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Progetto marathon - theorycrafting


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VarzA #1 Posted 11 April 2018 - 06:03 PM

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FINAL POST - is it worth it ?

I will avoid talking of t10's because this marathon requires you not to have just t10's but the right t10's and the right skills (something most players don't have).

 

So let's talk xp, it is base combat xp, without any modifiers applied to it (no boosters, no premium account).

Over a period of 14d (actually more like 14.5d because it ends mid-day Friday 27th and few ppl play mornings), you have to complete 10 stages, each of which will deduct 10% off the cost of the Progetto 46 and garage.

Overall xp cost is 312k xp. Considering the use of premium account and boosters, for the average player this is the equivalent of grinding a T10 from start to finish.

 

Stages are as follows, with important bonuses mentioned.

S1 = 5k xp

S2 = 7k xp

S3 = 15k xp (some free xp boosters)

--

S4 = 30k xp (some equipment, 1d of premium)

--

S5 = 35k xp (some combat xp boosters, the 50% variety)

S6 = 35k xp (some creds, 10x credit xp boosters, 50% for 2h)

--

S7 = 40k xp (some camo, to be used only on t8 premium or t10)

S8 = 45k xp (1d premium, creds, credit 50% boosters for 2hs and some combat xp boosters)

S9 = 50k xp (1d premium, creds, credit 50% boosters for 2hs and some combat xp boosters)

S10 = 50k xp (progetto 46 + garage slot and probably 100% crew)

 

The separation between is for later, let's talk xp. :)

Your average player, grinding, on average, gets about 5k combat xp / h. If you go full on tryhard, and you use the right tiers (6/8 tiers), with tanks that die fast (meds with good range, scouts), you can probably push more, but the average player will do about 5-6k / h.

At 312k xp, that means 54hs (at 6k / h), in 14 evenings.

That means roughly 3.85hs/ evening, let's make it a nice round 4hs/ evening.

As games are not always the same, and evenings are not always the same, and you might lose 1-2d with useless stuff (like talking with wife, family and kids), you are looking at 6-7hs of grinding / day, when you can grind.

 

Now this is where the separation i mentioned earlier comes into play.

-> S1-3 basically means 27k xp, and is the equivalent of a 30% coupon, applicable only to this unique bundle.

-> S4 makes a jump, to 30k xp, for the more dedicated player and the trend continues up to about S6.

Together, S4-6 make about 100k xp. S6 even has a nice goal, in the form of the credit boosters (which are worth a lot, about 20hs of super-premium time if you bundle them up with regular premium time and you run t8 premiums). If you reached this point, you have a 60% discount, but not on the tank (or tokens), on the bundle.

-> S7 has some camo, but let's be serious, if you reached S7, you are going up to S8, what's another 45k xp on top of the already farmed 40k xp and S8 also comes with credit boosters. 95k xp for these 2.

-> S9 has credit boosters, S10 has the tank, and together they require 100k xp.

 

So who is this event aimed at ?

If you have say 1-2hs of gametime per evening, not all week-days as well, you will at most get like 20hs of grind time, which means 100k xp.

This means you get to about S5-6, you might rush for S6 because of the boosters, you might not. This means a 60% coupon.

if you are not that good of a player, and have even less time, like 10hs, you are looking at most at S3-4, which means a 30-40% coupon.

if you have a ton of free time, or are one of the few lucky enough to have a ton of t10's (at which point you are mostly a semi-inactive player, rarely finding the need to login), this grind might make you energized enough to login, play .... spend. :)

 

I think this event is designed to get most players, to about S4, at which point they might not say PASS, to a 40% coupon .... in contrast to a 20% coupon.

Those with some time, and skill, might get 60% coupon, and if they buy, at least they are engaged into the game, while if they don't .... nothing big was lost.

Whales will buy it anyway, because why not.

And the no-lifers are not that many in the grand scheme of things.

 

All in all, i think we need to remember that in life .... there are no free lunches. :)

It will be interesting to see the price of the bundle, but most likely it will be pumped up to 15k gold value.

 

For an estimate in # of hours this might take, here.

For the other option, of going 'skill' and t10's, here is an estimate of the number of battles and what you need to do.

