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The Unlucky Series, When It's Impossible To Win !

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DarkMau5 #1 Posted 06 December 2017 - 12:23 AM

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Hello Commanders !

 

 

I am wondering if you guys ever had an unlucky series, when you lost almost every single battle, and you get the most inexperienced players in World of Tanks. 

 

 

A couple of days ago I got some good battles and teams, it was a fun to play, and after a long time I felt that playing World of Tanks it's a relaxation for me.

However it was to good to be true, and of course everything has turned again into a black hole, what sucks the whole enjoyment from the game and leaves you only with frustration.
After those great battles, the game turned again against me, and I started to lose one by one the battles, and somehow I started to get the most "bot" players what was available.

The game officially has become again a frustration to play, doesn't matter what tier I played it was lost from the start, not only because we had a very weak team.
Somehow, the enemy team had 4 / 6 or even 8 very experienced player (super unicums), and for extra they had sometimes + 5.000 or 7.000 HP.
I've tried to play alone and in platoon, but always ended with lost battle, doesn't matter what we did, how much tried to help our team mates, we lost at the end.

 

I can understand if I lose some battles, because it's impossible to win every single battle, and that's is totally normal.
However, I don't think it's an unlucky series, when I lose more then twelve battles in a row, even if I do my best in the battle(s).

 

(The player(s) name remain hidden, for their identity protection)

 
It's interesting that on my second account I had no problem like this, I get a (relatively) balanced Matchmaking with fairly good team(s).
I don't understand what happened with my main (this) account, that I get such an unfair and lost battles almost every time. 
 
I've already tried to write about this to the WarGaming's Customer Support Team, but they sent me different links to Wikipedia and they wrote some random reply (not even connected to content).
I want to clarify, I don't want to remove the XVM, since it's a good to tool to check out what team(s) and player(s) you have in your team, so you know who is experienced and who is not !


Jigabachi #2 Posted 06 December 2017 - 12:30 AM

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Block Quote

 However, I don't think it's an unlucky series, when I lose more then twelve battles in a row, even if I do my best in the battle(s).

What does an unlucky series look like? If 12 is too much, what would be the limit of a natural and random series of losses and what do you base that on?

 

Also: Did you collect any data or is this about gut feelings alone? And what exactly did you ask the support about?


Edited by Jigabachi, 06 December 2017 - 12:32 AM.


DarkMau5 #3 Posted 06 December 2017 - 12:38 AM

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View PostJigabachi, on 05 December 2017 - 11:30 PM, said:

What does an unlucky series look like? If 12 is too much, what would be the limit of a natural and random series of losses and what do you base that on?

 

Also: Did you collect any data or is this about gut feelings alone? And what exactly did you ask the support about?

 

On my personal opinion, I'd say 6 or 8 lost battles can be "unlucky series", however even if you have an unlucky series after 6 or 8 battles you win at least 1, but when you lose more than 6 - 8 battles in a row without winning 1 battle, that more looks like a punishment.

 

PS: Yes, I did test with my second account (and later with my friend account), of course with the same tanks and same server, and I experienced that I get a way more balanced Matchmaking than with my (this) main account.

 

PS 2 : I asked them what happened with my account, two days ago I was able to play and win and today I can't win any single battle, and this is frustrating because I can't properly grind vehicles and make credits. They said that they can understand my frustration, then they sent to me Wikipedia links to read more about the Matchmaking, and If I have more question I can write to them ... 


Edited by DarkMau5, 06 December 2017 - 12:47 AM.


Pvt_Duffer #4 Posted 06 December 2017 - 12:44 AM

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If it  starts to get disturbing I just load the Pz 38H 735(f)

On a really bad night, I might even run the 13-57GF and yell "HAH!!" every time a shell penetrates

Fortunately whilst I am generally shyte, It's not usually that bad.



Jigabachi #5 Posted 06 December 2017 - 12:46 AM

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View PostDarkMau5, on 06 December 2017 - 12:38 AM, said:

PS: Yes, I did test with my second account (and later with my friend account), of course with the same tanks and same server, and I experienced that I get a way more balanced Matchmaking than with my (this) main account.

Can we see that data you collected?



DarkMau5 #6 Posted 06 December 2017 - 12:50 AM

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View PostJigabachi, on 05 December 2017 - 11:46 PM, said:

Can we see that data you collected?

 

I will try to collect properly tomorrow, and put here on the forum !

dimethylcadmium #7 Posted 06 December 2017 - 01:06 AM

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View PostDarkMau5, on 06 December 2017 - 12:23 AM, said:

It's interesting that on my second account I had no problem like this, I get a (relatively) balanced Matchmaking with fairly good team(s).
I don't understand what happened with my main (this) account, that I get such an unfair and lost battles almost every time. 

 

That's why it's called Random battles. It's a coincidence that you don't get the same mm on two of your accounts.



