Jump to content


Winrate = luck

mm wr rng

  • Please log in to reply
51 replies to this topic

komunistu33 #1 Posted 21 December 2017 - 02:50 AM

    Corporal

  • Player
  • 7551 battles
  • 197
  • Member since:
    11-04-2013

Exhibit A: Panther 2, great crew, equipment and superunicum gamplay, 3 marks, a tank that can wreck havoc in any tier, only 51% Win rate.

 

Exhibit B: STOCK tier 5 skoda, NO equipment, stock 80% crew, binocs and camo as equipment because LOL credits, 77% WR and barely done anything. 

 

Spoiler

 

Tell me again how Winrate is relevant when you get punished for playing well an rewarded for being medicred? It's just randomat this point. 



Derethim #2 Posted 21 December 2017 - 02:55 AM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 16434 battles
  • 1,717
  • Member since:
    04-03-2012

You can't possibly compare those two from such a small sample. 13 battles versus 127? I had 85% in my first 15 battles with the Chi-Ri, does that make me a super unicum? No, of course not.

On another note, the Panther II is a rather average-performing tank for it's tier. Plus, you're comparing tier VIII and tier V. Of course on tier V the skill ceiling will be lower and a lot of newbies get stuck on tier V making credits and serve as food for the better players, who either do the same, or are just dirty, dirty bad boy sealclubbers :P



komunistu33 #3 Posted 21 December 2017 - 02:58 AM

    Corporal

  • Player
  • 7551 battles
  • 197
  • Member since:
    11-04-2013

View PostDerethim, on 21 December 2017 - 02:55 AM, said:

You can't possibly compare those two from such a small sample. 13 battles versus 127? I had 85% in my first 15 battles with the Chi-Ri, does that make me a super unicum? No, of course not.

On another note, the Panther II is a rather average-performing tank for it's tier. Plus, you're comparing tier VIII and tier V. Of course on tier V the skill ceiling will be lower and a lot of newbies get stuck on tier V making credits and serve as food for the better players, who either do the same, or are just dirty, dirty bad boy sealclubbers :P

 

Sure, but do you notice anything off? 

 

Spoiler

 

Funny, in all tanks I play aggressively, spot, push, bully but one of them seems to under[erform in terms of WR. Sp the only conclusion is that WR is luck since I play it perfectly but lost more than I should. Can't wait to buy the E 50 and see how RNG treats me (i.e. either 60-70% WR or 40-50% because LOL tomatoes).


Edited by komunistu33, 21 December 2017 - 03:02 AM.


K_A #4 Posted 21 December 2017 - 02:59 AM

    Brigadier

  • Player
  • 13566 battles
  • 4,656
  • [T-D-U] T-D-U
  • Member since:
    04-18-2013
Those sample sizes... :facepalm: 

komunistu33 #5 Posted 21 December 2017 - 03:05 AM

    Corporal

  • Player
  • 7551 battles
  • 197
  • Member since:
    11-04-2013

View PostK_A, on 21 December 2017 - 02:59 AM, said:

Those sample sizes... :facepalm: 

 

I won 13 out of 15 games. I SHOULDN'T HAVE WON THOSE, I didn't deserve those wins. On the other hand I should be winning WAY more than 51% in my panther II given my performance. It just isn't CORRELATED. If I do good I should win, if I don't I should lose. Why did I win games where I couldn't pen anything (tier 5)? I got CARRIED and was basically uselss (only did my HP or LESS in dmg). 

 

WG should reward based on individual performance, not LUCK in terms of teams. 



fighting_falcon93 #6 Posted 21 December 2017 - 03:25 AM

    Lieutenant Сolonel

  • Player
  • 29338 battles
  • 3,334
  • Member since:
    02-05-2013
Winrate IS luck when the sample size is that SMALL...

Derethim #7 Posted 21 December 2017 - 03:30 AM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 16434 battles
  • 1,717
  • Member since:
    04-03-2012

View Postkomunistu33, on 21 December 2017 - 03:05 AM, said:

WG should reward based on individual performance, not LUCK in terms of teams. 

