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Anatomy of winrate (WR) and amount of skill


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Gnomus #1 Posted 24 February 2018 - 04:44 PM

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There have been several measurements of ”skill” starting from WG’s Personal Rating (PR), Efficiency (EFF) and several iterations of WN, and possibly few more.

 

All of them have problem of rewarding certain types of measurable actions so they can be padded by playing in suitable style and they totally disregard actions that are beneficial to team, but do not show up in performance number. Like holding a flank, positioning your tank so that enemy need to expose themselves to your allies etc.

 

 

Winrate on the other hand shows what was your influence on battles. For example early damage has more influence than damage done in cleanup phase. Early kill can lead to snowball effect when mobbing up last enemies or getting a kill when enemy over runs your side last tanks has little meaning. It also rewards for all kind of non-measurable actions where you had influence on enemy (slowing them down, forcing them to disperse, spend time running after you). In this way WR is much better way of measuring players influence on battle than “artificial” numbers like WN.

 

Still winrate has two big problems

  1. In small number of battles it can be highly random and only stabilizes with lot of battles. After all battles are 15 vs 15 and if you get (un)lucky with teams you can see 10+ battles losing/winning streaks.
  2. It measures influence on battle, not necessary skill level of player. There are things beside skill that can have major influence on players winrate.

 

So how to pad/ruin your winrate?

 

  1. Play only good/OP tanks.
  • This can lead to 2-5% higher WR compared to averages and double that compared to bad tanks. This is pretty much easiest way to “pad” WR.
  • Free exp to new OP tanks so you get maximal amount of battles before they get nerfed 2-3 patches later and before most players learn how to counter those new monsters.
  • When you played tank also matters. Some tanks have gone several iterations from OP to UP to OP, like Foch 155 or Maus, so WR you can achieve depends a lot on when you played them. You can’t simply compare two players WR on same tanks if time those tanks were player different.

 

  1. Play only few tanks at the time and then play lot of battles with them. When concentrating only on few tanks you get to learn tanks abilities “by heart” and get much better understanding of it’s performance than playing 10-20 different tanks with differing gun dynamics, mobility, shell speeds etc. mixed up.

 

  1. Play only full up tanks and never spend time with stock tanks.
  • If you only play tanks through and not spend extra time on them, then stock grind can quite big part of your battle total. Exp to full up is often around 1/3 of exp needed for elite, and when stock you perform worse so you get less exp. Out of your battles it might be as much as 50% on not full up tank. This gets corrected if you play hundreds or thousands battles after eliting tank, but any battle on underperforming will reduce your WR slightly.
  • Different tanks suffer from this differently. Something like Rheinmetal-Borsig hardly suffers at all when stock (especially if you are one who would use 128mm gun anyway) while tank like ARL V39 is totally unplayable in full stock configuration.

 

  1. Play tanks that suit your play style and/or play in suitable style for a tank. If you play aggressive and rushing with paper TD it is not good for your WR. If you stay back and snipe with armored monster or dynamic MT it will not give you best WR. To get best possible WR your tank pick should match your play style.

 

  1. Platoon. Simple as that. With platoon you can bring in non-random players who are above average. Even for slightly below average players playing together, especially with voice chat, platoons allow performing much better than solo because you have friends you can trust and co-operate with. (Bl)unicum platoon on voice chat and picked tanks can have very big influence on WR.

 

 

  1. “Pay to Win”

 

  1. Use only experienced crew. If you can afford to use 100% crew or even better crew with one or two skills it will make you perform better. In best case you can train new crew as radio-operator or some other not so important crew member and then retrain him to more important positions once he has few skill points. Not to mention female crews and/or Berlin tank crews with their inbuilt brother I arms and one skill at 100% from the beginning.

