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Losing streak?


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Damage_inc #1 Posted 31 July 2017 - 02:28 PM

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Am I the only one who thinks the standard of teams has gone down the drain? Attempting to even play is too difficult anyone else on this losing streak or is it just me? 

 



DuncaN_101 #2 Posted 31 July 2017 - 02:33 PM

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Bit of both?

It is well known that the average player is not great in this game (I mean look at me) but you might also just be having a sithy rng streak.


Kozzy #3 Posted 31 July 2017 - 02:35 PM

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View PostDamage_inc, on 31 July 2017 - 01:28 PM, said:

Am I the only one who thinks the standard of teams has gone down the drain? Attempting to even play is too difficult anyone else on this losing streak or is it just me? 

 

 

If the standards of the teams (i.e. your teams and the enemy teams) are going down, shouldn't you be finding it easier to overcome them and carry games?  Therefor you will win MORE games?

DurtiArry #4 Posted 31 July 2017 - 02:36 PM

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............. one contributing factor could be a few thou school kids with a little more time on their hands than usual.

 



Yakito #5 Posted 31 July 2017 - 02:39 PM

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Always the same. The amount of players that even comprehends any human language in a match is about 1 out 15.
It has always been like that. The sad part now is that these amebas have managed to get 40k battles while shooting once per match. I can't even...

Element6 #6 Posted 31 July 2017 - 02:43 PM

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View PostKozzy, on 31 July 2017 - 02:35 PM, said:

If the standards of the teams (i.e. your teams and the enemy teams) are going down, shouldn't you be finding it easier to overcome them and carry games?  Therefor you will win MORE games?

That would be a logical assumption....that requires an even distribution of players in each skill bracket. That is probably not the case with low samplesizes.

 

Personally I have played 78 battles over the last 10 days or so, almost exclusively LTs, and even if my WN8 for that period is almost 400 more than my average, average spots almost 150% higher than overall and even damage higher than overall, my WR for that period is not even 40%. Maybe WN8 is a little off since it's LTs, and I see my average XP is a little lower than overall.

I'm probably just doing something wrong, because before I went on holiday I also tried to play LTs exclusively, and it was the same. Ok stats compared to overall, but an abyssmal WR.



qpranger #7 Posted 31 July 2017 - 02:45 PM

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View PostKozzy, on 31 July 2017 - 03:35 PM, said:

 

If the standards of the teams (i.e. your teams and the enemy teams) are going down, shouldn't you be finding it easier to overcome them and carry games?  Therefor you will win MORE games?

 

Not all tanks are designed to carry a team of suiciders. 

Are you encouraging playing only a few tanks that are deemed OP? 

That would amount to resignation to the fact that the game is broken.



Kozzy #8 Posted 31 July 2017 - 02:56 PM

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View PostElement6_TheSprout, on 31 July 2017 - 01:43 PM, said:

That would be a logical assumption....that requires an even distribution of players in each skill bracket. That is probably not the case with low samplesizes.

 

Personally I have played 78 battles over the last 10 days or so, almost exclusively LTs, and even if my WN8 for that period is almost 400 more than my average, average spots almost 150% higher than overall and even damage higher than overall, my WR for that period is not even 40%. Maybe WN8 is a little off since it's LTs, and I see my average XP is a little lower than overall.

I'm probably just doing something wrong, because before I went on holiday I also tried to play LTs exclusively, and it was the same. Ok stats compared to overall, but an abyssmal WR.

 

View Postqpranger, on 31 July 2017 - 01:45 PM, said:

 

Not all tanks are designed to carry a team of suiciders. 

Are you encouraging playing only a few tanks that are deemed OP? 

That would amount to resignation to the fact that the game is broken.

 

I'll try and make this (even) simpler.  The MM does not care about player 'skill' when creating teams.  It picks two teams out of one pool of players.  If the players in the pool of available players are getting worse then everyone (particularly anyone who is better than the average of the pool) is getting an easier time and so should do better.  This is ultra-simple maths.
  
This is fairly logical and makes sense unless, of course, you guys are intimating that the system is trying to pick bad players only for YOUR teams... lol which, I'm sure you'll agree (as you are not retarded, right?) is nonsense.
 


TheDayWeDie #9 Posted 31 July 2017 - 03:05 PM

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In my humble opinion, losing streaks wouldn't be so annoying if the game would have a normal course. But noo....

 

Every single losing streak comes with -25%RNG accuracy, with a lot of misses and critical hits, with -25%RNG damage. That's the real problem.