 

Actually, WoT is a MOBA. You can't carry a game alone in the MOBA genre, unless the game is horribly unbalanced. Certain tanks in WoT are a good example, but you still need to be a great player to win it alone.

I'd actually prefer the opposite - Wargaming should reward teams, that work together to win, not the teams carried by individuals. But the second option makes more money, so, yeah...

You might just get what you want some time in the future in the form of horrendously OP tanks, or something like that.



lmperfection #8 Posted 21 December 2017 - 03:36 AM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Player
  • 17827 battles
  • 316
  • [LGACY] LGACY
  • Member since:
    09-30-2015
You could also accept the fact that a lot of the time you have no control over the outcomes of your games, maybe 25% of them, but the other 75% you do have control over and you're not taking advantage or using your influence effectively. Not playing to your team. I read that you rush, briefly, maybe don't do that..? 

hson_hson #9 Posted 21 December 2017 - 03:43 AM

    Corporal

  • Player
  • 6486 battles
  • 154
  • Member since:
    08-19-2014

View Postkomunistu33, on 21 December 2017 - 02:50 AM, said:

 

Tell me again how Winrate is relevant when you get punished for playing well an rewarded for being medicred? It's just randomat this point. 

 

You should discuss it with the OP in this thread

http://forum.worldoftanks.eu/index.php?/topic/655422-if-your-winrate-starts-with-4/

You two together might have some things to talk about



AngelofAwe #10 Posted 21 December 2017 - 04:03 AM

    Lieutenant Сolonel

  • WGL PRO Player
  • 39030 battles
  • 3,057
  • Member since:
    12-24-2011
WR is luck!! 




K_A #11 Posted 21 December 2017 - 04:40 AM

    Brigadier

  • Player
  • 13566 battles
  • 4,656
  • [T-D-U] T-D-U
  • Member since:
    04-18-2013

View PostAngelofAwe, on 21 December 2017 - 03:03 AM, said:

WR is luck!! 


 

I know right!

 



lmperfection #12 Posted 21 December 2017 - 05:14 AM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Player
  • 17827 battles
  • 316
  • [LGACY] LGACY
  • Member since:
    09-30-2015

View PostK_A, on 21 December 2017 - 03:40 AM, said:

 

I know right!

 

 

Impressive, but I found a fault in the win-rate =/= luck. If you're an amazing player at teir 3, like myself, you can actually get a flawless victory. Maybe even victories, but more research is needed.



K_A #13 Posted 21 December 2017 - 05:21 AM

    Brigadier

  • Player
  • 13566 battles
  • 4,656
  • [T-D-U] T-D-U
  • Member since:
    04-18-2013

View Postlmperfection, on 21 December 2017 - 04:14 AM, said:

 

Impressive, but I found a fault in the win-rate =/= luck. If you're an amazing player at teir 3, like myself, you can actually get a flawless victory. Maybe even victories, but more research is needed.

 

I too found what I at first thought was a fault!

 

 

But upon further inspection I noticed that when I went down the list the next tank had ACE TANKER meaning I did really well in it, but the tank in top doesn't even have one, so clearly my skill hasn't had anything to do with it. Also the tank with less winrate has actually MORE damage done! :ohmy: Clearly completely arbitrary.



lmperfection #14 Posted 21 December 2017 - 05:22 AM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Player
  • 17827 battles
  • 316
  • [LGACY] LGACY
  • Member since:
    09-30-2015

View PostK_A, on 21 December 2017 - 04:21 AM, said:

 

I too found what I at first thought was a fault!

 

 

But upon further inspection I noticed that when I went down the list the next tank had ACE TANKER meaning I did really well in it, but the tank in top doesn't even have one, so clearly my skill hasn't had anything to do with it. Also the tank with less winrate has actually MORE damage done! :ohmy: Clearly completely arbitrary.

 

Is one (before I had rammer) and the other (once you 3 marked it) ?

