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replay analyzer ?


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HassenderZerhacker #1 Posted 13 July 2017 - 07:22 PM

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is there some kind of program out there that can analyze replays and draw stats from them, including all players' WN8 values at the time of battle?

 

my feeling is that I increasingly get unfavorable matchmaking that causes my winrate to fall despite me generally performing better in battle, and I would like to prove it.

wot_mm.jpgwot_graphs.jpg


Edited by HassenderZerhacker, 13 July 2017 - 07:23 PM.


JocMeister #2 Posted 13 July 2017 - 07:31 PM

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No dude. You dont get "unfavorable matchmaking". You camp the redline. You lose games.

 

More in depth answer: You camp the redline and do 2-3 shots of damage per game you will lose most games. 


Edited by JocMeister, 13 July 2017 - 08:21 PM.


Spurtung #3 Posted 14 July 2017 - 07:42 AM

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View PostHassenderZerhacker, on 13 July 2017 - 08:22 PM, said:

my feeling is that I increasingly get unfavorable matchmaking that causes my winrate to fall despite me generally performing better in battle, and I would like to prove it.



HassenderZerhacker #4 Posted 16 July 2017 - 04:14 PM

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Actually, I have narrowed down the problem to afternoons and evening hours.

From approx. 5 am to 12am, matchmaking is balanced or even sometimes in my favor, but in the afternoons, especially after 4 pm, it seems I get comparatively weaker teams with less chances to win.



Junglist_ #5 Posted 16 July 2017 - 04:21 PM

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View PostHassenderZerhacker, on 16 July 2017 - 03:14 PM, said:

Actually, I have narrowed down the problem to afternoons and evening hours.

From approx. 5 am to 12am, matchmaking is balanced or even sometimes in my favor, but in the afternoons, especially after 4 pm, it seems I get comparatively weaker teams with less chances to win.

 

Haha seriously rather than accepting the simple fact that it's random you come with ridiculous theory that not only WG rigs the mm against you for whatever reason but to not be too harsh on you they gives you a window where it's fair

HassenderZerhacker #6 Posted 16 July 2017 - 04:27 PM

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View PostJunglist_, on 16 July 2017 - 04:21 PM, said:

 

Haha seriously rather than accepting the simple fact that it's random you come with ridiculous theory that not only WG rigs the mm against you for whatever reason but to not be too harsh on you they gives you a window where it's fair

 

Well, believing that it's random would be ignoring the reality I see.

And it has not always been like this. It began about 2 or 3 months ago.

look at my stats on here: http://www.noobmeter...cker/530821548/

everything is improving, but winrate goes down.

and I don't play less aggressively.

 

all I want is the means to prove it


Edited by HassenderZerhacker, 16 July 2017 - 04:35 PM.


Junglist_ #7 Posted 16 July 2017 - 05:43 PM

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View PostHassenderZerhacker, on 16 July 2017 - 03:27 PM, said:

 

We.ll, believing that it's random would be ignoring the reality I see.

And it has not always been like this. It began about 2 or 3 months ago.

look at my stats on here: http://www.noobmeter...cker/530821548/

everything is improving, but winrate goes down.

and I don't play less aggressively.

 

all I want is the means to prove it

 

I see 49.6% with 1130 wn8 over last 1k battles and 55% with 1600 wn8 over last week and I know wn8 is broken but still I dont see anything unusual there, what winrate do you think you deserve with 1k wn8? 

Achibot #8 Posted 16 July 2017 - 06:12 PM

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View PostJunglist_, on 16 July 2017 - 04:43 PM, said:

I see 49.6% with 1130 wn8 over last 1k battles and 55% with 1600 wn8 over last week and I know wn8 is broken but still I dont see anything unusual there, what winrate do you think you deserve with 1k wn8? 

 

There is no way to directly correlate WN8 and Win Rate. My recent WN8 is 997 with a recent WR of 55.17%. My overall WN8 is 1658 with an overall WR of 55.05%.

 

WN8 does not measure what you do to win games, in fact it is so heavily biased towards damage that it's essentially worthless at measuring anything else.



JocMeister #9 Posted 16 July 2017 - 08:31 PM

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View PostJunglist_, on 16 July 2017 - 04:21 PM, said:

 

Haha seriously rather than accepting the simple fact that it's random you come with ridiculous theory that not only WG rigs the mm against you for whatever reason but to not be too harsh on you they gives you a window where it's fair

 

Dont bother. Just look at the shitposts he has created over the last couple of months. And if you disagree with him he will just put you on his ignore list.

