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Baldrickk #1 Posted 21 September 2017 - 11:53 PM

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After some cursory checking of wotlabs after the new MM in 0.9.18, I noticed that active player winrates were lower than they used to be.

So I thought I would check what is actually going on.

 

I was expecting the a drop to begin with 0.9.18, instead, I found this:

What are your theories?

 



Wintermute_1 #2 Posted 22 September 2017 - 12:11 AM

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Updates 9.15.1 & 9.15.2 were pretty innocuous for average winrates to dive off a cliff. How confident are you in these numbers?

Baldrickk #3 Posted 22 September 2017 - 01:35 AM

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View PostWintermute_1, on 22 September 2017 - 12:11 AM, said:

Updates 9.15.1 & 9.15.2 were pretty innocuous for average winrates to dive off a cliff. How confident are you in these numbers?

The numbers are from wotlabs.  

The historic numbers were gathered using the wayback machine



SuedKAT #4 Posted 22 September 2017 - 01:38 AM

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Read trough the patch notes of the patches around the dip but nothing obvious, however the dip takes place around the same time as the Fair Play Policy was introduced, so it seems that it had the wanted effect.



xx984 #5 Posted 22 September 2017 - 02:04 AM

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These numbers are obviously false. They should be higher than ever, with the Defender now and all :hiding:

Shaade_Silentpaw #6 Posted 22 September 2017 - 02:34 AM

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View Postxx984, on 22 September 2017 - 01:04 AM, said:

These numbers are obviously false. They should be higher than ever, with the Defender now and all :hiding:

 

More people play against Defenders than play Defenders themselves, so the the opposite is true.

Baldrickk #7 Posted 22 September 2017 - 06:07 AM

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View PostSuedKAT, on 22 September 2017 - 01:38 AM, said:

Read trough the patch notes of the patches around the dip but nothing obvious, however the dip takes place around the same time as the Fair Play Policy was introduced, so it seems that it had the wanted effect.

Oh really? Now THAT is interesting. and deserves further checking. 

 

Really annoyingly, the way back machine only has the one snapshot this year, so it's hard to actually tell what is going on recently. 



ZlatanArKung #8 Posted 22 September 2017 - 06:52 AM

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They are still going down.

Recent WR drop might be because of bans or people removing certain mods.

But the effect is much larger then what should be expected from ~2000 banned accounts (since most of those banned was in the 48-53% WR group).

Baldrickk #9 Posted 22 September 2017 - 07:03 AM

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View PostZlatanArKung, on 22 September 2017 - 06:52 AM, said:

They are still going down.

Recent WR drop might be because of bans or people removing certain mods.

But the effect is much larger then what should be expected from ~2000 banned accounts (since most of those banned was in the 48-53% WR group).

It could still be the fair play policy - if people stopped using cheat mods because of it, whether they were banned or not. 

 

I don't want to draw any conclusions at the moment though, but it would be interesting to see if there is a correlation.

 

I just wish that the regular snapshots hadn't stopped on the wayback machine.

 

If anyone can provide  the missing data, or a similar but complete dataset, that would be great. 

 

Edit: actually, seeing that the fair play policy was introduced on the 8th November 2016, and that big drop happened in September/October, I would suggest that something else is the cause. 

 

End of the summer holidays? Probably not. I'll have to go back further to confirm, but with the data I have already, it doesn't seem to be a seasonal thing. 

 

Thinking that there is about 1-month lag on these numbers (refer to active players which is captured over a month I believe)  I thought it could be 9.15 or 9.15.1

Spoiler

Not much there to warrant it though. 


Edited by Baldrickk, 22 September 2017 - 07:20 AM.


Baldrickk #10 Posted 22 September 2017 - 07:15 AM

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What do you guys think has caused this?

Massive influx of new players, e.g. new ad campaign etc

Good players leaving the game

Combination or something else?

jabster #11 Posted 22 September 2017 - 07:41 AM

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View PostBaldrickk, on 22 September 2017 - 06:15 AM, said:

What do you guys think has caused this?

Massive influx of new players, e.g. new ad campaign etc

Good players leaving the game

Combination or something else?

 

It's sorta interesting but unfortunately I've always taken those values with a pinch of salt.



iztok #12 Posted 22 September 2017 - 09:46 AM

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> What are your theories?

At about that time I started playing my gifted ScorpG. (6% lower WR than my average).

;)


Edited by iztok, 22 September 2017 - 09:48 AM.


TungstenHitman #13 Posted 22 September 2017 - 09:52 AM

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Probably that Ranked Battles mode no? Doesn't only a tiny minority of participants actually win? That would drag down win rates since the majority of participants lose but I don't know much about it.. it must be over some new game mode which allows for an uneven distribution of losses unlike random where and equal 15 win and 15 lose 


Edited by TungstenHitman, 22 September 2017 - 09:56 AM.


SlyMeerkat #14 Posted 22 September 2017 - 10:00 AM

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I just play to do my best, not bothered about the rest

Infektid #15 Posted 22 September 2017 - 10:02 AM

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I don't understand this graphic. Shouldnt the average wr of active players be 49.5% - because of draws ?

Baldrickk #16 Posted 22 September 2017 - 10:04 AM

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View PostTungstenHitman, on 22 September 2017 - 09:52 AM, said:

Probably that Ranked Battles mode no? Doesn't only a tiny minority of participants actually win? That would drag down win rates since the majority of participants lose but I don't know much about it.. it must be over some new game mode which allows for an uneven distribution of losses unlike random where and equal 15 win and 15 lose 

Ranked battles came with 9.19.  So after the drop. 

And in ranked it's 50% less draws like randoms.

 

My thoughts were that it is because of

View PostBaldrickk, on 22 September 2017 - 06:15 AM, said:

Massive influx of new players, 
Good players leaving the game

But not sure which or why


Edited by Baldrickk, 22 September 2017 - 10:11 AM.


Baldrickk #17 Posted 22 September 2017 - 10:10 AM

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View PostInfektid, on 22 September 2017 - 10:02 AM, said:

I don't understand this graphic. Shouldnt the average wr of active players be 49.5% - because of draws ?

Nope.

 

Because they have played against players that are no longer playing the game. 

 

Being good at something tends to make you do it more, and being bad tends to make you not want to, also if you start and don't continue with something, you dont get the experience to learn to do it well. 

 

These factors mean that thise defined as active players tend to be better than the inactive ones, as a general rule (though there is nothing stopping unicums from leaving the game and going inactive, they are pretty heavily outnumbered)



wsatnutter #18 Posted 22 September 2017 - 10:11 AM

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View PostSlyMeerkat, on 22 September 2017 - 09:00 AM, said:

I just play to do my best, not bothered about the rest

 

this

Gkirmathal #19 Posted 22 September 2017 - 10:13 AM

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@Baldrick, do things like average experience, credit, etc gained, also show the same drop? Or is it only wr?

Baldrickk #20 Posted 22 September 2017 - 10:15 AM

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View Postwsatnutter, on 22 September 2017 - 10:11 AM, said:

View PostSlyMeerkat, on 22 September 2017 - 09:00 AM, said:

I just play to do my best, not bothered about the rest
this

Less worried about other players, more what it means for the game. 

 

I started collating the data last night, because I thought that the new MM might be turning players away, and this would be reflected in the active winrate falling since 9.18.

 

Looking back further, it seems to have been falling since the end of August instead, which surprised me, and doesn't support my hypothesis - at least not directly.






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