 

  1. Use of premium shells. Not always, because in some cases normal shells do work better than premium (AP vs APCR/HEAT) but being able to use premium shells whenever they offer advantage. It is not just that you can pen some shots and do little more damage, but if premium shells allow you to win some 1 vs 1 situation it also keeps you alive so you can keep farming more damage and kills with normal shells later in the battle.

 

  1. Using premium consumables can give slight advantage. They can easily burn your credits, but if you have premium time and/or premium tanks you can handle credit loss better and get that slight advantage compared to players using only normal consumables.

 

  1.  Proper choice of equipment can give you meaningful advantage. Gun rammer can make you win 1 vs 1 situations or allow exchange of shots on good ratio. This is pretty big advantage compared to someone who doesn’t have any equipment (new players who don’t have few million credits lying around) or who need to use removable equipment like binoculars, camo net and repair box because they do not have gold to remove equipment nor credits to destroy so expensive equipment.

 

  1. Camo can give you slight advantage. Not necessary on all tanks, but ones using camo and spotting to their advantage can benefit from permanent or temporary camo.

 

  1. Special equipment you can get with bonds and directives available only with bonds. Both of them allow you to perform little better than players without special equipment or without directives.

 

Advantage you get from single point might not be that big, but when you start stacking them all it will have impact on your influence in battle.

 

 

  1. Play style.
  • Do you play for maximal performance per battle or do you just want things to progress. If you are short of play time, premium time, or just grinding through annoying tank it might be better to go in blaze of glory and get something done than try to prolong battle in hope of getting win in rare cases.
  • Do you play for the team victory or personal performance? There are some players who get unicum level WN (and damage and kills), but their WR is lacking behind on green levels. Same way there are some players who are getting green level WN, but are getting much higher WR. Getting good WN and being good doesn’t necessary mean player is doing his best for the victory of the team if he is more interested in personal performance.  
  • Are you playing for marks on barrel or do you play for the missions? Missions can make people do really strange things, like exposing themselves to get a ram kill instead of taking a safe and sure kill. If you play for mark son barrel then you are more interested on farming damage than taking hits for the tam. In general missions can make you play in pretty strange and unoptimal way.

 

  1. Play time. Which week days you play and which time of day? There’s plenty of talk about “weekend warriors” and how horrible game play will be on 3x or 5x events. Not sure which days or times would be best for your WR, but it would be logical expect little bit different opponents and meta depending on time of day and week/weekend.

 

  1. Know all tanks very well. Know their weak points, mobility and gun performance. This is part of skill and allows you do well. If you want to optimize performance stay tuned to all changes and try things out on public test server. When you get knowledge out of game data, announcement, forums/videos or from test server it saves your performance on live server when you don’t need to learn by mistake.

 

  1. Same for the maps. Keep up to date for map changes and learn them before playing on live server or shortly after so you don’t need to learn by mistake on real battles. If necessary visit maps on training room and check positions and routes.

 

  1. Do not play tired, drunk or when on tilt. Play only when being alert and feeling like it. That will allow you to perform the best you can.

 

  1. Mods usage. Your performance will change according to mods you use, or not use at all. Even something like XVM allows you to predict enemy and own team performance better letting you win little more. Clown mods etc. all let you move some of burden of play to mods instead of your head letting you perform slightly more. Not to mention black mods like aiming bots etc. that can give good advantage (and get your account permabanned). Even “white mods” that are allowed can have influence on your performance.

 

  1. Play on good computer with good connection. On low graphical settings terrain form doesn’t necessary match “reality” and in fast situations having opponent drawn half a second earlier might be difference between killing or being killed. It really does matter.

 

  1. Did I miss something?

 

Winrate tells a lot about player quality and skills, but it also can be “padded”.  It doesn’t mean that 45% WR player could suddenly do well if he got OP tank, and all the bells and whistles credits and gold can buy, but he might get to 48%. Same way 60% WR player going with stock tank with bad crews and no premium shells is not going to become bad, but he might drop to 55% (or even more).

