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is this a graphical representation of power creep?


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Noo_Noo #1 Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:09 AM

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I'm currently playing the T-44 and not really enjoying it so I thought I would dig round a bit to get some ideas of what I'm up against. 

 

i decided to check the WR curves for it but also found this graph which basically shows the tanks WR from its introduction in the game until now. The graph is half way down the page. (Sorry I dont know how to extract it as an image on its own). 

 

In brief, its been a steady decline since the tank was introduced and that got me thinking as to why that could be. With all things being equal would I be right in saying that a WR should remain pretty steady over the longer period? What has changed to cause a steady decline inits WR? 

 

I might look at others now, just out of interest. 

 

http://wot-news.com/...u/ussr/R20_T-44



Ceeb #2 Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:20 AM

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View PostNoo_Noo, on 14 February 2018 - 10:09 AM, said:

I'm currently playing the T-44 and not really enjoying it so I thought I would dig round a bit to get some ideas of what I'm up against. 

 

i decided to check the WR curves for it but also found this graph which basically shows the tanks WR from its introduction in the game until now. The graph is half way down the page. (Sorry I dont know how to extract it as an image on its own). 

 

In brief, its been a steady decline since the tank was introduced and that got me thinking as to why that could be. With all things being equal would I be right in saying that a WR should remain pretty steady over the longer period? What has changed to cause a steady decline inits WR? 

 

I might look at others now, just out of interest. 

 

http://wot-news.com/...u/ussr/R20_T-44

 

​I've recently bought it back as wanted to grind for the 430s  and increased its original back in the day stats to over 50% from 42%

 

I really struggled with it compared to the T-44-100 and The 54 Prot.  Then I realised I was accidently using the 85mm and the stock turret.

 

Its a decent machine against like foes, don't fight the over power shlt that WG has released if you can avoid it. Use its mobility and try and I hate to say it flank take shots of opportunity harass, when top Tier...bully and push forward.

 

I'm not a great player but I really enjoy Tier 8 atm.  My starting rotation at the moment is S1, T-44, T-44-100, and 54 Prot. 



djuro900 #3 Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:25 AM

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View PostNoo_Noo, on 14 February 2018 - 10:09 AM, said:

I'm currently playing the T-44 and not really enjoying it so I thought I would dig round a bit to get some ideas of what I'm up against. 

 

i decided to check the WR curves for it but also found this graph which basically shows the tanks WR from its introduction in the game until now. The graph is half way down the page. (Sorry I dont know how to extract it as an image on its own). 

 

In brief, its been a steady decline since the tank was introduced and that got me thinking as to why that could be. With all things being equal would I be right in saying that a WR should remain pretty steady over the longer period? What has changed to cause a steady decline inits WR? 

 

I might look at others now, just out of interest. 

 

http://wot-news.com/...u/ussr/R20_T-44

 

Well one explanation could be introduction of more and more armor and corridor maps. Do other mediums have slightly decline or just this one? Also didnt this tank got some buffs in 9.22? And i also forgot probably most obvious reason,tier 8 mm sucks :)


Edited by djuro900, 14 February 2018 - 11:27 AM.


PointZero #4 Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:32 AM

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Update 9.20:

T-44

  • dispersion during movement buffed
  • dispersion on hull traverse buffed
  • dispersion on turret traverse of the 100 mm LB-1 gun buffed
  • dispersion of the 122 mm D-25-44 gun buffed
  • reload time of the 122 mm & 100m guns buffed
  • aiming time of the 122 mm & 100m guns buffed
  • Improved hull and turret armor (mantlet 120-150mm 190-200mm, turret cheeks 220-260mm 338mm)
  • 100 mm LB-1 gun penetration buffed

Update 9.22:

  • dispersion during movement further buffed by 40%
  • dispersion on hull traverse further buffed by 40%
  • reverse speed buffed
  • Changed the engine power of the V-44 engine from 520 h.p. to 760 h.p.

Edited by PointZero, 14 February 2018 - 11:35 AM.


Noo_Noo #5 Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:52 AM

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View Postdjuro900, on 14 February 2018 - 11:25 AM, said:

 

Well one explanation could be introduction of more and more armor and corridor maps. Do other mediums have slightly decline or just this one? Also didnt this tank got some buffs in 9.22? And i also forgot probably most obvious reason,tier 8 mm sucks :)

 

View PostPointZero, on 14 February 2018 - 11:32 AM, said:

Update 9.20:

T-44

  • dispersion during movement buffed
  • dispersion on hull traverse buffed
  • dispersion on turret traverse of the 100 mm LB-1 gun buffed
  • dispersion of the 122 mm D-25-44 gun buffed
  • reload time of the 122 mm & 100m guns buffed
  • aiming time of the 122 mm & 100m guns buffed
  • Improved hull and turret armor (mantlet 120-150mm 190-200mm, turret cheeks 220-260mm 338mm)
  • 100 mm LB-1 gun penetration buffed

Update 9.22:

  • dispersion during movement further buffed by 40%
  • dispersion on hull traverse further buffed by 40%
  • reverse speed buffed
  • Changed the engine power of the V-44 engine from 520 h.p. to 760 h.p.

