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The effect of dispersion, accuracy + RNG ( numbers inside)

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brumbarr #1 Posted 08 January 2018 - 08:53 PM

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So, I was trying to relax a bit after I had an exam this morning ( nailed it btw) , so I decided to do some calculations I promised to do some time ago. 


In this thread I will calculate  the actual chances to hit, and how dispersion/aimtime/accuracy effect that.

I will also go over how equipment/consumables/skills affect the chances to hit.


I basicly combine 2 of my previous threads in 1:







I calculated the chances to hit with accuracies ranging from 0.25 to 0.45 on 3 different targets. 

1) A circle of 1.25m radius, about the equivalent of a  normal sized tank. 

2)A circle of 0.5m radius, about the equivalent of a tanks lower plate.

3) A circle of 0.15m radius, abotu the equivalent of a small weakspot ( cupola, drivers hatch etc..)





Chances to hit in function of accuracy number.




Raw numbers: 



Target 2:




raw numbers







Raw numbers:




THe chances to hit dont differ much between accuracy vallues, 0.25 and 0.45 are not that much different. 


Speed and dispersion


In the prvevious thread I alreayd calculated how every factor impacts the size of the aiming circle  and plotted the size in fucntion of time. However, to know what that actually translates to in battle we need to know the chances to hit based on that size. So I combined the 2.

There are so many variables here  however that I   did the calculations for 1 specific tank,  I took a tank with average gun handling: 0.35 accuracy, 0.13 dispersion , 2.21s aimtime.


If  you want to know specific effects on different tanks, pm me or let me know here and I will  calculate and graph it for you. 

I could also send you the files but I am very messy and worked in 2 different programs which arent optimal for the task. ( Excel and maple). If someone who knows something about programming can make a nice code or  website where you can just fill in the variables and get results, let me know!


Anyway, I first plotted the chance to hit a 1.25m radius target ( equivalent to a medium sized tank) in function of speed for different distances.





Raw numbers:



Equipment, consumables and skills.


Using the same tank as before, I calculated how the chance to hit differs  with each equipment/consumable/skill to see the practical effect of them.

First the chances to hit when on the move in function of speed: 


As you can see, it does have effect, but not by much really, for example having vents or bia will allow you to hit 2 more shots in 100.  Not a massive improvement. Food imrpoves by around  3%. Vstab is the most usefull, improving the chance to hit by about 10%.  The most useless is smooth ride, only  improving the chance to hit by 1.5%ish.


But combine all of them and the result is significant, improving the chance hit at full speed by 25%. That does matter. 

Using everything there is avaible to boost gun handling will double your chance to hit compared to a normal tank, an increase of 35%, from 39 % to 74%!


Next up I calculated the chances to hit when coming to a stop from full speed after a certain time has passed. Which is what actually matters in the battle and defines how gunhandling  feels.

In this case I did it for the type61 shooting at a 1.25m radius target ( equivalent of a tank) at 400m.

I did the for every equipment piece and all of them combined, the result is this magnificent graph:



The difference of single equipments isnt big,vstabs  has again the biggest effect. But combine all of them and the effect is significant, a fully equiped tank can hit the tank with 100% accuracy after 3.2s, a non equiped one after 4.5s!! 

Mount improved equipment and that chances to 2.8s! And while you are not fully aimed the chance to hit is is 30% different!


If you have any questions pls ask. 

If you want to know what effect equipment has on a specific tank, ask me and I will calculate when I have the chance.

_T_1_T_4_N_0_ #2 Posted 08 January 2018 - 09:33 PM

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Great post maybe throw in soft stats as accuracy purely as disp don't often relate.

Its why the supposed 'snipers' in this game are not really what they are cracked up to be and yeah the difference in disp amongst tanks when it comes to pens + RNG makes very little diff.
It becomes more apparent as you rise tiers with top tiers and low disp on the majority making little diff on actual pens.

Prob why the Leo1 comes 3rd worse tank in that recent Quickybaby vid.

Battle tiers 9, 10 & 11 need a mechanic buff where spot & render is bigger.
Also like pen drop off maybe add a modifier for disp over 300m 1.1x, 400 1.2x, 500 1.3x  as its a compressed battlefield so add external natural modifiers of that naturally effect long range shots and increase dispersion.
Not really though of actual values but something like the above so that dispersion is not linear over any distance and create more difference between tanks.

Edited by DumbNumpty, 08 January 2018 - 09:34 PM.

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