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Stop crying about 3/5/7 match making - a mathematical examination


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Wacken0r #1 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:28 PM

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It seems to be in fashion to bash WG for their current match maker recently. There are a lot of empty phrases from even emptier heads around these days. This includes normal players as well as community contributers or 'influencers' as they call themselves.  

So what is the core of problem? It seems that certain tiers have a significantly worse match making compared to other tiers. This is true. But this is not a fault of the current match making rules but of the server population. Lets make a few assumptions first.  

  

1. The match maker prefers 3/5/7 over 5/10 over single tier battles. They are distributed 6:3:1

2. The players expect to be equally frequently high, middle and low tear

3. All tanks and all tiers have +2 match making  

  

So let us see which tanks or more precisely tiers the matchmaker to make this happen.  

 

Tier 10:   

To fulfill the 6:3:1 criteria there are (6*3+3*5+15)*2 tier 10 tanks needed. These are 96 tanks.

 

On top of that there are tier 9s and 8s needed to fill most of the matches. We will look into the 3/5/7 and 5/10 cases separately.

 

The 5/10 matchmaking requires 2 tier 9 tanks for every tier 10 tank in them. In this example there are 3 matches with 10 tier 10s each => 60 tier 9s needed

The 3/5/7 mm required 5/3 tier 9s and 2 1/3 tier 8s for every tier 10; with 36 tier 10s that means 60 tier 9s 84 tier 8s  

  

So to create matches for 96 tier 10 tanks there are 120 tier 9s and 84 tier 8s needed.  

  

Tier 9:

Now it is time to fulfill rule 2 for the tier 9s aka being top middle and low tier at the same rate. While keeping 6:3:1 going. See how many low tiers we will need.

 

Lets start with 5/10 as it is easy. For every battle you end up being low tier in 5/10 you want to end up top tier in a 5/10 as well. That means something simple. The number of tier 9s  being low tier must be equal to the number of tier 9s being top tier. So we have to find tier 8 tanks for 60 tier 9 tanks to fight. So we need 120 tier 8 tanks to fill 6 matches.  

 

3/5/7 has 60 tier 9s to be top tier. This requires: 100 tier 8 tanks and 140 tier 7 tanks  

  

So to give the tier 9s a good and fair experience there need to be 120 in the top position; the same number we had in tier 10s. This requires a total of 220 tier 8s and 140 tier 7s.  

  

To make it clear we burned through 240 tier 9s and 304 tier 8 tanks as well as 140 tier 7 tanks at this stage to ensure that only 96 tier 10s and 240 tier 9s have a good experience. If you like you can continue that down to tier 6 to see how many middle tier tanks you need. The result is basically that there are too few low tier tanks to ensure a fair 3/5/7 tank distribution. This will hurt the most bloated tier the most as they simply can not be top tier very often as there are no low(er) tier tanks in the queue to fill these kinds of battles. 

So what you want is a change of the priority of battle types so that single tier battles are preferred over two tier battles over three tier battles OR create incentives to play lower tiers OR fill battles with bots. 

 


Edited by Wacken0r, 21 September 2017 - 12:30 PM.


Rati_Festa #2 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:34 PM

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View PostWacken0r, on 21 September 2017 - 12:28 PM, said:

 

So what is the core of problem? It seems that certain tiers have a significantly worse match making compared to other tiers. This is true. But this is not a fault of the current match making rules but of the server population. 

  

 

 

Surely the matching making has to take into account the server population???? It's inherently broken because of that very issue..... 

 

The complaints are because WG didn't take this into account and we now have basically no go zones in t8 and t6 due to the overload at the +2 tiers. Its not fit for purpose.