 

PS: Feel free to tell me that i'm crazy below this post.

 

LE: Corrected mistakes pointed out by PointZero.


Edited by VarzA, 13 April 2018 - 02:50 PM.


XxKuzkina_MatxX #2 Posted 11 April 2018 - 06:12 PM

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You are not crazy :)

 

Thanks for the useful numbers.



VarzA #3 Posted 11 April 2018 - 06:52 PM

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Looks like on RU server, the cheapest bundle is 37 euros (comes with some camo as well).

If the deducation is applicable to such a bundle, it's worth it to go for S5-6, and then buy it.

Hopefully this 'bundle' will also be available on the EU server.

 

The question that remains is .... is it a good credit maker ?



K_A #4 Posted 11 April 2018 - 07:00 PM

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If I understood the news text completely, the discount will only be applicable to the bundle that gives all the rewards along with the tank itself, so when you buy the bundle it automatically finishes all of the stages and gives out the rewards. That's sure to inflate the bundle price a bit, seeing as the rewards add up to a fair bit of stuff. 

XxKuzkina_MatxX #5 Posted 11 April 2018 - 07:02 PM

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View PostVarzA, on 11 April 2018 - 07:52 PM, said:

The question that remains is .... is it a good credit maker ?

 

If you use food and shoot a few APCR clips for the tough enemies then no, it is average at best in making credits.

VarzA #6 Posted 11 April 2018 - 07:07 PM

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View PostK_A, on 11 April 2018 - 07:00 PM, said:

If I understood the news text completely, the discount will only be applicable to the bundle that gives all the rewards along with the tank itself, so when you buy the bundle it automatically finishes all of the stages and gives out the rewards. That's sure to inflate the bundle price a bit, seeing as the rewards add up to a fair bit of stuff. 

 

That would suck tbh, because they would count those useless boosters, or the other boosters as value.

I pesonally understood it to meant that the rewards for individual stages were extra, and only if you got it through the game.

 

View PostXxKuzkina_MatxX, on 11 April 2018 - 07:02 PM, said:

 

If you use food and shoot a few APCR clips for the tough enemies then no, it is average at best in making credits.

 

212 pen with that kind of gun handling, i don't think you need food.

Unfortunately i have yet to see a streamer's average game (2k damage, no premium consumables, only fired standard ammo).

 

K_A .... you are right i think.

 

Block Quote

 IMPORTANT NOTE: Purchasing the bundle gives you the full pack of rewards and automatically checks all event battle missions as completed. So you won’t be able to access them once you have the bundle.

 

 


 

Edited by NickMustaine, 12 April 2018 - 10:43 AM.


Tankyouverymuch2 #7 Posted 11 April 2018 - 07:10 PM

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Some of the tier 10 tanks I have are the Obj. 260 and the T110E3. I'm wondering if I'll be able to do the damage/xp missions with the 260, and the blocking missions with the E3... Any tips, guys?

Strappster #8 Posted 11 April 2018 - 07:16 PM

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View PostVarzA, on 11 April 2018 - 05:52 PM, said:

The question that remains is .... is it a good credit maker ?

 

Looking at the results on the RU wotreplays site, it seems fairly good. 2.5k damage, 2k assist, 5 kills = 66.5k credits gross on a standard account, for example.



VarzA #9 Posted 11 April 2018 - 07:27 PM

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Ok, gonna go on the assumption that the price of 53quid that Strappster quoted in another thread is the right ballpark figure for the tank + bundle (i think it will be slightly higher tbh).

Also, that once you buy the bundle (either through grind or through play), you get ALL the stages rewards.

 

312k xp overall

S1 = 1.55% of XP // 5k xp ~ 1h

S2 = 2.17% of XP // 7k xp ~ 1.4h

S3 = 4.66% of XP // 15k xp ~ 3h

S4 = 9.31% of XP // 30k xp ~ 6h

S5 = 10.87% of XP // 35k xp ~ 7h

S6 = 10.87% of XP // 35k xp ~ 7h

S7 = 12.42% of XP // 40k xp ~ 8h

S8 = 13.97% of XP // 45k xp ~ 9h

S9 = 15.5% of XP // 50k xp ~ 10h

S10 = 15.5% of XP // 50k xp ~ 10h

It's all rounded, so i doubt they will add to a perfect 100%.

