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Cycles... Cycles...

Win cycles

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Nerumancer #1 Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:29 AM

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So for the past year I have been keeping track of my game sessions just to keep an eye out for how things are going and to try to find what makes me win or loose. But I found one strange thing. Wins and looses always come in cycles and never in an evenly distributed set. That is about 5-9 game sessions of about 55-60% wins are followed by 2-4 of about 40%. Sometimes the wins are longer (12-16) but then the losses are evenly longer (5-10). Sometimes the wins are greater (about 60-65%) but hen the losses are greater (30-40%). However my average are steadily climbing so I don't complain. The cycles don't seem to be connected to time. If I'm in a loss cycle I can't avoid it by not playing in a week. It's more or less inevitable. I haven't recorded 10 straight sessions with an average around my win rate (52%)

 

So my question is if anyone else is experiencing the same cycles? It has been going on for about a year at least and if i'm looking at noobmeter it seems to have been like this in the past as well (albeit with longer cycles).



Spurtung #2 Posted 02 May 2018 - 01:08 AM

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Fascinating.

 

I voted 'yes'.



OIias_of_Sunhillow #3 Posted 02 May 2018 - 01:19 AM

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I blame the moon.

IncandescentGerbil #4 Posted 02 May 2018 - 01:23 AM

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Some sessions I am more up for it than others. Last night I was going through the motions to the extent I basically gave up mid game and had a sandwich. Not surpisingly I lost about two thirds of those games. So yes, it goes in cycles for me, but that is as much down to my relative focus as anything. I'm fine with it. Not caring about WN8 is liberating.

Strappster #5 Posted 02 May 2018 - 01:26 AM

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View PostNerumancer, on 01 May 2018 - 11:29 PM, said:

Wins and looses always come in cycles and never in an evenly distributed set.

 

If by that you mean the sequences of the results you're getting are pretty much random then yes, I experience that too. If you mean something else then no, I probably don't experience that. One correlation I can confirm is that when I do my utmost to win it tends to mean I'll have a better game than the ones where I don't. Probably because ghosts or something.



DeBanus #6 Posted 02 May 2018 - 04:19 AM

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World of Tanks is by far, the most RNG based game I ever played in my life. 

The value and effect of own personal skill and knowledge of the game is completly underrated due to the broken Matchmaker, RNG and overpowerd (russian) tanks.

 

Wargaming is just a money grabbing company with only Graphic Developers in their team. 



bangash #7 Posted 02 May 2018 - 06:51 AM

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Ok let me share my experience about win-lose system. I will give example of my win-lose ratio by 0-30. From the last 400-500 battles i am stuck in 0-30 ratio, this is target to reach 0 but unfortunately MM force me to go beyond 30 and last night i cross that 30 barrier by continuous losing. First because of tank marathon and now normal MM. So i lost almost 30 battles even after wining. I hope its not confusing for you.

gunslingerXXX #8 Posted 02 May 2018 - 07:02 AM

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View PostNerumancer, on 02 May 2018 - 12:29 AM, said:

So for the past year I have been keeping track of my game sessions just to keep an eye out for how things are going and to try to find what makes me win or loose. But I found one strange thing. Wins and looses always come in cycles and never in an evenly distributed set. That is about 5-9 game sessions of about 55-60% wins are followed by 2-4 of about 40%. Sometimes the wins are longer (12-16) but then the losses are evenly longer (5-10). Sometimes the wins are greater (about 60-65%) but hen the losses are greater (30-40%). However my average are steadily climbing so I don't complain. The cycles don't seem to be connected to time. If I'm in a loss cycle I can't avoid it by not playing in a week. It's more or less inevitable. I haven't recorded 10 straight sessions with an average around my win rate (52%)

 

So my question is if anyone else is experiencing the same cycles? It has been going on for about a year at least and if i'm looking at noobmeter it seems to have been like this in the past as well (albeit with longer cycles).

 

I experience the same. I don't believe its random but I see no point arguing about it here. I think they use RNG to manipulate the game.

Long_Range_Sniper #9 Posted 02 May 2018 - 07:20 AM

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Prunes are good for making you loose.

 

Alternatively, it could be the system dynamic of a hugely variable system where the time of day, tank you play, crew you use, missions ongoing, tier selected, game mode, and RNG all play a part.

