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Damage distribution statistical analysis.

low dmg low roll analysis normal distribution statistics

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Ulfarr #1 Posted 30 July 2017 - 09:59 PM

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Prompted by this thread, I decided to run an experiment in order to collect data about the distribution of damage and then do a rather simple analysis on them.

 

 

Experiment design:

 

Spoiler

 

Results:

Spoiler

 

Conclusions:

 

As seen in the frequency chart, some values (namely 49,52,55,60) come up more or less often ,respectively, than they should if one where to assume a normal distrubition, however the rest of the data do seem to follow such a distribution, ie the pair 49-61 (55 ±6) have virtually the same frequency, as they should.

 

In addition to the above, there is one more interesting result. Despite the fact that most frequent value (52) was a low roll, the gun in general overperformed with:

 

  • 44,91% of the shots at below the average of 55

  • 8,45% of the shots at the average of 55

  • 46,64% of the shot at above the average of 55

 

The above discrepancies could be a result of a still too small sample size.

 

 

Applying the results to the initial problem:

 

So, if we assume that damage does indeed follow a normal distribution, then why do we hit (too often) for less than our guns average damage?

 

The most often quoted response on the forum is "observer bias" meaning that we just remember when we are game were ruined by rng while we forget the times that a high roll saved our games.

 

Personally I believe it's less about observer bias and more of a propability issue, that just doesn't allow for a correct depiction of the damage distribution in the game results. In each match the amount of shots with full potenial for damage that do actually hit and pen the target is too limited to be considered a representative sample. Coupled with the larger range of possible values that high alpha guns get, the resulting figures could be well below the average and still following a normal distribution.

 

edit: added a table with the frequency of occurrence for each damage value (which I've forgotten to put in the initial post)

Attached Files

  • Attached File   Damage - Frequency distribution.png   16.57K

Edited by Ulfarr, 31 July 2017 - 08:20 AM.


Liviguy #2 Posted 30 July 2017 - 10:05 PM

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Have you came across a player on the North American server named 4tankersanddog, he has a YouTube channel of the same name and he also does similar exercises / experiments on WOT.

Ulfarr #3 Posted 30 July 2017 - 10:09 PM

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No, I had no knowledge of him.

Liviguy #4 Posted 30 July 2017 - 10:12 PM

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View PostUlfarr, on 30 July 2017 - 10:09 PM, said:

No, I had no knowledge of him.

 

You should look up his YouTube channel, he does some good stuff.

Ulfarr #5 Posted 30 July 2017 - 10:18 PM

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View PostLiviguy, on 30 July 2017 - 11:12 PM, said:

 

You should look up his YouTube channel, he does some good stuff.

 

 

Already doing it, thanks for telling me about him. 

 

(damn does he have lots of these vids)



Liviguy #6 Posted 30 July 2017 - 10:22 PM

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View PostUlfarr, on 30 July 2017 - 10:18 PM, said:

 

 

Already doing it, thanks for telling me about him. 

 

(damn does he have lots of these vids)

No problem, he is probably my favourite WOT channel, very good player too. I think his experiments are under the "tanking with science" playlist.


Edited by Liviguy, 30 July 2017 - 10:54 PM.


Ulfarr #7 Posted 31 July 2017 - 08:24 AM

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Updated the initial post, to add a table containing the actual frequencies of occurrence for each damage value.

 

 






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