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How Player Stats Can Mislead

XVM Tomato Other Fruit

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Tramp_In_Armour #1 Posted 15 November 2017 - 12:38 AM

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After lingering a while in the Below Average zone, I finally made it up to Average! On someone's XVM, I will now show up as yellow!

 

But that colour's a lie.

 

On tier 3, which is where I play most of my games at the moment (grinding new tanks) I feel I am, indeed, average. But on tier 4, I'm actually still below average. And when I play my Cromwell B at tier 6, I am really a tomato. Because I still struggle mightily at that level.

 

So on a tier 6 game, when some player with XVM peruses his team, I will be hidden among the yellows, and he'll curse the reds, not realising that I am one too. And I won't play to expectations because my WN8 was earned lower down, and at tier 6, I'm still a noob.

 

Yet that same player may see another tomato on his team and start giving him grief, in spite of the fact that the tomato player may indeed be a tomato at, say, tiers 8-10 (because he's still getting to grips with those levels), but when he drops down to tier 6, he could well be a better and more skilled player than I am.

 

Life is never fair, but it's worth a thought that the tomato you see may not be a tomato in the current game at all. And the apparently better coloured players may actually be worse.

 

Stats can lie.



ralesm1989 #2 Posted 15 November 2017 - 12:49 AM

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Congrats on you becoming a 

qqq10 #3 Posted 15 November 2017 - 01:23 AM

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I don't know what scale you're looking at, but the default xvm configs say that you need 915 WN8 for a yellow color. Sure, stats can lie. That's why you also check how the player behaves (where he goes, how long it takes him to respond to spotted tanks and changes on the map, etc.), WR and number of battles. Even If you had that 900WN, with only 1,6k battles you're a newbie that has some skill, but still lacks the experience (game mechanics, maps, tanks) or a failed reroll - meaning you probably play a lot more on lower tiers and you don't really have a clue how to play tier 6 - either way, I'd still consider you just as useless to me as 300WN tomato is. The only difference is that I'd be a lot more careful around tomatoes than you.

Aikl #4 Posted 15 November 2017 - 01:56 AM

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Even if WN8 could indicate actual overall skill, it's still not a valid way to measure performance in a single battle. Most players are far from consistent in their performance, for multiple reasons. 

Very few are equally good at every tank or class. On a related note that's why skill-based matchmaking is pointless.

 

In-game statistics are a distraction for many players - who would be far better off minding their own damn business than blaming the team for not winning for him. 



Wargene #5 Posted 15 November 2017 - 06:36 AM

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Stats dont lie

Tramp_In_Armour #6 Posted 15 November 2017 - 09:46 AM

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View Postqqq10, on 15 November 2017 - 01:23 AM, said:

I don't know what scale you're looking at, but the default xvm configs say that you need 915 WN8 for a yellow color. Sure, stats can lie. That's why you also check how the player behaves (where he goes, how long it takes him to respond to spotted tanks and changes on the map, etc.), WR and number of battles. Even If you had that 900WN, with only 1,6k battles you're a newbie that has some skill, but still lacks the experience (game mechanics, maps, tanks) or a failed reroll - meaning you probably play a lot more on lower tiers and you don't really have a clue how to play tier 6 - either way, I'd still consider you just as useless to me as 300WN tomato is. The only difference is that I'd be a lot more careful around tomatoes than you.

 

I looked up my stats on some website. I don't really know whether it corresponds to XVM, but I use it merely as an example to show how relative stats are. I was thinking about recent posts where players report getting grief at the countdown stage of a game, before they've even shown what kind of player they are. I don't think XVM shows other players how many games someone has played, or whether they're a reroll, does it?

 

EDIT: It seems I'm orange on XVM, not yellow. But my point remains.


Edited by Tramp_In_Armour, 15 November 2017 - 10:07 AM.


qqq10 #7 Posted 15 November 2017 - 01:30 PM

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View PostTramp_In_Armour, on 15 November 2017 - 08:46 AM, said:

I was thinking about recent posts where players report getting grief at the countdown stage of a game, before they've even shown what kind of player they are.

 

I almost never do this, but I can understand why someone might. It's hard to not get angry when you get yet another battle where you're at the bottom of the table and your top tiers are bots (I'm talking about those 200WN/20k battles 'players' ). It's not exactly fun when your only top heavy decided he's a light tank and died in the first 2 minutes.

 

As for the rest...
XVM does show you the number of battles. I'm pretty sure you can change it so it displays stats on the tank someone is currently playing. And yeah, It doesn't show you directly that someone is a reroll - you have to deduce that yourself - 3kWN/1k battles is a reroll. 2kWN/1k battles is a failed reroll. 1kWN/1k battles could either be a really bad reroll or a good newbie - in both cases, the only expectation I have from him is that he won't shoot me in the as$ for no reason.

