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Daily prediction for the final fame points required

gambit fame fame points prediction top 11k top 4k campaign daily update

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SirGruut #1 Posted 08 December 2017 - 01:04 PM

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I'm here once again with some statistics for this campaign, this time i'm tracking the amount of fame points gained every day and using it to predict the fame points you will need minimally to achieve the top 4000 or the top 11000. This predicition includes losing 2 days of campaign because the global map will most likely be frozen for the release of 9.21.

 

the prediction for 11/12 with 8 days left is :

 

Top 4000 will require 54034 fame points

Top 11000 will require 20325 fame points

 

This means that on average you will need at least the following number of points to keep your position:

3030 fame points/day to keep the top 4000 position

1215 fame points/day to keep the top 11000 position

 

Keep in mind that these values will possibly increase slightly during the campaign, i will give daily updates by editing this post to keep the prediction as good as possible.

 

Happy tanking and good luck to everyone playing!

 

In the spoiler I will shortly describe how i get to these values:

Spoiler

 


Edited by SirGruut, 12 December 2017 - 09:42 AM.


StinkyStonky #2 Posted 08 December 2017 - 04:04 PM

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View PostSirGruut, on 08 December 2017 - 12:04 PM, said:

This means that on average you will need at least the following number of points to keep your position:

2437 fame points/day to keep the top 11000 position

833 fame points/day to keep the top 4000 position

 

 

Surely that's wrong.  Players in the top 3-5000 must have/be earning more points than those in 10-12000 so surely they must need more points per day to hold their position.

 

High ranking players are earning loads a day whereas low ranking players are only earning a few.

 

Did you just get the two numbers the wrong way around ? 2400 to stay in top 4k, 800 to stay in top 11k ?



SirGruut #3 Posted 09 December 2017 - 10:53 AM

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View PostStinkyStonky, on 08 December 2017 - 03:04 PM, said:

 

Surely that's wrong.  Players in the top 3-5000 must have/be earning more points than those in 10-12000 so surely they must need more points per day to hold their position.

 

High ranking players are earning loads a day whereas low ranking players are only earning a few.

 

Did you just get the two numbers the wrong way around ? 2400 to stay in top 4k, 800 to stay in top 11k ?

 

I did turn it around yes, thx for that :)

 



SirGruut #4 Posted 09 December 2017 - 10:56 AM

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Just updated it after yesterdays battles :)

ExorcistFi #5 Posted 09 December 2017 - 03:58 PM

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Thanks. wotevent.guildity.com used to track this last campaign and it was really useful on determining which people needed games to be 'safe'. Great effort and hopefully we'll get daily updates!

SirGruut #6 Posted 10 December 2017 - 12:35 PM

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Updated again for yesterday's battles

K_A #7 Posted 10 December 2017 - 09:22 PM

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So, is 4k the assumed magic number for people who might have a chance at the reward tank this season or?

SirGruut #8 Posted 10 December 2017 - 10:26 PM

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i choose 4k because that is around the treshold where you are able to get 4k bonds with a decent clan multiplier. I should have probably used 6k but cant change it anymore now



Serprotease #9 Posted 11 December 2017 - 12:40 AM

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Don't forget that in the last couple of days ppl will rush to get their point. So the number of point for 11 000 will most likely be higher

SirGruut #10 Posted 11 December 2017 - 09:46 AM

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I updated the result for 10/12 battles.

 

 

View PostSerprotease, on 10 December 2017 - 11:40 PM, said:

Don't forget that in the last couple of days ppl will rush to get their point. So the number of point for 11 000 will most likely be higher

 

I included that in my prediction, i'm using something that looks like an exponential. That is also the reason that the end result stayed the same today even tho the requirement to stay in the top 11k went up by 100.



SirGruut #11 Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:43 AM

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Updated for 11/12, the values are starting to really increase because people are getting stressed for their bonds/position. It will probably go up even more

thompyka #12 Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:01 AM

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View PostSirGruut, on 12 December 2017 - 08:43 AM, said:

Updated for 11/12, the values are starting to really increase because people are getting stressed for their bonds/position. It will probably go up even more

 

Did you calculated, that GM will be frozen 2 days on the 13th and 14th December? And also the last day of campaign is 20th, not 21?

SirGruut #13 Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:17 AM

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i did account for those 2 frozen days

i counted battles on the 21st since i dont know for sure when it will end. It might indeed end at 7am on the 21st



Jan2709 #14 Posted 16 December 2017 - 12:45 AM

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do you still update this?

pls :ohmy:



MaxD_Cro #15 Posted 18 December 2017 - 09:58 PM

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Any updates on prediction ?

eldrak #16 Posted 19 December 2017 - 10:32 AM

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11k spot: ~24500

 

It's been increasing by around 2k last few days and there's 3 days to go.



jevtta #17 Posted 21 December 2017 - 10:14 AM

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There is a BIG PROBLEM!

All of top 100 clans earns money:

 

They got new players every day from other clans who pay them to get fame points. Top clans player play 4 games on elite front on that account and for one night that new-come players got 60.000 fame point and get a tank. Players from other clans pay them 100euro for the one day in top 100 clan to get tank. (points)

If you dont believe me, please look top 100 clans history in/out players for just last 7 days.

IF 50 new come players pays for 100euro there is 5.000e for the commander of every clan.

 

So problem is that you cannot predict anything because you dont get pushed down on list from top 100 clans, you get push down on list by other noob players who enter the top 100 clans with win8 800 and pay 100e for one night to get points on elite front.

 

How do you explain that player with parametar  win8 800-1800 get in best clans with average win8 3000 and play 4 games on elite front? They enter a clan with low win8 and play in team same day and go out from clan next day.

 

IF you are commander of some clan please send a ticket to war gaming and let them know this fact. They can ban the new come players and fame point list will look different!



SirGruut #18 Posted 21 December 2017 - 01:03 PM

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11k will end up around 25-27k btw, i havent updated in a while since another clan member started to track all the bonds values and i couldnt be bothered anymore. I hope it still gave a usefull indication during the campaign

Edited by SirGruut, 21 December 2017 - 01:03 PM.





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