Jump to content


Let's find out what the tier VIII premium tank dropping probability is!


  • Please log in to reply
88 replies to this topic

ortega456 #1 Posted 23 December 2017 - 12:53 PM

    Second Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 60457 battles
  • 1,010
  • Member since:
    06-08-2012

Hey guys,

 

there have been a lot of threads about the christmas boxes. There have been a lot of bitter tears for people who spent tons of money on boxes without receiving the tier 8 premium tanks as well as people who bought only a few boxes and got amazed by getting a tier 8 premium tank with minimal invest.

 

In the other thread http://forum.worldoftanks.eu/index.php?/topic/655604-break-down-on-boxes-150-boxes-opened/ Ph3lan said that the probability of getting a tier 8 prem tank is constant per box and doesn't change with time (e.g. on day 1 the probability was the same as on day 1+n).

He also said he didn't wanna disclose the exact probability per box of getting any premium tier 8 tank.

 

So here is my suggestion: Why don't WE find out ourselves? All we need to do is to get a big enough data sample which size allows as to approximate the dropping probabilitties. We could also do a significance test to ensure the statistical hypothesis is within a secure margin. Also we could do other statistical tests to check for the correctness of assumed probability density function.

 

All  YOU need to do is post the amount of boxes you bought (e.g. 3 + 11 +75) and exactly how ofter you got a tier 8 premium tank within your sample size.

 

I would do the math and present you my figures after enough sample data has been provided!

 

This would give people a more secure assessment of how much money they wanna invest because they could calculate the chance of tier 8 prem per money spent!

 

What do you think? Who's gonna take part?

 

I'll start:

 

Boxes: 3 + 3 + 25

Drops: 0 + 0 + 1 (Type 59)

 

 



 

So here are my preliminary Results:

Taking Binomial-Distribution as the probability function I've tested the results for a alpha (significance level) of 0.01 or 1% and fitted the data so that the independed variable would be the success probability p and found that the probability of getting a tier VIII premium per crate is 3.5% +- 0.1%.

This is a similar result to the one linearly calculated in that reddit-thread someone mentioned here.

You have to note that the approximation through this method is far more stable as a basis for calculation than taking linear approximation (number of successfull draws divided by total number of tries) against single spikes/off results.

 

So lets see how the probabilities are for the Bundle sizes of 3, 11, 25, 75 and 2x75=150 boxes:

 

Spoiler

 

To summerize the result:
The probability of about 3.5% to getting a tier 8 prem per box seems plausible. Don't forget that there might be a correlation between outlined results and posting on forum about that bad/super good luck - result.

All in all I consider it a quite fair chance and would have thought that the probability is much lower by WG but I guess their business calculations yielded the maximum amount of revenue setting the probability to this figure.

 

Any additional thoughts? Something unclear? Any suggestions for more calculations (like probability per euro gained or similar)?

 

Just let me know! Have fun and good luck!


Edited by ortega456, 26 December 2017 - 02:34 PM.


Del059 #2 Posted 23 December 2017 - 12:58 PM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Player
  • 29704 battles
  • 324
  • Member since:
    12-15-2013

On EU account

 

225 boxes  (3 x 75) 0 + 1 + 3

 

On NA account

 

53 boxes (3 + 25 25) 0+1+1



ZlatanArKung #3 Posted 23 December 2017 - 12:59 PM

    Major General

  • Player
  • 1529 battles
  • 5,112
  • Member since:
    12-20-2014
3 box

0 tanks

Uebergewicht #4 Posted 23 December 2017 - 01:00 PM

    Second Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 11702 battles
  • 1,035
  • [ATD] ATD
  • Member since:
    11-15-2015

11 boxes

1 tier VIII

 

 

 

Companies are fighting nail and tooth to not disclose loot box drop rates. Really shady move.



Schepel #5 Posted 23 December 2017 - 01:03 PM

    Lieutenant Сolonel

  • Player
  • 57368 battles
  • 3,008
  • Member since:
    05-13-2013

25 boxes: 0

75 boxes: 1 (type 59)

 

FWIW: I think you should approach the boxes as a source of gold, credits and premium time. If you want that, then they are a very good investment. Especially since the new year bonuses allow you to grind crazy credits with a 48% credit income boost. If you are just looking to get a tank: do not go there. Only pain and suffering will follow.