 

 


Edited by qqq10, 15 November 2017 - 01:32 PM.


Tramp_In_Armour #8 Posted 15 November 2017 - 01:53 PM

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View Postqqq10, on 15 November 2017 - 01:30 PM, said:

 

I almost never do this, but I can understand why someone might. It's hard to not get angry when you get yet another battle where you're at the bottom of the table and your top tiers are bots (I'm talking about those 200WN/20k battles 'players' ). It's not exactly fun when your only top heavy decided he's a light tank and died in the first 2 minutes.

 

 

I don't understand the getting angry part, unless it's just the adrenaline - but I assumed this would come later in the game, not at the countdown stage. I'm nowhere near the stage of MOEing a tank, so maybe players get miffed when they see themselves in a game that promises to break their run of achievements (does it take a number of continuous good games to get MOE? I don't know). But otherwise, a game only lasts a few minutes. If you have a bad one, you move onto the next. And even if your team loses, you can still play well enough to do damage and earn credits and XP in a way that lessens the effect on your W8, if that's what's important to a player.

 

I don't get the rage. Maybe it's because I haven't been playing long enough. I know the game's immersive (one of the things I love about it), and even addictive, but again, a match only lasts a few minutes. If I was a player who was desperate to win (and yeah, we all want to win), and I found myself in a one-sided match that was going to last half an hour or more, then I'd get despondent and maybe rage a bit. Especially if the previous game had been the same. But when it's only going to be an average of eight minutes before I'm in the garage again, I'd think that raging would be excessive. I worry sometimes about the blood pressure of some players. It's like a self-inflicted wound.



TinmanSAC #9 Posted 15 November 2017 - 02:21 PM

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For the few that get angry, there are far more that are frustrated.

 

We all need to learn. But when you see new players constantly do the wrong thing. Even when you say in chat. I use XVM and look at the top tier tanks. if they are red I know I need to try to influence them if possible i.e. Heavies go this way. It rarely works and they do the opposite or drive straight into the middle of the map and get deleted in 1 min. In XVM you can see the overal wn8, but also the rating for the tank. So you can see improving players. i.e. red overall but yellow or green in that tank. You can have a more confidence in that player.

 

As you have found moving from the lower tiers to the higher tiers is alot harder and too many move up the tiers too quickly. Even at 17k+ games I am only now starting to play T10 more often. When you see a player with 2k games in a tier 8 - you know that is negative help to the team.



TinmanSAC #10 Posted 15 November 2017 - 02:30 PM

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On your other point about it is only one game. It matters because alot of players play badly for their 1st 5-10k games (can be even more). Once you have a win rate sub-47% after that many games. It is a massive effort to move that win % to over 50% and above. 

 

So for example : I have played 17697 games overall win % - 50.78% to get to 51% (a 0.22% increase) - Wotlabs says I need to win 81 consecutive games (not going to happen), So at at my recent performance I will need to play 1,462 games to achieve 51%. Every loss increases the number of game I need to play.

 

So frustration or for others anger.



Tramp_In_Armour #11 Posted 15 November 2017 - 02:32 PM

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View PostTinmanSAC, on 15 November 2017 - 02:21 PM, said:

In XVM you can see the overal wn8, but also the rating for the tank. So you can see improving players. i.e. red overall but yellow or green in that tank. 

 

I didn't know that. You sure get a lot of info from XVM on the screen.

 

I do think a lot of players move up the tiers too fast. After dying in a tier 3 game last night, I watched another player who had a good chance of stemming the tide in our corner, but saw him behaving cluelessly and even failing to fire his gun at an open target. Checked his stats on the endscreen and saw he'd only played twenty games. Didn't bother me much, though. I just found it amusing.



Tramp_In_Armour #12 Posted 15 November 2017 - 02:38 PM

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View PostTinmanSAC, on 15 November 2017 - 02:30 PM, said:

On your other point about it is only one game. It matters because alot of players play badly for their 1st 5-10k games (can be even more). Once you have a win rate sub-47% after that many games. It is a massive effort to move that win % to over 50% and above. 

 

So for example : I have played 17697 games overall win % - 50.78% to get to 51% (a 0.22% increase) - Wotlabs says I need to win 81 consecutive games (not going to happen), So at at my recent performance I will need to play 1,462 games to achieve 51%. Every loss increases the number of game I need to play.

 

So frustration or for others anger.