Hours calculated at 5k xp / h, around 76.4hs overall.

Assuming 53 quid value of bundle (will probably be higher since EU bleed cash), that means 5.3 quid / stage.

 

if you go up to S5, you reduce value of bundle by 50%, and it will take you 18.4hs to reduce about 27 quid.

After S6, you seem to get reduced benefits, as you reduce by the same amount per stage but it takes you increasingly longer times.

So the question is, how much time do you have on your hands, and how good are you, how good are the tanks you have ?

 

PS: One way to look at this is that for the average guy, through this event, you are getting a coupon, applied to 1 specific thing, where you get the honor of buying a 30 quid tank, for 30 quid ..... but you get some extra stuff too. :)


Edited by VarzA, 12 April 2018 - 08:01 AM.


jdc302 #10 Posted 11 April 2018 - 07:33 PM

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if this is indeed what the missions will be, they look a lot more doable then the missions for the t44-100. It will still be hard but at least you don't have to have tanks of every nation. 

VarzA #11 Posted 11 April 2018 - 07:37 PM

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Yeah, but you are still going to need the right tanks.

 

Basically, overperformers, tanks that do well regardless of matches and maps.

Tanks that won't get to live for very long, ideally.

 

Looking at the amount of hs, for me at least, it's not worth it if i can't get to at leas S5-6.

I can probably do S4 fast, and with my limited time after the 16th .... maybe i can finish S5 and S6.

With S5 you can probably achieve parity between the price of the tank+garage slot and the price of the bundle (you get the bundle for the price of the tank+garage).

S6 will probably get you a little advantage.

 

So i guess for a lot of ppl, the rational question will be .... do i need the Progetto 46 ?


Edited by VarzA, 11 April 2018 - 07:39 PM.


RaxipIx #12 Posted 11 April 2018 - 07:58 PM

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Anyone know if the missions are reset daily or you can grind them out during the whole event? If they are daily not even going to bother with it, getting 50 k base xp in a day is no joke.

 

I guess i'll play along in my tier 7 LT's see how it goes, and depending how far  i get i'll see what tokens i buy, if any.



lord_chipmonk #13 Posted 11 April 2018 - 07:58 PM

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View Postjdc302, on 11 April 2018 - 07:33 PM, said:

if this is indeed what the missions will be, they look a lot more doable then the missions for the t44-100. It will still be hard but at least you don't have to have tanks of every nation. 

 

You can see the missions in the garage right now. The flip side is that you only get 2 weeks for this I believe rather than the month that marathons usually give you. 
 

View PostRaxipIx, on 11 April 2018 - 07:58 PM, said:

Anyone know if the missions are reset daily or you can grind them out during the whole event? If they are daily not even going to bother with it, getting 50 k base xp in a day is no joke.

 

I guess i'll play along in my tier 7 LT's see how it goes, and depending how far  i get i'll see what tokens i buy, if any.

 

The mission sin the garage don't mention that they reset. Make of that what you will.
 

VarzA #14 Posted 11 April 2018 - 08:00 PM

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View PostRaxipIx, on 11 April 2018 - 07:58 PM, said:

Anyone know if the missions are reset daily or you can grind them out during the whole event? If they are daily not even going to bother with it, getting 50 k base xp in a day is no joke.

 

I guess i'll play along in my tier 7 LT's see how it goes, and depending how far  i get i'll see what tokens i buy, if any.

 

I think they are just stages, not missions, and you go on until you complete as much as possible.

 



RaxipIx #15 Posted 11 April 2018 - 08:02 PM

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View PostVarzA, on 11 April 2018 - 08:00 PM, said:

 

I think they are just stages, not missions, and you go on until you complete as much as possible.

 

 

If this is the case i'm pretty confident i can get the tank just by playing normally as i do, playing my tanks that i love and i perform well in sticking to tier  6-7-8 to max out my base exp.

PointZero #16 Posted 11 April 2018 - 08:26 PM

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View PostVarzA, on 11 April 2018 - 08:03 PM, said:

Over a period of 14d (actually more like 13.5d because it ends mid-day Friday 27th and few ppl play mornings), you have to complete 10 stages, each of which will deduct 10% off the cost of the Progetto 46 and garage.