 



K_A #15 Posted 21 December 2017 - 05:25 AM

    Brigadier

  • Player
  • 13566 battles
  • 4,656
  • [T-D-U] T-D-U
  • Member since:
    04-18-2013

View Postlmperfection, on 21 December 2017 - 04:22 AM, said:

 

Is one (before I had rammer) and the other (once you 3 marked it) ?

 

 

Actually yes, now that I think about it, Sentinel was very recent, just got from the boxes, while the Swedish tanks came a whole year ago, so of course there's a big difference in my l33t skills. And I of course was able to paint the Sentinel with new customisation system! Also it's a premium tank and we all know those are all overpowered pay2win so that must have something to do with it :child:

lmperfection #16 Posted 21 December 2017 - 05:30 AM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Player
  • 17827 battles
  • 316
  • [LGACY] LGACY
  • Member since:
    09-30-2015

View PostK_A, on 21 December 2017 - 04:25 AM, said:

 

Actually yes, now that I think about it, Sentinel was very recent, just got from the boxes, while the Swedish tanks came a whole year ago, so of course there's a big difference in my l33t skills. And I of course was able to paint the Sentinel with new customisation system! Also it's a premium tank and we all know those are all overpowered pay2win so that must have something to do with it :child:

 

I have, in my studies, uncovered another ancient artefact, from this week. 

 

Fig.8

As demonstrated visually from our expert graphic design teams reconstruction of my statistics in both the M46 patton and the M48 patton. One is a teir above, has more damage, yet due to me being drunk the win-rate, wn8 and all other jazz has dropped!!! This is ground breaking. As if our own actions effect our gameplay and in-turn our games outcome, hense win-rate? More research is needed.



Shaade_Silentpaw #17 Posted 21 December 2017 - 05:32 AM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Player
  • 21117 battles
  • 334
  • Member since:
    10-12-2015

The only thing you have to do to disprove this is look at the Winrate vs. WN8 of different players.

You'll notice that the majority of unicums have 60%+ WR, majority of blues are like 58-62%, greens mostly 52-58%, yellows 48-52%, etc. etc.

 

It's true, there is SOME luck involved - as it is with pretty much every aspect of WoT, but it is only a fraction.

The majority is player skill and good strategy.



thiextar #18 Posted 21 December 2017 - 07:11 AM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 15353 battles
  • 519
  • Member since:
    06-21-2012
Luck and teams averages out after a few hundred games, the only constant in your stats is your own skill. Which i can blatatantly see in my own stats, as i dropped my recent wn8 by like 1000 points by leaving the game for a few months and returning again. Almost as if my rustiness was a bigger deal than luck? Cant be right. 

slitth #19 Posted 21 December 2017 - 07:57 AM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 11909 battles
  • 859
  • Member since:
    06-23-2011

Sure sometimes you win a game because you are luck.

 

But I think that you win fare more games because you had a positive influence on the team's performance.

Most of this positive influence case be seen in terms of stats.

But there's one thing that can never be shown.  Distraction.

 

Even the lowest stock tank can help a team win by simply being a distraction.

Even if it did 0 damage, spotted 0 tanks and block 0 damage a tank can still hold the focus of one or more tanks.

And the more tanks that is distraction and the longer time they are distracted, the more space the team haves to get the upper hand.



Excavatus #20 Posted 21 December 2017 - 08:04 AM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 18865 battles
  • 1,653
  • [T-D-U] T-D-U
  • Member since:
    07-28-2013

View Postkomunistu33, on 21 December 2017 - 04:50 AM, said:

Exhibit A: Panther 2, great crew, equipment and superunicum gamplay, 3 marks, a tank that can wreck havoc in any tier, only 51% Win rate.

 

I stopped reading after that,

Nothing can be taken serious after that...

You know panther 2 is tier VIII :)

in current tier VIIIs with Current MM...

 


Edited by Excavatus, 21 December 2017 - 08:05 AM.






Also tagged with mm, wr, rng

1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users