 

 



__SLICK__ #10 Posted 02 May 2018 - 07:26 AM

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I blame the Dutch for so many cycles. :hiding:

OreH75 #11 Posted 02 May 2018 - 07:30 AM

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View Postbangash, on 02 May 2018 - 06:51 AM, said:

Ok let me share my experience about win-lose system. I will give example of my win-lose ratio by 0-30. From the last 400-500 battles i am stuck in 0-30 ratio, this is target to reach 0 but unfortunately MM force me to go beyond 30 and last night i cross that 30 barrier by continuous losing. First because of tank marathon and now normal MM. So i lost almost 30 battles even after wining. I hope its not confusing for you.

 

Last night you won 41.86 of 43 games which is 43*0.4186 = 18 games, so you lost "only" 43-18=25 games. So that is not 30 and I bet you dont lost all 25 in a row. 

uglycousin #12 Posted 02 May 2018 - 07:34 AM

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View PostLong_Range_Sniper, on 02 May 2018 - 08:20 AM, said:

Prunes are good for making you loose.

 

Specially so if you add yogurt and wine.

 

View PostLong_Range_Sniper, on 02 May 2018 - 08:20 AM, said:

Alternatively, it could be the system dynamic of a hugely variable system where the time of day, tank you play, crew you use, missions ongoing, tier selected, game mode, and RNG all play a part.

 

+1

 

View Post__SLICK__, on 02 May 2018 - 08:26 AM, said:

I blame the Dutch for so many cycles. :hiding:

 

It's more complicated than just that. :)



Long_Range_Sniper #13 Posted 02 May 2018 - 07:38 AM

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View Post__SLICK__, on 02 May 2018 - 06:26 AM, said:

I blame the Dutch for so many cycles. :hiding:

 

Holland is quite a dangerous place you know.

 

Too many cycle paths...........:B



Homer_J #14 Posted 02 May 2018 - 07:51 AM

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View PostOIias_of_Sunhillow, on 02 May 2018 - 01:19 AM, said:

I blame the moon.

 

It's the only explanation which makes sense.....

 

....if you ignore the fact that it's exactly what you would expect from random.



bangash #15 Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:42 AM

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View PostOreH75, on 02 May 2018 - 11:30 AM, said:

 

Last night you won 41.86 of 43 games which is 43*0.4186 = 18 games, so you lost "only" 43-18=25 games. So that is not 30 and I bet you dont lost all 25 in a row. 

 

FYI i mentioned 400-500 matches, and you missed DRAW matches as well. If you count those draws then i am sure my calculations are right, and yes i didn't lost 25 matches in row but still after wining i am losing these days.

OreH75 #16 Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:47 AM

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View Postbangash, on 02 May 2018 - 09:42 AM, said:

 

FYI i mentioned 400-500 matches, and you missed DRAW matches as well. If you count those draws then i am sure my calculations are right, and yes i didn't lost 25 matches in row but still after wining i am losing these days.

 

Yeah, bad days happen but your 30 day winrate of 52.34% over 684 battles is perfectly inline with your overall winrate. So that means you also had days yo got like 60-65% winrate.

jabster #17 Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:51 AM

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View Postbangash, on 02 May 2018 - 05:51 AM, said:

Ok let me share my experience about win-lose system. I will give example of my win-lose ratio by 0-30. From the last 400-500 battles i am stuck in 0-30 ratio, this is target to reach 0 but unfortunately MM force me to go beyond 30 and last night i cross that 30 barrier by continuous losing. First because of tank marathon and now normal MM. So i lost almost 30 battles even after wining. I hope its not confusing for you.

 

I’m not entirely sure what point you’re trying to make but if it’s just you had a bad losing streak, well yeh they are going to happen considering the amount of players and games played. The MM doesn’t need to be rigged for that to happen, indeed it would be a strange form of rigging to give players a bad experience without a clear way of mitigating against it. 

NUKLEAR_SLUG #18 Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:52 AM

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Sporadic cycles of wins and losses with no discernible pattern over time...

Someone should really come up with a word to describe this phenomenon!

Pandabird #19 Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:42 AM

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what brand of cycle? Where do i sign up?

bangash #20 Posted 02 May 2018 - 11:05 AM

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Yes but not anymore, may be its time to say good bye to wot.

Edited by bangash, 02 May 2018 - 11:08 AM.





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