K_A, on 13 October 2017 - 07:17 AM, said:

The chance of first flip being heads is 50%. The chance of second flip being heads is 50%. The chance of third flip being heads is 50%. The chance of fourth flip being heads is 50%. The chance of fifth flip being heads is 50%. I can go on.

The chance of getting HHHHHHHHHH is the same as the chance of getting HHTTHTHHHT, and also the same as getting HTHTHTHTHT, and also the same as getting TTTTTHTTTT. Every single combination has the same percentage chance of happening, and it is down to pure random chance which combination you will end up with for any given number of battles over any given time period.

Now, in WoT that chance is influenced slightly either to the positive or negative by your own actions, which alone makes your calculations of chance obsolete, and also makes any attempt of "rigging" highly impractical and useless.

Excactly, the probability of each single try is always 50%. But I am not talking about this. I talk about probability of getting the same (or whatever but predicted) results in all tries! That is getting lower with increasing number of tries.

The probability of HHTTHTHHHT is exactly the same as HHHHHHHHHH, but its significantly lower then probability of HHT or HHH.

Common, this is elementary statistics of first semester at bachelor studies..

Merton15, on 13 October 2017 - 07:18 AM, said:

No that does not proove it. But I admit that my conclusion can not be proven as well. It happens statisticaly exactly one times of 130000 series of 17 rolls (= means you need to play 2 210 000 battles to meet STATISTICALY once such result (that all 17 tries are loss), but okay, whatever it is unprobable, it does not definitely proove my therory, I may be just the unlucky winner... :-)

**Edited by VMX, 17 October 2017 - 04:10 PM.**