 

I must say, this combination is very annoying. And it is always this way.



jack_timber #10 Posted 31 July 2017 - 03:06 PM

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Unlocked shiny new STRV 103b other day, first 2 battles on winning side:)

Next 8 on losing side:(

So was on 20% win rate, great.

Now it can't be me now can it? I blame other 15 players personally, the Red ones that is:)



Element6 #11 Posted 31 July 2017 - 03:07 PM

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View PostKozzy, on 31 July 2017 - 02:56 PM, said:

I'll try and make this (even) simpler.  The MM does not care about player 'skill' when creating teams.  It picks two teams out of one pool of players.  If the players in the pool of available players are getting worse then everyone (particularly anyone who is better than the average of the pool) is getting an easier time and so should do better.  This is ultra-simple maths.

  
This is fairly logical and makes sense unless, of course, you guys are intimating that the system is trying to pick bad players only for YOUR teams... lol which, I'm sure you'll agree (as you are not retarded, right?) is nonsense.

That's not what I tried to imply. What I tried to convey was that if the general quality of the playerbase is going down, the ratio of better players is also going down, so, as an example, player A can get much fewer capable players during a session of 50 battles than player B does. And I did write that this probably means that you can get skewed results in small samplesizes.

I thought that was pretty simple when I wrote it.



Kozzy #12 Posted 31 July 2017 - 03:09 PM

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View PostElement6_TheSprout, on 31 July 2017 - 02:07 PM, said:

That's not what I tried to imply. What I tried to convey was that if the general quality of the playerbase is going down, the ratio of better players is also going down, so, as an example, player A can get much fewer capable players during a session of 50 battles than player B does. And I did write that this probably means that you can get skewed results in small samplesizes.

I thought that was pretty simple when I wrote it.

 

Yeah that is still really stupid because the changes AFFECT BOTH TEAMS not just YOUR team.  

Element6 #13 Posted 31 July 2017 - 03:17 PM

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View PostKozzy, on 31 July 2017 - 03:09 PM, said:

Yeah that is still really stupid because the changes AFFECT BOTH TEAMS not just YOUR team.  

Ok, we are still talking about small samplesizes, ok? So;

 

You play 50 battles. I play 50 battles. There are 20 unicums, 50 great players and 80 very good players online when we play. The rest are below. Could you explain to me in simple terms how it is reasonable to assume that during these 50 battles, if you get a total of 8 unicums in your battes, why I too would get 8 unicums too? Random distribution isn't so accurate that it distributes "fairly" over such small samples.

Yes, over the course of several thousand battles we get more and more likely to have the same ratio of unicums, great and very good players in our teams, but not in small samplesizes, which this thread is about, since we are talking about losing streaks. A streak is a sample of deviating results in a limited samplesize.



jabster #14 Posted 31 July 2017 - 03:20 PM

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View PostYakito, on 31 July 2017 - 01:39 PM, said:

Always the same. The amount of players that even comprehends any human language in a match is about 1 out 15.
It has always been like that. The sad part now is that these amebas have managed to get 40k battles while shooting once per match. I can't even...

 

I'm surprised that your win-rate isn't much higher if that's the case.

Kozzy #15 Posted 31 July 2017 - 03:27 PM

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View PostElement6_TheSprout, on 31 July 2017 - 02:17 PM, said:

Ok, we are still talking about small samplesizes, ok? So;

 

You play 50 battles. I play 50 battles. There are 20 unicums, 50 great players and 80 very good players online when we play. The rest are below. Could you explain to me in simple terms how it is reasonable to assume that during these 50 battles, if you get a total of 8 unicums in your battes, why I too would get 8 unicums too? Random distribution isn't so accurate that it distributes "fairly" over such small samples.

Yes, over the course of several thousand battles we get more and more likely to have the same ratio of unicums, great and very good players in our teams, but not in small samplesizes, which this thread is about, since we are talking about losing streaks. A streak is a sample of deviating results in a limited samplesize.

 

I don't get your point.  Are you trying to say that YOU are less likely to get the teams comprised of the better players?  Also, what has this got to do with the core point of "overall player quality is going down and so are my chances to win" which is the nonsense I was trying to address.

Stat_Padder #16 Posted 31 July 2017 - 03:29 PM

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View PostDamage_inc, on 31 July 2017 - 01:28 PM, said:

Am I the only one who thinks the standard of teams has gone down the drain? Attempting to even play is too difficult anyone else on this losing streak or is it just me? 

 

 

Yeah.. saw you on our team and thought the same.