 

He is just another bad player who refuses to realize the problem is him and spends his days trying to come up with other excuses. 



HassenderZerhacker #10 Posted 16 July 2017 - 08:36 PM

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i won't argue that wn8 is not a good indicator for skill, but i point out that everything improves: damage, experience, wn8... except for winrate. my wn8 has improved significantly, and this allows to derive the conclusion that i did more damage with same playstyle, so i damaged the enemy more than before which in turn should continue to improve my winrate as it continuously did before...

 

by the way, the good wn8 was yesterday morning and this morning, it brought up my winrate to 15.14%. but tonight after 10 consecutive defeats in tier 9 i quit at 15.10% winrate. let's see what tomorrow morning brings.

 

i remain convinced that for whatever reason battles in the mornings are much more balanced and even often in my favor, while teams in the evening or more unfavorably balanced.

maybe i will screenshot all battles tomorrow


Edited by HassenderZerhacker, 16 July 2017 - 08:42 PM.


HassenderZerhacker #11 Posted 17 July 2017 - 06:09 AM

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so... just came out of a morning session, 5am - 7am European time.

 

Won: 11 (including all my tier 9 and tier 8)

Lost: 3 (1x Tiger I, 2x VK 30.01P)

 

soon going in again for a second morning session


Edited by HassenderZerhacker, 17 July 2017 - 06:13 AM.


HassenderZerhacker #12 Posted 17 July 2017 - 08:10 AM

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second session complete.  7:30 - 9:10

 

won: 11

lost: 4 (2x T-10, 2x VK 30.01P)

draws: 2 (t-10 and VK45.02B)

 

winrate back up to 50.13%...

 

pausing now.

the evening session will certainly be terrible again, with things like 8 losses in a row


Edited by HassenderZerhacker, 17 July 2017 - 11:22 AM.


shishx_the_animal #13 Posted 17 July 2017 - 09:07 AM

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I agree, the MM is totally rigged towards you!

OreH75 #14 Posted 17 July 2017 - 09:24 AM

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View PostHassenderZerhacker, on 17 July 2017 - 08:10 AM, said:

second session complete.

 

won: 11

lost: 4 (2x T-10, 2x VK 30.01P)

draws: 2 (t-10 and VK45.02B)

 

winrate back up to 50.13%...

 

pausing now.

the evening session will certainly be terrible again, with things like 8 losses in a row

 

Duh ofc you win more playing in the morning/afternoon at the european server..You most likely play against 12y old kids playing dads tanks because of big boom or against the WG bots which they apparently use according to some people. But in the evening real people come home from work, eat something and start shooting players that try to seal club on 12y olds during daytime...

HassenderZerhacker #15 Posted 17 July 2017 - 11:22 AM

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View PostOreH75, on 17 July 2017 - 09:24 AM, said:

Duh ofc you win more playing in the morning/afternoon at the european server..You most likely play against 12y old kids playing dads tanks because of big boom or against the WG bots which they apparently use according to some people. But in the evening real people come home from work, eat something and start shooting players that try to seal club on 12y olds during daytime...

 

why of course?

in every match there are plenty of people with higher WN8 than me. the match results should be more influenced by them than by me... yet I get 60 to 70% winrate in mornings as the team composition is either balanced or in my favor.

 

and then the complete opposite in the evening, team balance in majority unbalanced against me and winrate around 40 - 45%...


Edited by HassenderZerhacker, 17 July 2017 - 12:10 PM.


Homer_J #16 Posted 17 July 2017 - 12:05 PM

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View PostHassenderZerhacker, on 16 July 2017 - 04:14 PM, said:

Actually, I have narrowed down the problem to afternoons and evening hours.

From approx. 5 am to 12am, matchmaking is balanced or even sometimes in my favor, but in the afternoons, especially after 4 pm, it seems I get comparatively weaker teams with less chances to win.

 

I notice the same pattern but I don't have a persecution complex.  It's just that the better players come online in the afternoon and evenings.  You especially notice it as the school finishing time comes round across the timezones and those impeccably timed snapshots at cupolas steadily increase.

 

Just don't play afternoons and evenings if you are that worried about your win rate.