Zoltan1251 #3 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:35 PM

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well, you overcomplicated this.... everybody knows that there are too few tier 6 and 7s and too many tier 8s 9s and 10s....

its normal really, as everybody just play low tiers to get to top tiers.... and nobody can repair it unless there is some kind of reward playing lower tiers... i dont mind this, i can do good when only 3 tier X are in the match, but many players just see tier Xs and go yolo and cry.... nothing to do about that

Gkirmathal #4 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:42 PM

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OP indeed it's not an issue with the 3-5-7 template but it's distribution, your 6:3:1.

Or how I see it: how much weight the 3-5-7 template has been given per tier (a weighted random distribution system).

 

Lower how it is distributed (a.k. it's weight) per tier and I think a lot of issue will lessen quite a bit.



Homer_J #5 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:43 PM

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So what you are trying to say is it's not the 3-5-7's fault that 3-5-7 is rubbish, it's because it was a rubbish idea to start with.

 

Some of us knew that before it was implemented.

 

Quote

So what you want is a change of the priority of battle types so that single tier battles are preferred over two tier battles over three tier battles

 

That's not going to happen.  And the unintended consequences if it did would be bad for the game (making slightly OP tanks more OP).

 

What's needed is a return to the old system where sometimes you were the only bottom tier.


Edited by Homer_J, 21 September 2017 - 12:47 PM.


CmdRatScabies #6 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:46 PM

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To know how many times you'll be shat on by the matchmaker you'd need to know the tank population at each tier, or just play tier 8 and know that your shat on all the time.

Wacken0r #7 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:47 PM

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View PostHomer_J, on 21 September 2017 - 12:43 PM, said:

So what you are trying to say is it's not the 3-5-7's fault that 3-5-7 is rubbish, it's because it was a rubbish idea to start with.

 

Some of us knew that before it was implemented.

 

No, 

 

what I am saying is that 3/5/7 is a great idea as it allows you to be effective in all battles but it simply cannot be applied in it's current form. The focus on this type of match making consumes too many of the scarce low tier tanks. It should be use in tiers with a balanced population. Tiers 10 and 8 should get pure matches to get some of these tanks out of the queue.



Zoltan1251 #8 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:48 PM

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View PostHomer_J, on 21 September 2017 - 12:43 PM, said:

So what you are trying to say is it's not the 3-5-7's fault that 3-5-7 is rubbish, it's because it was a rubbish idea to start with.

 

Some of us knew that before it was implemented.

 

Quote

So what you want is a change of the priority of battle types so that single tier battles are preferred over two tier battles over three tier battles

 

That's not going to happen.  And the unintended consequences if it did would be bad for the game (making slightly OP tanks more OP).

 

What's needed is a return to the old system where sometimes you were the only bottom tier.

 

why is it bad idea?... it was great idea... i was sick and tired of playing in tier 8 against 9 tier Xs.... 

Bora_BOOM #9 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:54 PM

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View PostWacken0r, on 21 September 2017 - 11:28 AM, said:

...... The result is basically that there are too few low tier tanks to ensure a fair 3/5/7 tank distribution. This will hurt the most bloated tier the most as they simply can not be top tier very often as there are no low(er) tier tanks in the queue to fill these kinds of battles. 

.....

 

After all the "number noise" above this is conclusion - 3/5/7 is not fairly distributed.

Duh....

 

That is why players are right and have a reason to complain. Or naturally solve the problem by skipping t8 a play t9 and t10 making the gap even bigger.

 

WG should ensure the distribution is better. Solving the problem by expecting players to fix that by telling them play more low tiers is impossible.



tajj7 #10 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:54 PM

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The priority of the templates need fixing so it looks for all tiers and 5-10s at a higher priority than 3-5-7.  Prioritising 3-5-7 above the other templates so the MM looks for these games first is the problem. 

 

What we need getting back to is game where you are bottom tier like 20-25% of the time max AND those games are 3-5-7, and then you have to tier 40-50% of the time but those will be one tier or two tier battles, and then rarely 3-5-7s. 

 

Should be something like -

 

10% Top tier in 3-5-7

20% top tier in 5-10

20% all tier

30% bottom in a 5-10

20% bottom in a 3-5-7. 