 

Interesting. Maybe WG have seen the same data and reacted which does suggest that something like power creep is being displayed here. I cant think of any other reason for the decline to be honest, not over such a long period. Perhaps number of games might might influence it. For example if it has a decreasing game count before 9:22 too. or perhaps that's just the player base recognising that its a poorly balanced tank and avoiding it. 

You can actually filter the graph for the last 2 weeks and that seems to suggest (still too early at this stage) that the decline has stopped and perhaps a slight recovery in its WR. We'll see. 

 

Rather oddly I decided to also look at the AMX CDC given that it is a tank that is often referred to as required a bit of a buff. The graph is perfectly flat!

http://wot-news.com/...seur_de_char_46



Geno1isme #6 Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:22 PM

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Well, a few things to note regarding those graphs:

- "all time" is a lie actually as the graphs only start in late 2014, so you're missing three years of data

- for the T-44 WR has been almost constant from Aug 2014 till Summer 2016, can't really call fluctuations within 0.1% a "steady decline" in that epoch. Only after June 2016 it starts dropping significantly, which kinda matches the time when WG started to buff penetration across the board, rendering the armor advantage of the T-44 over its competitors pointless.

- the "flat" graph for the CDC is a common property of tanks introduced in/after 2014 that have no legacy data, as the graph then uses a completely different scaling: CDC scales from -20 to +60, T-44 from 49.6 to 50.4. Change the timeframe in the CDC graph to start in 2015 and it isn't so flat anymore. Always look at the actual numbers, not just the curves, they can be misleading.

- the listed WR is actually the overall global WR at that time, not the average WR at that time. So buffs/nerfs will not result in a sharp edge of the curve but constantly affect the following data (good example: Foch 155, massively overperformed before 2014, then got nerfed and the curve is still adjusting from that). So if you look at the curve of the Maus in 2017, the massive buffs in 9.17 caused a much larger change in average winrate than the indicated 0.75%

 

In summary, those curves are not trivial to interpret correctly, you really have to take context and actual numbers into account.



XxKuzkina_MatxX #7 Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:28 PM

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View PostNoo_Noo, on 14 February 2018 - 12:09 PM, said:

I'm currently playing the T-44 and not really enjoying it so I thought I would dig round a bit to get some ideas of what I'm up against.

 

Why are you not enjoying it? you are not winning enough? not doing enough damage?

Rati_Festa #8 Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:36 PM

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The recent t44 update gave it a new lease of life. The new engine has made my t44 100 more like a hybrid scout its acceleration is now very good. The turret is pretty tough and its gun is reliable, I'd guess that it will start influencing games a lot more now after its two recent buffs.

 

Its a Russian line so it won't get ignored for long if its under achieving, I can't ever recall a tank getting 2 buffs in quick succession. Silly really as there are a lot of UP tanks where this one was just mediocre, but they decided to keep improving it and ignoring more worthy vehicles imo.



Noo_Noo #9 Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:41 PM

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View PostXxKuzkina_MatxX, on 14 February 2018 - 01:28 PM, said:

 

Why are you not enjoying it? you are not winning enough? not doing enough damage?

 

Both really. Just not a good day yesterday a lot of which was my fault. Meeting a lot of OBJ 257's doesn't help much either. I haven't got the top engine yet but everything else is topped out but the engine is no excuse. 

 

A lot of bad play by me and mixed with one of them days. It may be different next time out. 



Rati_Festa #10 Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:47 PM

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View PostNoo_Noo, on 14 February 2018 - 01:41 PM, said:

 

Both really. Just not a good day yesterday a lot of which was my fault. Meeting a lot of OBJ 257's doesn't help much either. I haven't got the top engine yet but everything else is topped out but the engine is no excuse. 

 

A lot of bad play by me and mixed with one of them days. It may be different next time out. 

 

The t44 ( with the top engine ) is fast enough to relocate, that's the beauty of that tank now. Go to position, if you don't want to face off with T9's or T10's just move the new engine allows it to move around the map quite quickly. When you get the top engine the tank with change completely for you.