 

I do watch my win rate, and get disappointed when it drops by a percentage point, but I blame it on myself. I do get frustrated, however, by how many games I have to play to increase my crew skill stats. Seems to take forever before I can get 100% skill and change the commander to sixth sense, but I guess these are newbie woes.

qqq10 #13 Posted 15 November 2017 - 02:50 PM

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Maybe not angry, but definitely frustrated, like Tinman said. When I'm just playing the game I don't really care that much - I did my part, not my fault the rest of the team didn't. But it's another thing when I'm trying to get a MoE (every bad game sets you back a lot) or when I'm trying to grind through something. I just got the Godzilla - If you don't know, that line consists pretty much only of tanks that 90% of the time have no real impact on the outcome of the battle. And because those tanks are so bad I wanted to go through them as fast as I possibly could - meaning premium account and reserves (so you have to play pretty much non stop for a few hours). So I'm really going to get pissed when I'm losing more than half of my battles because the top tiers were useless (thanks to the new MM you almost never are on top at tiers >7) - just because it means I have to spend more time playing that shitty tank.

Edited by qqq10, 15 November 2017 - 02:52 PM.


magkiln #14 Posted 15 November 2017 - 02:52 PM

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View PostTramp_In_Armour, on 15 November 2017 - 01:53 PM, said:

 

I don't understand the getting angry part, unless it's just the adrenaline - but I assumed this would come later in the game, not at the countdown stage. I'm nowhere near the stage of MOEing a tank, so maybe players get miffed when they see themselves in a game that promises to break their run of achievements (does it take a number of continuous good games to get MOE? I don't know). But otherwise, a game only lasts a few minutes. If you have a bad one, you move onto the next. And even if your team loses, you can still play well enough to do damage and earn credits and XP in a way that lessens the effect on your W8, if that's what's important to a player.

 

I don't get the rage. Maybe it's because I haven't been playing long enough. I know the game's immersive (one of the things I love about it), and even addictive, but again, a match only lasts a few minutes. If I was a player who was desperate to win (and yeah, we all want to win), and I found myself in a one-sided match that was going to last half an hour or more, then I'd get despondent and maybe rage a bit. Especially if the previous game had been the same. But when it's only going to be an average of eight minutes before I'm in the garage again, I'd think that raging would be excessive. I worry sometimes about the blood pressure of some players. It's like a self-inflicted wound.

 

MoE is about average performance over time, so, yes, you need a series of good games, but it is only about damage (done + assist), so as long as you perform well personally, you can still get it even if the team dies around you. It also depends on what other sare doing. I got my MoE on the Jagdtiger 88 after a match in which I did zero damage :teethhappy:.I guess some people were doing really poorly that day, so the average dropped.

 

I think the rage is more something that builds up over multiple matches. It can be incredibly furstrating to lose game after game, no matter how hard you try. Then, when you enter the next game and one of your top tier heavies is afk in the spawn, or all three light tanks are hiding behind the artillery...



Dru_UK #15 Posted 15 November 2017 - 03:04 PM

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how can a colour tell you if that person, in that tank, with that crew will make a positive or negative impact upon the game?

 

 

Play vanilla mate and don't give a damn about XVM!



StinkyStonky #16 Posted 15 November 2017 - 03:16 PM

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View PostTramp_In_Armour, on 14 November 2017 - 11:38 PM, said:

On tier 3, ... I feel I am, indeed, average. But on tier 4, I'm actually still below average. And when I play my Cromwell B at tier 6, I am really a tomato.

 

I think you are over estimating the ability of the other yellow Cromwell drivers.  I'll let you into a secret.  They screw up just as often as you do.



ZlatanArKung #17 Posted 15 November 2017 - 03:34 PM

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It is really first when you see blue/purple players you can be pretty certain they won't heavily screw up and die early for no reason, but sometimes they do anyway.
Everyone below is way to inconsistent in their ability and performance to be reliable. They do succeed more often then read ones though.

Orkbert #18 Posted 15 November 2017 - 04:58 PM

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View PostTramp_In_Armour, on 15 November 2017 - 12:38 AM, said:

...

 

Forget WnWhatever, your win rate is already above 50%, that's good enough for a player with less than 2k battles.

 

Just play the tanks/tiers you like and don't cause too much team damage then you will do fine.



ogremage #19 Posted 16 November 2017 - 10:09 AM

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They can also mislead in the other direction - the yellow guy may have suddenly gotten a lot better and is now de-facto blue. Or the blue guy purple.


Or also the purple/blue may be an e-bay account and actually a tomato, or maybe coming back to the game after a multi-year break and actually he is green as he doesn't know maps / tanks.


Edited by ogremage, 16 November 2017 - 10:10 AM.


SpikeTank #20 Posted 16 November 2017 - 10:40 AM

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https://en.wot-life....amp_In_Armour /

Here is  your xvm with tanks listed it will give you a feel what tanks are you good in.

 

Edit: Also your win ratio is above the avrage so thats good, (most tomatos oscilate around 47-49%) meaning you tend to help your team win not hinder it.

 


Edited by SpikeTank, 16 November 2017 - 10:42 AM.





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