Hi guys, something about matchmaker. The random battles, though being declared and named as "random", are not really random and I can prove that.

Today (12.10.2017) I played 17 random battles in a row with two vehicles (Emil II and Strv 103-0) trying to get daily double experience. I was not able to achieve one single win. I was not the cause of the losses (no team damage etc., about 1500 average damage to enemy tanks, which is not super-amazing, but still fair enough to show that my influence on the battles was positive for my team, not negative).

If random battles were really random, an average player’s chance to win has to be about 50% each battle. My long-term stats and result show that I am at least average (actually somewhat better than average player, my long term win rate is about 54%), but OK, let’s not complicate it and say that I have basically only 50% chance.

What is the probability of 17 losses in a row, where chance in each battle is statistically 50%? Easy to calculate, it’s a binomical distribution of n independent experiments, each asking a yes–no question, and each with its own boolean-valued outcome. The result for 17 experiments (battles) is:

= 0,0007629% chance that 17 battles will all result as loss with 50% chance in each single battle.

That calculated to human perspective means that if I play 17 battles every day, I need statistically 131072 days to get one result like this (= 17 losses in a row). That is 359 years of playing WOT every day!

For the details of the calculation please refer to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution.

Yes, you may say it’s VERY IMPROBABLE, but still possible, it’s just a coincidence and I have solid chance that it does not happen again (or at least probably not in the nearest 300 years), but I do not accept this explanation, because I had several similar improbable loosing streaks in the recent months. If we all admit that mathematics as we know it, is generally valid in our universe, we must see that something strange happens here – is it our universe changing and our mathematic rules are to be not valid any longer?

Let’s forget about theories of changing universe. I consider proven that the explanation lies in the Wargaming’s servers. What happens is that mm logic secretly balances the two teams and takes one of the better players from random created teams and puts him to the worst to equalize chances of both teams. Of course this “feature” may be nice for the beginners to help them get wins easier, but guess how frustrating it is for the “balancing” player to be constantly in defeating teams. The most important outcome is that WOT’s main game mode, RANDOM BATTLES, ARE NOT REALY RANDOM (!) and WARGAMING IS HIDING THIS INFORMATION FROM PUBLIC (!).