 

What do you think, how much difference there could be depending on player options?

 

I think it might be quite a lot when going from playing only good/OP tanks in full up setup, good crew, fully equipped and plenty of premium shells and consumables compared to similar player playing mediocre tank from stock with decent crew and only limited equipment and consumables. This is very well visible with rerolls or reseted accounts where player only plays good/OP premiums and free-exped good tanks with all the advantages instead of wading through all the mediocre and bad tanks with suboptimal crew and equipments.  

 



VsUK #2 Posted 24 February 2018 - 05:16 PM

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I've gone up against purple players & won. Also on the other hand, gone up against red players & lost. 
Win rate is effected by the team. No amount of premium ammo will stop you losing if your team fall like flies. But, a platoon of 3 with premium shells, working together, can make the difference. 

I play for the pure enjoyment of it. I honestly care not about my win rate, especially my average damage per battle is above average & better than some who have a much higher win rate then me. Cowards can win a game who sit in a bush & spot for the entire game. Doesn't make them any better a player. 

K_A #3 Posted 24 February 2018 - 05:24 PM

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tl;dr

git gud and stop sucking


Edited by K_A, 24 February 2018 - 05:24 PM.


VsUK #4 Posted 24 February 2018 - 05:39 PM

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View PostK_A, on 24 February 2018 - 04:24 PM, said:

tl;dr

git gud and stop sucking

 

"Get" "Better". *edit
Also, Sucking is a form of Americanism. Shame on you!


Edited by Jbnn, 28 February 2018 - 09:58 AM.
This post has been edited by the moderation team due to inappropriate remarks.


OneSock #5 Posted 24 February 2018 - 05:46 PM

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I disagree with 2.

 

I rarely ever play a tank more than twice a day. If i can't get a win on 2nd try I move to next tank.

 

Never get sucked into "just 1 more try" mentality because soon enough the MM will have you on your 7th straight loss and you are playing tilt. You need to make a conscious break from losing streaks. 

 

Edit: I only break this rule for 3x or 5x or specials bonus events, in which case it might be worth burning some winrate for the bonus.


Edited by OneSock, 24 February 2018 - 05:47 PM.


Balc0ra #6 Posted 24 February 2018 - 05:47 PM

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View PostGnomus, on 24 February 2018 - 04:44 PM, said:

There have been several measurements of ”skill” starting from WG’s Personal Rating (PR), Efficiency (EFF)

 

 

Eff could be farmed by capping alone. Not by winning. My Eff was silly low vs even most sub 50% back then. As I never did go for cap vs reset. PR can be padded by WR, but no one really uses that as a serious measurement anyway.

 

Then again a broken clock is still right twice a day as they say. I've had stock grinds with a 100% WR after 20 games, even tho I did little due to the gun or mobility etc vs other tanks. Or even died early to contribute with anything. Even had sub 30% WR tanks after 40+ games with several aces on losses that were not stock from the start. Then I've had grinds like the ISU-152. That had a 41% WR after over a 100 games. Then the BL-10 was slapped on it. And it went to 54% by the time I elited it.

 

Sure stock grinds can be affected on WR. Or even playing an OP tank. But how much that drags down or helps a player with 45% average WR vs one with 55% or even 60% is still huge. As some still manages to contribute with a stock ARL V39, vs a bad player that sits at the back and do nothing until 90% of the team is dead, because "I'm stock".


Edited by Balc0ra, 24 February 2018 - 05:48 PM.


vasilinhorulezz #7 Posted 24 February 2018 - 06:59 PM

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You forgot to add, don't buy e-bay accounts.

WindSplitter1 #8 Posted 24 February 2018 - 07:00 PM

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What an interesting read. As an amateur writer I love well-written articles. Too bad we don't have some sort of forumites blog. This would well be worth of a post.