Edited by tajj7, 21 September 2017 - 12:58 PM.


CmdRatScabies #11 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:55 PM

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View PostHomer_J, on 21 September 2017 - 12:43 PM, said:

What's needed is a return to the old system where sometimes you were the only bottom tier.

 

Pain was brutal but over quickly instead of the lingering ache that is 9.18 match maker.  WG would lose too much face if it reverted though so I don't expect it.

Bora_BOOM #12 Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:57 PM

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View Posttajj7, on 21 September 2017 - 11:54 AM, said:

The priority of the templates need fixing so it looks for all tiers and 5-10s at high priority than 3-5-7. 

 

Ninja’d.

Homer_J #13 Posted 21 September 2017 - 01:07 PM

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View PostZoltan1251, on 21 September 2017 - 12:48 PM, said:

 

why is it bad idea?... it was great idea... i was sick and tired of playing in tier 8 against 9 tier Xs.... 

 

You will be more sick and tired of there always being five Defenders in every tier 8 battle.  Always on the other team of course. 

NervosCuNervii #14 Posted 21 September 2017 - 01:15 PM

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You showed why 3/5/7 doesn't work well. Now why in the world are you telling me that I should "stop crying" about it ? You just showed what we say: the current matchmaking sucks so you can come along and cry with us.

Gkirmathal #15 Posted 21 September 2017 - 01:16 PM

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View PostHomer_J, on 21 September 2017 - 12:07 PM, said:

 

You will be more sick and tired of there always being five Defenders in every tier 8 battle.  Always on the other team of course. 

 

And that is a problem of the template system it self? Or a side effect of WG decision making in releasing such premium content?

 

IMO it's the latter and the template system in itself is not a bad thing at all. It is just very mis configured at the moment.


Edited by Gkirmathal, 21 September 2017 - 01:17 PM.


Junglist_ #16 Posted 21 September 2017 - 01:18 PM

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Might be just a tinfoil conspiracy but to me it seems like WG has set up the MM to prefer 3-5-7 in order to lower the earnings of the tanks / force people to shoot more prem ammo and generally spend more on the game. 

Also in before the lock because how dare you speak about MM outside of the containment thread!!



Link_to_Insanity #17 Posted 21 September 2017 - 01:30 PM

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I loved the new MM when it was first introduced. It was when they decided to tweak the 3/5/7 so those matches got more preference they ruined it. If WG were to change it back they'd probably fix the issues again, but that would be admitting a mistake. :child:

DangerMouse #18 Posted 21 September 2017 - 01:36 PM

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There is a relatively simple solution to this issue but WG won't do it because it would harm their Tier 8 prem sales.

 

Increase the earning co-efficient for Tier 5,6 and 7 premiums.

 

DM



Homer_J #19 Posted 21 September 2017 - 01:53 PM

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View PostGkirmathal, on 21 September 2017 - 01:16 PM, said:

 

And that is a problem of the template system it self? Or a side effect of WG decision making in releasing such premium content?

 

 

It doesn't matter.  Get rid of the Defender and you make the next oh so slightly OP tank flavour of the month.

 

Just as happened when they moved the KV-3 to tier 7.  Before that nobody gave the KV-1S a second look.  After that half the tier 6 tanks were KV-1S.  After the KV-1S was fixed it was the Hellcat and on it goes.



SirTogII #20 Posted 21 September 2017 - 02:10 PM

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Agree with others that the subject title is stupid. You've explained for people who had problems understanding the root cause why this thing is happening. The 3/5/7 isn't to blame but the way it was implemented and the weighting contra number of tanks in specific tiers is.

Something will be done since tier 8 is the bread and butter. Sales of premiums will drop substantially if the tier is broken and majority of games is tier 10. Start by only letting tier 10s get 1/10 rofl stomp chances as top tier in 3/5/7. That combined with the ranked and grand will remove a lot of pain.




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