Noo_Noo #11 Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:21 PM

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View PostRati_Festa, on 14 February 2018 - 01:47 PM, said:

 

The t44 ( with the top engine ) is fast enough to relocate, that's the beauty of that tank now. Go to position, if you don't want to face off with T9's or T10's just move the new engine allows it to move around the map quite quickly. When you get the top engine the tank with change completely for you.

 

Mobility isn't actually that bad with the second (out of 3) to be fair. Like I said a really bad day compounded by some pretty bad play by myself too. 

 

I have found the 190 penetration a bit frustrating as well to be honest but that also doesn't excuse some of the stupid things I was doing at times. 


Edited by Noo_Noo, 14 February 2018 - 03:38 PM.


XxKuzkina_MatxX #12 Posted 14 February 2018 - 03:29 PM

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View PostNoo_Noo, on 14 February 2018 - 02:41 PM, said:

 

Both really. Just not a good day yesterday a lot of which was my fault. Meeting a lot of OBJ 257's doesn't help much either. I haven't got the top engine yet but everything else is topped out but the engine is no excuse. 

 

A lot of bad play by me and mixed with one of them days. It may be different next time out. 

 

Full APCR will help alleviate the problem :) I mean 246 mm pen with all those tier 9 and 10 battles is barely adequate. You are right about the engine , mobility was never an issue with this tank (for me at least), try to snipe a little at least at the beginning of the battle and if that's not available pick a teammate to "support" AKA tank for you AKA be opportunistic. Good luck!

Noo_Noo #13 Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:10 PM

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View PostXxKuzkina_MatxX, on 14 February 2018 - 03:29 PM, said:

 

Full APCR will help alleviate the problem :) I mean 246 mm pen with all those tier 9 and 10 battles is barely adequate. You are right about the engine , mobility was never an issue with this tank (for me at least), try to snipe a little at least at the beginning of the battle and if that's not available pick a teammate to "support" AKA tank for you AKA be opportunistic. Good luck!

 

Well trying it a little again this afternoon. Quite hilarious. 60 games 37% WR but the tank is fine. I've no issues with that. 

I'm playing better today but some sucky RNG and just one of those things again. 

 

yep confirmed as a losing streak. Hilarious in what I'm seeing on the battlefield though. 



Homer_J #14 Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:36 PM

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View PostPointZero, on 14 February 2018 - 10:32 AM, said:

Update 9.20:

 

It's been buffed umpteen times over the years.

 

Back when I played it the D-10-T was the best gun it had for instance.  Or you could use the 122mm with terrible DPM and accuracy.



Noo_Noo #15 Posted 14 February 2018 - 08:15 PM

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View PostGeno1isme, on 14 February 2018 - 01:22 PM, said:

Well, a few things to note regarding those graphs:

- "all time" is a lie actually as the graphs only start in late 2014, so you're missing three years of data

- for the T-44 WR has been almost constant from Aug 2014 till Summer 2016, can't really call fluctuations within 0.1% a "steady decline" in that epoch. Only after June 2016 it starts dropping significantly, which kinda matches the time when WG started to buff penetration across the board, rendering the armor advantage of the T-44 over its competitors pointless.

- the "flat" graph for the CDC is a common property of tanks introduced in/after 2014 that have no legacy data, as the graph then uses a completely different scaling: CDC scales from -20 to +60, T-44 from 49.6 to 50.4. Change the timeframe in the CDC graph to start in 2015 and it isn't so flat anymore. Always look at the actual numbers, not just the curves, they can be misleading.

- the listed WR is actually the overall global WR at that time, not the average WR at that time. So buffs/nerfs will not result in a sharp edge of the curve but constantly affect the following data (good example: Foch 155, massively overperformed before 2014, then got nerfed and the curve is still adjusting from that). So if you look at the curve of the Maus in 2017, the massive buffs in 9.17 caused a much larger change in average winrate than the indicated 0.75%

 

In summary, those curves are not trivial to interpret correctly, you really have to take context and actual numbers into account.

 

Er I dont agree with some of that. And just to get this thread back onto the real topic and away from my garbage game play. 

 

Firstly a decline is a decline and it starts around September 2015. yes the drop is small but it is there with a larger drop around Christmas 2016. So its falling  and has been for some time. There's no getting away from that. We can discuss why (the point of this thread) and how significant it is but the simple fact is it's been falling.

You are correct on scale for the CDC.If you zoom in that too is falling but prior to March 17 it had been rising. So its actually a bit up and down. The same zoom on the T44 just shows a downward trend with very little variation. 

 

yes I can see what you are saying about WR. A buff is not reflected as a step change as a players stats will only change gradually and the numbers use those figures and therefore also move more slowly. 






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