Shivva #9 Posted 24 February 2018 - 07:04 PM

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View PostGnomus, on 24 February 2018 - 03:44 PM, said:

I bought an account and now I've played some I'm absolutely trashing it's stats so I'm looking for some way to declare that I am actually the bestest.
 

 

 

Time to buy another one I think.

Jigabachi #10 Posted 24 February 2018 - 07:08 PM

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TL;DR: Whatever single stat you take - it's not enough to reliably judge and compare. But the solution can't be more simple: Take a look at all the other stats to get a rough overview about a players skill and overall contribution. They aren't there for no reason.



soul3ater #11 Posted 24 February 2018 - 07:09 PM

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I don't think you can only look at one parameter when it comes to assessing someone's stats, bit of everything should be there. for example, a person like me who always plays solo I can't always get the win but I can try my best by doing dmg/assist to help turn the battle.

 

 



Long_Range_Sniper #12 Posted 24 February 2018 - 07:14 PM

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View PostGnomus, on 24 February 2018 - 03:44 PM, said:

  1. Did I miss something?

 

Probably the single biggest thing that you can't buy a mod to do for you. It can't be aimbotted, cheated, or hacked, and it seems that no matter what else someone might do to their tank it is the single largest contributor to winrate.

 

Spoiler

 

This skill can be improved by understanding the meta. But in essence you're asking your brain to do something else on top of driving your tank. Not everyone has this ability no matter how skilled you are in other areas, or how much you improve your tanks.



Slyspy #13 Posted 24 February 2018 - 07:27 PM

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View PostGnomus, on 24 February 2018 - 04:44 PM, said:

Still winrate has two big problems

  1. In small number of battles it can be highly random and only stabilizes with lot of battles. After all battles are 15 vs 15 and if you get (un)lucky with teams you can see 10+ battles losing/winning streaks.
  2. It measures influence on battle, not necessary skill level of player. There are things beside skill that can have major influence on players winrate.

 

 

 

Yes, WR is an indicator of influence on the results you receive. But it must be considered in context - that influence is relative to the environment in which it has been gained. If someone plays virtually nothing but the T67 at tier five and so has a high WR. Does this represent his skill level? Of course it does, in the environment in which he tends to play. He will win more because he has chosen the right tool for the job and demonstrated that he is a better player than his follow players at that tier. If he plays the T67 so much that it influences his overall WR, in particular over thousands of games, then many will consider it stat padding. But what of it? If he most often plays the T67 then you will probably meet that player at tier five anyway, which is his home turf.



HeidenSieker #14 Posted 24 February 2018 - 07:31 PM

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View PostVsUK, on 24 February 2018 - 05:39 PM, said:

Also, Sucking is a form of Americanism. Shame on you!

 

It's "an Americanism", not "a form of Americanism". HTH. :)

Procjon #15 Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:47 PM

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View PostGnomus, on 24 February 2018 - 03:44 PM, said:

There have been several measurements of ”skill” starting from WG’s Personal Rating (PR), Efficiency (EFF) and several iterations of WN, and possibly few more.

 

..........................................

 

A very nice thread especially for newbies and even more important to read for noobs.

 

New updates with new tanks ruin balance not only in tanks - compared to older tanks - but in WR as well. New tank pops up and i see players of 3k personal score doing 4k damage and 3k blocked damage basically pressing Forward and keep clicking Fire. Of course they are dead pretty fast when they approach above average player but majority of the WOT base is below average so driving power creep tank makes a difference in WR while hiding the real level of skills of 3k personal score player.

 

hf

 


Edited by Procjon, 24 February 2018 - 08:55 PM.


Jotneblod #16 Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:03 PM

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View PostVsUK, on 24 February 2018 - 05:16 PM, said:

I've gone up against purple players & won.

 

No you haven't. Put the bottle away already.

TungstenHitman #17 Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:13 PM

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View PostJotneblod, on 24 February 2018 - 08:03 PM, said:

 

No you haven't. Put the bottle away already.