 

Friday 13th noon - sat - sun - mon - tue - wed - thu - fri - sat - sun - mon - tue - wed - thu - Friday 27th noon = 15 days, 14,5 if you leave out the last friday morning.

 

View PostVarzA, on 11 April 2018 - 08:03 PM, said:

Overall xp cost is 322k xp.

 

5+7+15+30+35+35+40+45+50+50 = 312 k experience overall.

 

View PostVarzA, on 11 April 2018 - 08:03 PM, said:

Your average player, grinding, on average, gets about 5k combat xp / h. If you go full on tryhard, and you use the right tiers (6/8 tiers), with tanks that die fast (meds with good range, scouts), you can probably push more, but the average player will do about 5-6k / h.

 

Tanks that die fast generally don't get much xp, even less if your team ends up losing. Games that reward you a good amount of base xp usually tend to last longer and still might end up giving you just 500-600xp if you fail to grab any epic medals and your team manages to lose the game. Players having losing streaks will have a tough time reaching 5-6k / h pace.



discontinued #17 Posted 11 April 2018 - 08:34 PM

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View PostVarzA, on 11 April 2018 - 05:03 PM, said:

I will avoid talking of t10's because this marathon requires you not to have just t10's but the right t10's and the right skills (something most players don't have).

 

So let's talk xp, it is base combat xp, without any modifiers applied to it (no boosters, no premium account).

Over a period of 14d (actually more like 13.5d because it ends mid-day Friday 27th and few ppl play mornings), you have to complete 10 stages, each of which will deduct 10% off the cost of the Progetto 46 and garage.

Overall xp cost is 322k xp. Considering the use of premium account and boosters, for the average player this is the equivalent of grinding a T10 from start to finish.

 

Stages are as follows, with important bonuses mentioned.

S1 = 5k xp

S2 = 7k xp

S3 = 15k xp (some free xp boosters)

--

S4 = 30k xp (some equipment, 1d of premium)

--

S5 = 35k xp (some combat xp boosters, the 50% variety)

S6 = 35k xp (some creds, 10x credit xp boosters, 50% for 2h)

--

S7 = 40k xp (some camo, to be used only on t8 premium or t10)

S8 = 45k xp (1d premium, creds, credit 50% boosters for 2hs and some combat xp boosters)

S9 = 50k xp (1d premium, creds, credit 50% boosters for 2hs and some combat xp boosters)

S10 = 50k xp (progetto 46 + garage slot and probably 100% crew)

 

The separation between is for later, let's talk xp. :)

Your average player, grinding, on average, gets about 5k combat xp / h. If you go full on tryhard, and you use the right tiers (6/8 tiers), with tanks that die fast (meds with good range, scouts), you can probably push more, but the average player will do about 5-6k / h.

At 322k xp, that means 54hs (at 6k / h), in 14 evenings.

That means roughly 3.85hs/ evening, let's make it a nice round 4hs/ evening.

As games are not always the same, and evenings are not always the same, and you might lose 1-2d with useless stuff (like talking with wife, family and kids), you are looking at 6-7hs of grinding / day, when you can grind.

 

Now this is where the separation i mentioned earlier comes into play.

-> S1-3 basically means 27k xp, and is the equivalent of a 30% coupon, applicable only to this unique bundle.

-> S4 makes a jump, to 30k xp, for the more dedicated player and the trend continues up to about S6.

Together, S4-6 make about 100k xp. S6 even has a nice goal, in the form of the credit boosters (which are worth a lot, about 20hs of super-premium time if you bundle them up with regular premium time and you run t8 premiums). If you reached this point, you have a 60% discount, but not on the tank (or tokens), on the bundle.

-> S7 has some camo, but let's be serious, if you reached S7, you are going up to S8, what's another 45k xp on top of the already farmed 40k xp and S8 also comes with credit boosters. 95k xp for these 2.

-> S9 has credit boosters, S10 has the tank, and together they require 100k xp.

 

So who is this event aimed at ?