AngelofAwe #8 Posted 06 December 2017 - 01:24 AM

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View PostDarkMau5, on 06 December 2017 - 01:38 AM, said:

 

On my personal opinion, I'd say 6 or 8 lost battles can be "unlucky series", however even if you have an unlucky series after 6 or 8 battles you win at least 1, but when you lose more than 6 - 8 battles in a row without winning 1 battle, that more looks like a punishment.

 

PS: Yes, I did test with my second account (and later with my friend account), of course with the same tanks and same server, and I experienced that I get a way more balanced Matchmaking than with my (this) main account.

 

PS 2 : I asked them what happened with my account, two days ago I was able to play and win and today I can't win any single battle, and this is frustrating because I can't properly grind vehicles and make credits. They said that they can understand my frustration, then they sent to me Wikipedia links to read more about the Matchmaking, and If I have more question I can write to them ... 

 

Did you ever learn statistics in school darkmaus?
You're a 50% player so this is a very simple calculation to make as you're at the average.

Statistically you have a 50% chance of winning a match (due to teams averaging out and you not affecting the calculation in either direction).
The statistical chance of you losing (or winning) 3 battles in a row is for example 0,5*0,5*0,5 = 0,125. That is 12,5%.

Now let's take this to 10 losses in a row. 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 = 0,0009765... or 0,09765%. Let's round it to 0,01%.
0,01% is 1/10000th.
What that means is that if you play 10,000 battles you should statistically lose 10 battles in a row (as a 50% player) once in those 10k games.

You have 37k battles so statistically you SHOULD have lost 10 battles in a row at least 3 times, possibly 4 if you were slightly unlucky.
The only way to prevent such a thing from happening is to RIG the game to make you win. In a random matchmaking these things are natural.

Correct my math if I'm wrong, it's been a while. 


P.S. Your 6 losses in a row series should happen 1,5% of the time statistically. Or once per every 60 battles.
Or approximately 620 times over the course of your account so far.

Edited by AngelofAwe, 06 December 2017 - 01:30 AM.


TungstenHitman #9 Posted 06 December 2017 - 01:41 AM

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Looking at your signature it's clear you play TDs pretty much all the time. This is a class I used to play all the time too and can still be amazing on certain maps, tiers etc but the current offering of this gameplay right now is just a frustrating class to play along with LTs to a lesser extent and arty can go f*** I don't care. 

 

Try another class for a while, you may not win more and will not grant you knowledge average teammates instead of orangutans but with a turret comes a flexibility and ease of playstyle you will not find in some bush camping awkward turretless "assault gun" that bumbles awkwardly around city maps getting flanked, perma-tracked and shot up the rear by reasonably mobile tanks.



ExclamationMark #10 Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:21 AM

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Uninstall XVM.

Strappster #11 Posted 06 December 2017 - 09:11 AM

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I lost 7 battles in the AMX 13 F3 arty before I finally won a battle. All I thought about was the piles of credits I was earning - that arty is the second highest net credit earning vehicle in the game. :great:

Excavatus #12 Posted 06 December 2017 - 01:34 PM

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seing 8 "superunicums" in one match even in the same team?

which server you playing?

 

I am playing everynight (yes I am back again.. feck WG!)

and I can see a regular light purple unicum once in every 10 matches..

a dark purple? I see once in a day sometimes.. sometimes not even that..

 

seeing 8 dark of them, then they consist the %0.01 of the player base... is a little.. I dont know.. off?

If there is 100K people active on both EU servers..  stats shows that only 10 super/uber unicums will be online..



DarkMau5 #13 Posted 09 December 2017 - 01:24 PM

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View PostExcavatus, on 06 December 2017 - 12:34 PM, said:

seing 8 "superunicums" in one match even in the same team?

which server you playing?

 

I am playing everynight (yes I am back again.. feck WG!)

and I can see a regular light purple unicum once in every 10 matches..

a dark purple? I see once in a day sometimes.. sometimes not even that..

 

seeing 8 dark of them, then they consist the %0.01 of the player base... is a little.. I dont know.. off?

If there is 100K people active on both EU servers..  stats shows that only 10 super/uber unicums will be online..

 

First of all, I don't care that you come back or not, if you play World of Tanks or not, it's irrelevant for this topic. 
Secondly, I am not surprised if you don't met with unicum or with super unicum players, maybe you play in low tier (based on your stats ) , so you have a small chance to see "good" players.

Edited by DarkMau5, 09 December 2017 - 01:25 PM.


DarkMau5 #14 Posted 09 December 2017 - 01:27 PM

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View PostAngelofAwe, on 06 December 2017 - 12:24 AM, said:

 

Did you ever learn statistics in school darkmaus?
You're a 50% player so this is a very simple calculation to make as you're at the average.

Statistically you have a 50% chance of winning a match (due to teams averaging out and you not affecting the calculation in either direction).
The statistical chance of you losing (or winning) 3 battles in a row is for example 0,5*0,5*0,5 = 0,125. That is 12,5%.