 

I think he gets confused by those times when it's 5 vs 1 and he just happens to be the ignored tomato which delivers the killer shot on a 5% hp purple player that isn't even looking at him, then thinks it was all his "skill" that defeated the purple. Reality isn't for everyone of course, each to their own :)

Shivva #18 Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:15 PM

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View PostTungstenHitman, on 24 February 2018 - 08:13 PM, said:

 

I think he gets confused by those times when it's 5 vs 1 and he just happens to be the ignored tomato which delivers the killer shot on a 5% hp purple player that isn't even looking at him, then thinks it was all his "skill" that defeated the purple. Reality isn't for everyone of course, each to their own :)

 

Careful now, he'll ban you from the forum..... ;)

RaxipIx #19 Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:22 PM

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View PostLong_Range_Sniper, on 24 February 2018 - 07:14 PM, said:

 

Probably the single biggest thing that you can't buy a mod to do for you. It can't be aimbotted, cheated, or hacked, and it seems that no matter what else someone might do to their tank it is the single largest contributor to winrate.

 

Spoiler

 

This skill can be improved by understanding the meta. But in essence you're asking your brain to do something else on top of driving your tank. Not everyone has this ability no matter how skilled you are in other areas, or how much you improve your tanks.

 

This!

Jotneblod #20 Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:31 PM

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The best way to measure a player's skill level is to combine different metrics and the tanks he plays. If a player has 65% win rate with a tank as well as 4k WN8 he's just very good with it. Of course if the player only has such stats with tier 4-5 tanks and has an average win rate of 52% with his high tier tanks he is not a good player but a "T67 padder". Looking blindly at one metric is always going to be flawed because padding is much easier with only 1-2 focal points.

 

Taking tank types, roles and history into account is pretty important as well. As you said that the effective power level of a tank varies and many tanks that used to be weak have been buffed and many previously overpowered tanks have ridiculously high damage requirements for how bad the tanks are nowadays, such as Object 268 or Foch 155.

 

Certain tanks, most notably light tanks aren't designated damage dealers which screws over any metric. I think win rate even with its flaws is the most accurate metric for a light tank because padding WN8 and damage based metrics is ridiculously easy with the light tanks that used to have scout matchmaking. My AMX 13 57 GF gives 4500 WN8 for 1.5k damage per game. My DPG with it since the buff is probably around 1.8-1.9k which would probably give me well over 5000 WN8 but I played over half of my games with it when it still had scout matchmaking.

 

It's the same with like Type 64 - dealing 1k damage nets you 3.1k WN8 because the requirements used to be much lower when it had scout matchmaking and couldn't carry VStabs. For some perspective if you deal 1k damage with a Rudy you end up with roughly 2.2k WN8. The players who buy these older light tanks now who never played a game with them with the scout matchmaking will have insane numbers with tanks like this and such tanks shouldn't be regarded very highly.

 

A player who wants to pad will be able to do so, this is just a cold fact and rerolls are a good example of this. They systematically avoid playing stock tanks with bad crews and steer away from tanks that don't yield good WN8. They play the current "flavor of the month" tank and they do their crew training in other game modes to "not ruin" their stats. They also spend a ton of money on converting free XP to ensure they don't play any "meh" tanks and that they always have all the modules. While I know a few rerolls that I like and many of them are very good at the game, I personally find this kind of behavior quite sad. It's just a boobjob where a lot of effort and resources are being put into gaining an "edge" by basically playing with a different set of rules. It's self-deception and does not actually make the player any better. In the end if you have good enough recent stats nobody cares about your overalls.

 

Combining WN8, win rate and looking specifically which tanks the player plays generally gives you a very accurate picture. If this player does well on these fronts and also consistently 3-marks high tier tanks without assist padding you have a very good player on your hands. But there's no one metric that gives you the absolute truth. 


Edited by Jotneblod, 24 February 2018 - 09:34 PM.





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