If you have say 1-2hs of gametime per evening, not all week-days as well, you will at most get like 20hs of grind time, which means 100k xp.

This means you get to about S5-6, you might rush for S6 because of the boosters, you might not. This means a 60% coupon.

if you are not that good of a player, and have even less time, like 10hs, you are looking at most at S3-4, which means a 30-40% coupon.

if you have a ton of free time, or are one of the few lucky enough to have a ton of t10's (at which point you are mostly a semi-inactive player, rarely finding the need to login), this grind might make you energized enough to login, play .... spend. :)

 

I think this event is designed to get most players, to about S4, at which point they might not say PASS, to a 40% coupon .... in contrast to a 20% coupon.

Those with some time, and skill, might get 60% coupon, and if they buy, at least they are engaged into the game, while if they don't .... nothing big was lost.

Whales will buy it anyway, because why not.

And the no-lifers are not that many in the grand scheme of things.

 

All in all, i think we need to remember that in life .... there are no free lunches. :)

It will be interesting to see the price of the bundle, but most likely it will be pumped up to 15k gold value.

 

PS: Feel free to tell me that i'm crazy below this post.

 

yeah it just does not seem worth it in the long run as a tier 8 med it will almost certainly be bad..well its mm will

VarzA #18 Posted 11 April 2018 - 09:25 PM

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View PostPointZero, on 11 April 2018 - 08:26 PM, said:

 

Friday 13th noon - sat - sun - mon - tue - wed - thu - fri - sat - sun - mon - tue - wed - thu - Friday 27th noon = 15 days, 14,5 if you leave out the last friday morning.

Yeah, i misscalculated for some reason. I'll edit it.

 

 

5+7+15+30+35+35+40+45+50+50 = 312 k experience overall.

Thanks for the heads up.

 

Tanks that die fast generally don't get much xp, even less if your team ends up losing. Games that reward you a good amount of base xp usually tend to last longer and still might end up giving you just 500-600xp if you fail to grab any epic medals and your team manages to lose the game. Players having losing streaks will have a tough time reaching 5-6k / h pace.

Tbh, i've been managing to reach that pace, in best situations, but yeah, it was semi-optimistic.

Answered in bold, i probably won't be going for it because at 80hs to complete it and 20-30hs even to get to stage 4-5, considering how the event is designed to basically sell you a tank with extra's for the price of a regular tank .... i just don't have the time.

This thread was also as a way to assess weather it was worth wasting my time pursuing this .... if i had 2 semi-free weeks i would go for it, but at this rate, if you want to just get it 'for free', you are looking at 40hs / week, which is basically ... a job.

30euros (ballpark figure price of 60 euros / bundle) for 40hs .... makes you value yourself at .75 euros / hour.

Even if you want it for 80% off, you need to put in an easy 60hs or so .... and if you go for half off by reaching Stage 5, you literally ask yourself ... 'do i need this ?'.

 

I live in a poor country, but not that poor that i need to 'earn' non-transferrable virtual goods at .75 euros / h. :P

 

PS: The T25 Pilot event was better, cheaper tank overall and at least you got gold if you bought extra tokens which is a currency with more than 1 uses (in WOT).



On top of all this, this will be a trainer for a nation's crews ... eventually it will be added to the tech tree shop, or it will be put on sale more often in the Premium Shop.
 

Edited by NickMustaine, 12 April 2018 - 10:45 AM.


HaZardeur #19 Posted 11 April 2018 - 09:45 PM

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View PostRaxipIx, on 11 April 2018 - 08:02 PM, said:

 

If this is the case i'm pretty confident i can get the tank just by playing normally as i do, playing my tanks that i love and i perform well in sticking to tier  6-7-8 to max out my base exp.

 

Its gonna be hard ( time wise ) but I ease the pain with playing just Panther/M10, Scorpion G & Ravioli which have a combined average of 888 XP/ 312000XP = 351 battles/14 days = 25 battles/day

Strappster #20 Posted 11 April 2018 - 09:49 PM

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Yeah but free thing is free. :great:

 

To answer a question from earlier, I certainly don't need another tier 8 premium but I'm going to be playing anyway so I might as well see how it goes. If I get a free tank that's great, if not at least I'll get some other stuff. It's all good. 






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