Postjabster, on 11 July 2017 - 10:18 AM, said:

 

The chance is but that's not how random works is it?

 

it is.  Rnd is a very fixed variable.    A random number between 0 and 200 mas the chance to hit 2 as big as 189.   and makes the chance to hit below 50 50%  and makes the chance to hit below 100 50%

 


Edited by greasle, 11 July 2017 - 11:40 AM.


TungstenHitman #11 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:26 AM

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View Postgreasle, on 11 July 2017 - 10:13 AM, said:

Thats clear.    But not what i wonder about.  I dont wonder about my 50%. The question is about the series.

 

  

 

 

About the series of losses and how a player of 50% win rate can possibly have a series that long? Again kinda simple I think.. it's a randomly constructed battle(apparently)) so you can be drawn bottom tier for a really long chain in which you will realistically not be in the driving seat to dominate the battle on a personal level and if you also get a team of stupids then your'e really in for some fun but I guarantee you even in a chain a 7-8 or more defeats there are always a few that were actually close and for whatever reason it just fell the wrong side of the result in which it would take a better player, like a 60% unicum to pinch those close defeats and turn a L-L-L-L-L-L-L into a L-L-W-L-W-L-W 

jabster #12 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:28 AM

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View Postgreasle, on 11 July 2017 - 10:21 AM, said:

 

it is.  Rnd is a very fixed variable.    A random number between 0 and 200 mas the chance to hit 2 as big as 189.   and makes the chance to hit below 50 50%

 

 

The chance is the same but random means, well random things happen surely? Firstly you seem to be basing your statements on what you noticed, not what you recorded, and secondly you are one player among many.

 

Would you have created a thread if you thought that your win and loss streaks were balanced?



Kozzy #13 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:37 AM

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Seriously, the amount of kids who play WoT that also appear to have skipped basics mathematics in school isTooDamnHigh.png

greasle #14 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:37 AM

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View Postjabster, on 11 July 2017 - 10:28 AM, said:

 

The chance is the same but random means, well random things happen surely? Firstly you seem to be basing your statements on what you noticed, not what you recorded, and secondly you are one player among many.

 

Would you have created a thread if you thought that your win and loss streaks were balanced?

if win and loss streaks were balanced everthing was logical and I would not have any questions.

 



qpranger #15 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:44 AM

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I wish Dara O'Briain played WOT and explained the maths behind the game to us in his own unique brilliant fashion.

1ucky #16 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:45 AM

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Short answer:
Anything that has an occurance probability of under 100% may not happen.

Long answer:
Chances of some pair of series happening can be the same, but outcomes are not the same thing as chances.
For example, I could win the lottery today and try some other numbers combination next week, - the chances of those numbers coming up would be the same, but I'd still have to be insanely lucky to win again, and it probably won't happen.

Anyway, you could follow your logic and come to the right conclusions, by either thinking it through or experimenting, or both, but you don't even do that.

You start and stop on step one: Your win rate/chance overall, or for one battle (50%).

Why don't you calculate the probability of 2 wins/losses in a row?
Or 3?
Or ..., or 8, ...?
Then you would understand why it seldom happens, etc.

You can always google "statistics" or "logic", or ask something on the forums, that's all fine.
But all of that can only inspire you or show you some direction, - you can't miss out on personally thinking stuff through, if you want to understand anything at all.



spuriousmonkey #17 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:48 AM

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https://www.youtube....h?v=6R5MqxcKdV8

 

man re-enacts on TV winning a car with a scratch lottery ticket. Wins 250.000 during re-enactment.



jabster #18 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:51 AM

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View Postgreasle, on 11 July 2017 - 10:37 AM, said:

View Postjabster, on 11 July 2017 - 10:28 AM, said:

 

The chance is the same but random means, well random things happen surely? Firstly you seem to be basing your statements on what you noticed, not what you recorded, and secondly you are one player among many.

 

Would you have created a thread if you thought that your win and loss streaks were balanced?

if win and loss streaks were balanced everthing was logical and I would not have any questions.

 

 

If all players had balanced win and loss streaks then it would be rigged not random.



Sir_Bad #19 Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:52 AM

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View Postgreasle, on 11 July 2017 - 10:01 AM, said:

Can someone explain me the following ?

 

I Play about a 50% winrate did over 14.000 games and 3000+ games every month 

 

And I noticed strange stats. 

As I Play a 50% winrate it should be logical that series  of win or lose should have the same numbers.

But I noticed that 7 or 8 games lose in a row occur more often than 7 or 8 games win in a row.  8 games lose in a row happens to me about every 3 weeks. 8 games win in a row never happend to me.

This is not logical whit a 50% winrate.    

 

please give me insight why this happens.

 

 

The way you put it, I think your problem is selective perception.

As you said, you noticed the losing streaks and remember them, while most of streaks where you are winning will be forgotten soon after. It happens to me as well sometimes.

 

As others already pointed out, if you end up at 50% winrate, the number of battles you win and lose is obviously even.



greasle #20 Posted 11 July 2017 - 12:04 PM

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View Postjabster, on 11 July 2017 - 10:51 AM, said:

 

If all players had balanced win and loss streaks then it would be rigged not random.

 

that would give ever player a 50% winrate.    Again my question is not about my winrate. Ist about why series of win and lose, apparently, are fare from the same in numbers in case of a 50% winrate.

 







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