SilentFear #17 Posted 31 July 2017 - 03:32 PM

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View PostDamage_inc, on 31 July 2017 - 01:28 PM, said:

Am I the only one who thinks the standard of teams has gone down the drain? Attempting to even play is too difficult anyone else on this losing streak or is it just me? 

 

 

Sorta.

Change of quiality of players should in no manner affect your overall winrate.

 

That been said - unbalance in the tanks and MM can do that for you. And when i say unbalance in MM im not talking about "WG targeting you" but the strange function MM have gotten after the last micropatch where it will group the same tanks on one team. So situation like 6 Maus's on one team in Paris vs 4 50bs+2 113s are not that uncommon.

 

All in all - in the long run should remain the same.



Element6 #18 Posted 31 July 2017 - 03:35 PM

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View PostKozzy, on 31 July 2017 - 03:27 PM, said:

I don't get your point.  Are you trying to say that YOU are less likely to get the teams comprised of the better players?  Also, what has this got to do with the core point of "overall player quality is going down and so are my chances to win" which is the nonsense I was trying to address.

Sigh....

 

Let's make it even simpler....

 

We take one 6 side die each and roll 10 times, you get 4 6's, I get 1. That is a deviation, and we do not get the same results. Think of 6's as unicums. If we roll 1000 times, it is unlikely that you will get 4 times as many 6's as me, but you can perfectly well get 4 times as many 6's in a low samplesize of 10 rolls. The higher samplesize (rolls) the more likely we are to get similar results.

 

OP is talking about a streak, not all of his battles. His WR for the last 388 battles is above his average, but he's had a streak of 207 battles that have a WR that is more than 3% lower than his overall. He's in a streak, a small samplesize, so yes it is possible that in that streak of 207 battles he has been unlucky and had a disproportionate number of bad players in his teams. 

 



Kozzy #19 Posted 31 July 2017 - 05:21 PM

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View PostElement6_TheSprout, on 31 July 2017 - 02:35 PM, said:

Sigh....

 

Let's make it even simpler....

 

We take one 6 side die each and roll 10 times, you get 4 6's, I get 1. That is a deviation, and we do not get the same results. Think of 6's as unicums. If we roll 1000 times, it is unlikely that you will get 4 times as many 6's as me, but you can perfectly well get 4 times as many 6's in a low samplesize of 10 rolls. The higher samplesize (rolls) the more likely we are to get similar results.

 

OP is talking about a streak, not all of his battles. His WR for the last 388 battles is above his average, but he's had a streak of 207 battles that have a WR that is more than 3% lower than his overall. He's in a streak, a small samplesize, so yes it is possible that in that streak of 207 battles he has been unlucky and had a disproportionate number of bad players in his teams. 

 

 

 

Let's make it EVEN simpler for you by quoting the OP:

 

View PostDamage_inc, on 31 July 2017 - 01:28 PM, said:

Am I the only one who thinks the standard of teams has gone down the drain? Attempting to even play is too difficult anyone else on this losing streak or is it just me? 

 

 

This is what he said.

 

Here, the OP appears to be stating that the 'standard of teams has gone down the drain' he then goes onto intimate that BECAUSE OF THIS that HE is on a losing streak,

 

I was pointing out that this, logically, doesn't make sense.  As, if the quality of the players goes down then the difference in the OP's ability (his advantage over his opposition) improves to HIS advantage.  Not sure WTF your point (was there even one?) has to do with this totally basic concept as a response to the OP's point.



Element6 #20 Posted 31 July 2017 - 05:58 PM

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View PostKozzy, on 31 July 2017 - 05:21 PM, said:

 

 

Let's make it EVEN simpler for you by quoting the OP:

 

 

This is what he said.

 

Here, the OP appears to be stating that the 'standard of teams has gone down the drain' he then goes onto intimate that BECAUSE OF THIS that HE is on a losing streak,

 

I was pointing out that this, logically, doesn't make sense.  As, if the quality of the players goes down then the difference in the OP's ability (his advantage over his opposition) improves to HIS advantage.  Not sure WTF your point (was there even one?) has to do with this totally basic concept as a response to the OP's point.

He is more asking a question than make any sort of statement, as people do not normally make a statement with a questionmark. He even finishes with "or is it just me?".

At what point is what I have said in conflic with this? Even if there is no change at all in the playerbase, the streak can have multiple explanations, of which I have listed one that is plausible. But if the quality of players had gone down, the better players would be even more far between, making a skewed distribution of them more likely. 






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