HassenderZerhacker #17 Posted 17 July 2017 - 12:09 PM

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View PostHomer_J, on 17 July 2017 - 12:05 PM, said:

I notice the same pattern but I don't have a persecution complex.  It's just that the better players come online in the afternoon and evenings.  You especially notice it as the school finishing time comes round across the timezones and those impeccably timed snapshots at cupolas steadily increase.

 

Just don't play afternoons and evenings if you are that worried about your win rate.

 

I don't have problems with better players being online, I have a problem with the opposing team consistently getting more good players than my own team, which leads to bad winrates in evenings.

 

did you notice that too?

do you think that is an optimal state of things?

why do you think it happens?


Edited by HassenderZerhacker, 17 July 2017 - 12:11 PM.


Headless_Rooster #18 Posted 17 July 2017 - 12:13 PM

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I have pondered why WR fluctuates so much day to day in a random match-up, besides the very low sample size (of battles per day) meaning any patterns we see are pretty much meaningless in the bigger picture, it still feels like there's more to the story - and there is IMO, it's about map rotation being more/less suitable for the group of tanks we happen to be playing at the time, all things being equal (skill level/mood etc.) it's the only thing that changes day to day.

 

As Homer_J has pointed out, if it's a time thing it's probably the playerbase demographic changing, but then why would that effect only your team and not the enemy? It must average out if the sample size is big enough.

 

No matter how it looks to our genetic tendency to recognise patterns (in the context of 'survival of the fittest' when a pattern threatens our survival we're genetically wired to stand more chance of remembering it - so we see patterns where there are none) there is no logic or reasoning as to why the MM should be 'fixed' against/for us, fixing it either way doesn't make any sense at all, there is no motive that makes any sense since the 'fix' might just as well be on a random enemy player so why bother?

 

And on that basis, looking for a 'fix' looks like a fools errand.

 

Edit to say: looking for data on this during the game could be effecting your mood and therefore your concentration, which could be effecting your gameplay, just uninstall XVM and enjoy the game, at least then you will be concentrating on the only thing you have an effect on, i.e. improving your own skill


Edited by Headless_Rooster, 17 July 2017 - 12:20 PM.


dtdp #19 Posted 17 July 2017 - 12:19 PM

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View PostHassenderZerhacker, on 17 July 2017 - 10:22 AM, said:

 

why of course?

in every match there are plenty of people with higher WN8 than me. the match results should be more influenced by them than by me... yet I get 60 to 70% winrate in mornings as the team composition is either balanced or in my favor.

 

and then the complete opposite in the evening, team balance in majority unbalanced against me and winrate around 40 - 45%...

 

maybe you just get tired in the evenings

- on averages you play 42 games per day, that is a lot, at least for me,  I know I would not be able to keep my concentration and cool head after > 15 battles 

 



HassenderZerhacker #20 Posted 17 July 2017 - 12:19 PM

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View PostHeadless_Rooster, on 17 July 2017 - 12:13 PM, said:

I have pondered why WR fluctuates so much day to day in a random match-up, besides the very low sample size (of battles per day) meaning any patterens we see are pretty much meaningless in the bigger picture, it still feels like there's more to the story - and there is IMO, it's about map rotation being more/less suitable for the group of tanks we happen to be playing at the time, all things being equal (skill level/mood etc.) it's the only thing that changes day to day.

 

As Homer_J has pointed out, if it's a time thing it's probably the playerbase demographic changing, but then why would that effect only your team and not the enemy? It must average out if the sample size is big enough.

 

No matter how it looks to our genetic tendency to recognise patterns (in the context of 'survival of the fittest' when a pattern threatens our survival we're genetically wired to stand more chance of remembering it) there is no logic or reasoning as to why the MM should be 'fixed' against/for us, fixing it either way doesn't make any sense at all, there is no motive that makes any sense since the 'fix' might just as well be on a random enemy player so why bother?

 

And on that basis, looking for a 'fix' looks like a fool errand.

 

not looking for a fix, looking for proof.

 

After some months of observation, I definitely know what has been going on since update 9.18.

Balanced or good teams leading to good WR in the mornings, bad teams leading to bad WR in the evenings.

I can reproduce the pattern consistently.

But I need to prove it.

 

Nature of the maps could have something to do with one's own performance, but shouldn't have a huge impact on teams' performance.

 

IMO, one factor worth looking at is premium vs. free accounts.






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