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Crafting Decorations is a SHAM !

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Turbo_RS #1 Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:36 PM

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All ive need for 3 weeks now is  1 Traditional present (the tier V puppy) 

 

I have traded in 100s and 100s of lower tier decorations and crafted over 10-15 tier V Lanterns every time !!!!  what a total fix to make sure everyone isn't driving around in stupid camo !

 

its a 50/50 chance of getting a Lantern or a puppy and this Is becoming a £uck*ng joke receiving lantern every time  !!

 

If you flipped a coin 15 times ..  what are the odds of landing heads 15 times ???  

 

 

 


Edited by Turbo_RS, 29 December 2017 - 04:37 PM.


DracheimFlug #2 Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:42 PM

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View PostTurbo_RS, on 29 December 2017 - 04:36 PM, said:

All ive need for 3 weeks now is  1 Traditional present (the tier V puppy) 

 

I have traded in 100s and 100s of lower tier decorations and crafted over 10-15 tier V Lanterns every time !!!!  what a total fix to make sure everyone isn't driving around in stupid camo !

 

its a 50/50 chance of getting a Lantern or a puppy and this Is becoming a £uck*ng joke receiving lantern every time  !!

 

If you flipped a coin 15 times ..  what are the odds of landing heads 15 times ???  

 

 

 

 

Why are you assuming the chances are 50/50 just because there are two options? Where exactly is that stated? It could be 90/10 for all any of us know.

Turbo_RS #3 Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:43 PM

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View PostDracheimFlug, on 29 December 2017 - 03:42 PM, said:

 

Why are you assuming the chances are 50/50 just because there are two options? Where exactly is that stated? It could be 90/10 for all any of us know.

 

fair point .. but then that isn't fair is it .. which is why its a sham  



Tidal_Force #4 Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:47 PM

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View PostTurbo_RS, on 29 December 2017 - 03:36 PM, said:

If you flipped a coin 15 times ..  what are the odds of landing heads 15 times ???  

 

 

 

 

2^(-15)=0.00003051757

Vajsravana #5 Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:48 PM

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View PostTurbo_RS, on 29 December 2017 - 05:36 PM, said:

If you flipped a coin 15 times ..  what are the odds of landing heads 15 times ???  

 

1 on 32768. It's much more probable than you think. If all the 75 millions registered WoT players try to flip a coin 15 times, 2288 of them are expected to get all heads.

Not that I see how this is related to your "problem", but still...



DracheimFlug #6 Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:48 PM

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View PostTurbo_RS, on 29 December 2017 - 04:43 PM, said:

 

fair point .. but then that isn't fair is it .. which is why its a sham  

 

Define fair.

OIias_of_Sunhillow #7 Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:50 PM

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It amuses me greatly that some are taking this seasonal, 'bit-of-fun', so seriously.  :teethhappy:

Headless_Rooster #8 Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:51 PM

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10-15 times? Blimey you've got some patience!

 

I gave up on the 5th attempt @ the same tier V russian shard, way too much frustration for a crappy clown camo I don't really want anyway, now I only convert if I'm definately going to get 1/2 or 1/1 that I need to get all the sections >55 shards to get the full 48% bonuses, sack that camo malarkey!



Turbo_RS #9 Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:53 PM

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View PostDracheimFlug, on 29 December 2017 - 03:48 PM, said:

 

Define fair.

 

​unhidden calculation factors so we are not led into false believes 

Turbo_RS #10 Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:55 PM

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View PostOIias_of_Sunhillow, on 29 December 2017 - 03:50 PM, said:

It amuses me greatly that some are taking this seasonal, 'bit-of-fun', so seriously.  :teethhappy:

 

​if you have worked for something, would you like to see the end result ?>

Turbo_RS #11 Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:57 PM

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View PostHeadless_Rooster, on 29 December 2017 - 03:51 PM, said:

10-15 times? Blimey you've got some patience!

 

I gave up on the 5th attempt @ the same tier V russian shard, way too much frustration for a crappy clown camo I don't really want anyway, now I only convert if I'm definately going to get 1/2 or 1/1 that I need to get all the sections >55 shards to get the full 48% bonuses, sack that camo malarkey!