Now let's take this to 10 losses in a row. 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 = 0,0009765... or 0,09765%. Let's round it to 0,01%.
0,01% is 1/10000th.
What that means is that if you play 10,000 battles you should statistically lose 10 battles in a row (as a 50% player) once in those 10k games.

You have 37k battles so statistically you SHOULD have lost 10 battles in a row at least 3 times, possibly 4 if you were slightly unlucky.
The only way to prevent such a thing from happening is to RIG the game to make you win. In a random matchmaking these things are natural.

Correct my math if I'm wrong, it's been a while. 


P.S. Your 6 losses in a row series should happen 1,5% of the time statistically. Or once per every 60 battles.
Or approximately 620 times over the course of your account so far.

 

I love those kind of people, who think that they are the smartest people in the universe, and everyone else is a retarded brain dead idiot. 
If you read again what I wrote, maybe you can understand better, because you are "smart guy" so go on kid ... :sceptic:

etody77 #15 Posted 09 December 2017 - 02:17 PM

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View PostAngelofAwe, on 06 December 2017 - 01:24 AM, said:

 

Did you ever learn statistics in school darkmaus?
You're a 50% player so this is a very simple calculation to make as you're at the average.

Statistically you have a 50% chance of winning a match (due to teams averaging out and you not affecting the calculation in either direction).
The statistical chance of you losing (or winning) 3 battles in a row is for example 0,5*0,5*0,5 = 0,125. That is 12,5%.

Now let's take this to 10 losses in a row. 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 = 0,0009765... or 0,09765%. Let's round it to 0,01%.
0,01% is 1/10000th.
What that means is that if you play 10,000 battles you should statistically lose 10 battles in a row (as a 50% player) once in those 10k games.

You have 37k battles so statistically you SHOULD have lost 10 battles in a row at least 3 times, possibly 4 if you were slightly unlucky.
The only way to prevent such a thing from happening is to RIG the game to make you win. In a random matchmaking these things are natural.

Correct my math if I'm wrong, it's been a while. 


P.S. Your 6 losses in a row series should happen 1,5% of the time statistically. Or once per every 60 battles.
Or approximately 620 times over the course of your account so far.

 

tell usabout probability summed to have 14 players in a team in a unlucky lose series

jabster #16 Posted 09 December 2017 - 02:58 PM

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View PostDarkMau5, on 05 December 2017 - 11:50 PM, said:

 

I will try to collect properly tomorrow, and put here on the forum !

 

I must have missed where you put it on the forum. Did you start a new thread?

arjun69 #17 Posted 09 December 2017 - 03:06 PM

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1. the op has no clue how statistics works.

2. over a large amount of battles nearly EVERYTHING is POSSIBLE

3. there ar at least 2 similar topicks here every feckig day. usually by bad players, which are too dumb for the game AND too dumb for simple maths.

 


Edited by arjun69, 09 December 2017 - 03:06 PM.


PowJay #18 Posted 09 December 2017 - 03:49 PM

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As an example of what I can achieve, the other day the New Year Fuss mission was to be in the top 7 on damage in three battles. I played three tier IV TDs and had 5, 5 and 4 kills, coming second on damage in the first two battles at tier V max, and fourth on damage in the third, tier VI battle. We won all three, and I survived all three.

 

Since then, it has all gone totally belly up. For the mission to win five battles, I won two from seven and then gave up. I have just lost three in a row in the BT-7 Artillery, which was one of my best tanks back when it used to see tier V. I have lost something like three from five, or even four from six, battles in the Pz I C this morning. In fact, it is possible that I have only won one.


I lost a string of battles in the Marder 38T the other day. This is a vehicles so good that I just came second on damage in a winning tier VI battle this morning, and is not unusual for me to do very well. Two kills, three kills, four kills and still lose.


 

Excrement quite clearly occurs. All you can do is try to adapt some sort of shield to reduce the amount that hits- In other words: git gudder, I guess.



DarkMau5 #19 Posted 09 December 2017 - 04:25 PM

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View Postarjun69, on 09 December 2017 - 02:06 PM, said:

1. the op has no clue how statistics works.

2. over a large amount of battles nearly EVERYTHING is POSSIBLE

3. there ar at least 2 similar topicks here every feckig day. usually by bad players, which are too dumb for the game AND too dumb for simple maths.

 

 

1. Don't you think you are arrogant, by blaming people that are "idiots" ?
2. Yes, it's possible, just like what I wrote in the topic.
3. Do you consider yourself as a good player ?

Edited by DarkMau5, 09 December 2017 - 04:28 PM.


stormermp #20 Posted 09 December 2017 - 04:41 PM

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 This post has been edited by the moderation team due to inappropriate remarks.

 

Edited by Jahrakajin, 13 December 2017 - 10:48 AM.
Avoid: Insults






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