Holdes #6 Posted 23 December 2017 - 01:20 PM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 18776 battles
  • 548
  • Member since:
    06-10-2012
Boxes: 3+3+11
Drops: 0

Schemezoid #7 Posted 23 December 2017 - 01:23 PM

    Major

  • Player
  • 20230 battles
  • 2,710
  • Member since:
    11-29-2013
3+11: 1 type59

Isiween_ #8 Posted 23 December 2017 - 01:23 PM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Player
  • 19753 battles
  • 304
  • [T-D-U] T-D-U
  • Member since:
    01-07-2013
75 boxes, 1 Type 59

Holdes #9 Posted 23 December 2017 - 01:24 PM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 18776 battles
  • 548
  • Member since:
    06-10-2012

http://forum.worldof...4#entry15165754

 

PostPolski11, on 19 December 2017 - 06:39 PM, said:

so lets make statistic... post your results here... (only forum active players will read this)

U can post it here and I will edit this post...

59 boxes = 1x T8 +8x T4 (me)
11 boxes = 0 tanks (Saphhire89)
22 boxes = 2x T8 + few T4 (cosijeaaak)
33 boxes = 0 tanks (_Kamen_)
11 boxes = 0 tanks (Kartonas)
17 boxes = 0x T8 + 5x T4 (Holdes)

 

 


Edited by Holdes, 23 December 2017 - 01:27 PM.


magkiln #10 Posted 23 December 2017 - 02:05 PM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 22680 battles
  • 731
  • [EKKE] EKKE
  • Member since:
    09-21-2015

On EU account.

Two 75 boxes. Got Type 59 and T26E5. (also a tier 4)

However, I ended up with over 100,000 gold and a bunch of garage slots, so there msut have been more (except I already had them)



Merton15 #11 Posted 23 December 2017 - 02:08 PM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Player
  • 13845 battles
  • 464
  • Member since:
    04-08-2011
11 boxes - 1 T4 (and the F30 rather than the Sentinel which would have been useful as a trainer).

Long_Range_Sniper #12 Posted 23 December 2017 - 02:15 PM

    General

  • Player
  • 30702 battles
  • 8,299
  • [-MM] -MM
  • Member since:
    04-04-2011

3+11+11 bought and one type 59

3+3+3+3 gifted to me and nothing but gold and stuff.

 

37 Boxes in total and one Type 59.



OreH75 #13 Posted 23 December 2017 - 02:15 PM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 46984 battles
  • 1,998
  • [RANGR] RANGR
  • Member since:
    05-29-2013

11 boxes: 0

  3 boxes: 1 (Type)


Edited by OreH75, 23 December 2017 - 02:16 PM.


Homer_J #14 Posted 23 December 2017 - 02:16 PM

    Field Marshal

  • Beta Tester
  • 27652 battles
  • 29,000
  • [WJDE] WJDE
  • Member since:
    09-03-2010

11 boxes, 0 tier VIII premiums.

 

What constitutes a large enough sample size?  You only get a tiny minority of players on the forum and a lot of those who got a tier VIII premium only visited to brag about it and we won;t see them again until the next time.



AvengerOrion #15 Posted 23 December 2017 - 02:19 PM

    Second Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 25351 battles
  • 1,037
  • Member since:
    12-21-2013
75 boxes: 6 tier IV, 0 tier VIII

Edited by AvengerOrion, 23 December 2017 - 02:23 PM.


cmgamesro #16 Posted 23 December 2017 - 02:27 PM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 11544 battles
  • 539
  • [DS-RO] DS-RO
  • Member since:
    11-16-2015

so 1.81%

 

Edit: that means 

X3 = 5.43%

X11 = 19.91%

X25 = 45.25%

X75 = 135.75%


Edited by cmgamesro, 23 December 2017 - 02:47 PM.


UserZer00 #17 Posted 23 December 2017 - 02:38 PM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Player
  • 9244 battles
  • 484
  • Member since:
    03-05-2013
86 boxes 75+11
0 tier 8
(All tier 4)

TeddyMosby #18 Posted 23 December 2017 - 02:53 PM

    Private

  • Player
  • 9495 battles
  • 24
  • [SETI] SETI
  • Member since:
    04-24-2013
2x11 boxes one day and another 11 boxes.

33 boxes total

1x type 59
1x t26e5
1x f30
1x sentinal

3x tier 4s that I already had

That's my total tanks from those boxes

SF_Tank #19 Posted 23 December 2017 - 03:12 PM

    Corporal

  • Player
  • 16120 battles
  • 142
  • Member since:
    03-16-2013

Hi!

 

-Me: 39 boxes, 0 tier 8

-My fried: 25 boxes, 1 tier 8


 

EU server.


 

SF


 

 



flashbarts #20 Posted 23 December 2017 - 03:15 PM

    Sergeant

  • Player
  • 41099 battles
  • 213
  • Member since:
    06-30-2013

48 boxes

 

type

 

2 x gold equivalent for t8s






1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users