 

​Oh look Wargaming have put it up for Sale to buy the silly camos ... that explains it now  what a joke  :amazed:      

 



250swb #12 Posted 29 December 2017 - 05:00 PM

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That's a bummer. I've finished all my decorations so I made the excess into 14,000 shards, set the decolider, and got a puppy first and second go, third go was a lantern. Just thought I would cheer you up and let you know it is possible :teethhappy: 

Alpine_Ibex #13 Posted 29 December 2017 - 05:02 PM

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View PostTurbo_RS, on 29 December 2017 - 04:36 PM, said:

All ive need for 3 weeks now is  1 Traditional present (the tier V puppy) 

 

I have traded in 100s and 100s of lower tier decorations and crafted over 10-15 tier V Lanterns every time !!!!  what a total fix to make sure everyone isn't driving around in stupid camo !

 

its a 50/50 chance of getting a Lantern or a puppy and this Is becoming a £uck*ng joke receiving lantern every time  !!

 

If you flipped a coin 15 times ..  what are the odds of landing heads 15 times ???  

 

 

 

 

Go flip a coin 15 times and whatever your outcome is it's exactly the same odds as getting 15 heads in a row. :playing:

jack_timber #14 Posted 29 December 2017 - 05:13 PM

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Haven't got any coins to flip spent em all at Xmas....

But the crafting is better this year than last now that was a lottery trying different recipes that never worked, for me anyways.

Just keep trying....



DracheimFlug #15 Posted 29 December 2017 - 05:16 PM

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View PostAlpine_Ibex, on 29 December 2017 - 05:02 PM, said:

 

Go flip a coin 15 times and whatever your outcome is it's exactly the same odds as getting 15 heads in a row. :playing:

 

And more specifically, the odds after the fact are 100% chance of whatever outcome you got :)

Uebergewicht #16 Posted 29 December 2017 - 05:36 PM

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View PostVajsravana, on 29 December 2017 - 04:48 PM, said:

 

1 on 32768. It's much more probable than you think. If all the 75 millions registered WoT players try to flip a coin 15 times, 2288 of them are expected to get all heads.

Not that I see how this is related to your "problem", but still...

 

To be fair, each other possible outcome is just as likely.

Tidal_Force #17 Posted 29 December 2017 - 05:42 PM

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View PostAlpine_Ibex, on 29 December 2017 - 04:02 PM, said:

 

Go flip a coin 15 times and whatever your outcome is it's exactly the same odds as getting 15 heads in a row. :playing:

 

Wrong.

 

Every single microstate has same chance. Same is not the case for macrostates. There is only 1 micro-state where you have 15 heads, but there are 15 microstates where you have 14 heads and 1 tail and 6435 microstates with 8 heads and 7 tails. Probability of having certain macroscopic outcome is equal to fraction of microstates realising that macrostate to all possible microstates, which makes it obvious that getting 8 heads is much more likely than 15 heads.

 

OP needs one puppy or whatever he needs, which means there is literally 1 macrostate which fails his needs and that macrostate has only one possible microstate, every other possible microstate realises macrostate which fulfils his needs.


Edited by Tidal_Force, 29 December 2017 - 05:44 PM.


Pandabird #18 Posted 29 December 2017 - 05:49 PM

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I'd wait for the very last day (14'th) until crafting anything. There's still chances of getting missing bling as random drops.

Also i'd keep one set of lvl 1 decorations so i can smash the 5's hanging for more shards (can't check if you can actually *remove* decorations or just replace). Camos will be usable even when event is over, might as well maximize chances of getting as many as possible.

Obsessive_Compulsive #19 Posted 29 December 2017 - 05:58 PM

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View PostTidal_Force, on 29 December 2017 - 05:42 PM, said:

 

Wrong.

 

Every single microstate has same chance. Same is not the case for macrostates. There is only 1 micro-state where you have 15 heads, but there are 15 microstates where you have 14 heads and 1 tail and 6435 microstates with 8 heads and 7 tails. Probability of having certain macroscopic outcome is equal to fraction of microstates realising that macrostate to all possible microstates, which makes it obvious that getting 8 heads is much more likely than 15 heads.

 

OP needs one puppy or whatever he needs, which means there is literally 1 macrostate which fails his needs and that macrostate has only one possible microstate, every other possible microstate realises macrostate which fulfils his needs.



Codename_Jelly #20 Posted 29 December 2017 - 06:04 PM

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View PostOIias_of_Sunhillow, on 29 December 2017 - 03:50 PM, said:

It amuses me greatly that some are taking this seasonal, 'bit-of-fun', so seriously.  :teethhappy:

 

If there was no reward for filling collection it wouldn't bother them.

 

I am getting the feeling unless you fork over the ££ you aint doing it.


Edited by Codename_Jelly, 29 December 2017 - 06:07 PM.





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