Jump to content


winrate manipulated


  • This topic is locked This topic is locked
774 replies to this topic

jabster #601 Posted 11 July 2018 - 04:55 PM

    Field Marshal

  • Beta Tester
  • 12598 battles
  • 24,116
  • [WSAT] WSAT
  • Member since:
    12-30-2010


DracheimFlug #602 Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:18 PM

    Brigadier

  • Player
  • 9127 battles
  • 4,041
  • Member since:
    11-13-2014

View PostKozzy, on 11 July 2018 - 04:34 PM, said:

 

A pilot is in control of a plane but bird-strike, (very) bad weather, terrorists, Russians, etc can bring down the plane.  

 

But if said pilot controls their plane such that they fly into a flock of birds, a severe storm, terrorist controlled or contested territory, Russian airspace (without permission), etc, they could soon lose control of their plane. And if a pilot deviates too far from their flight plan without very good reason, they could likewise lose control of their aircraft (even if that does not happen until they are on the ground). That a pilot controls their plane does not mean they control what they fly though. Similarly, any given WoT player controls the tank they drive, but that does not mean that they control the battle that they have entered. 

Edited by DracheimFlug, 11 July 2018 - 09:22 PM.


Kozzy #603 Posted 12 July 2018 - 09:37 AM

    Major

  • Player
  • 38855 battles
  • 2,705
  • [RINSE] RINSE
  • Member since:
    06-29-2011

View PostDracheimFlug, on 11 July 2018 - 08:18 PM, said:

 

But if said pilot controls their plane such that they fly into a flock of birds, a severe storm, terrorist controlled or contested territory, Russian airspace (without permission), etc, they could soon lose control of their plane. And if a pilot deviates too far from their flight plan without very good reason, they could likewise lose control of their aircraft (even if that does not happen until they are on the ground). That a pilot controls their plane does not mean they control what they fly though. Similarly, any given WoT player controls the tank they drive, but that does not mean that they control the battle that they have entered. 

 

You've nearly got it!  So, like i said, the pilot is in control of the plane but the plane is influenced by other things as well.  Just like a player is in control of their win rate (they can play better and make it go up or play worse and make it go down) but there are other things that will have an influence.

Edited by Kozzy, 13 July 2018 - 08:09 AM.


GummiTier83 #604 Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:28 AM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 18563 battles
  • 503
  • [ASB] ASB
  • Member since:
    10-18-2012
Somehow i dont have to check wotlife to know what kind of player opens useless threats like this one. 

Kozzy #605 Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:31 AM

    Major

  • Player
  • 38855 battles
  • 2,705
  • [RINSE] RINSE
  • Member since:
    06-29-2011

View PostGummiTier83, on 12 July 2018 - 09:28 AM, said:

Somehow i dont have to check wotlife to know what kind of player opens useless threats like this one. 

 

There really does seem to be a correlation  negative correlation* between the performance of a player in this game and the likelihood of them believing the game is rigged (or rigged but not rigged).  Anyone have any theories as to why someone who is bad at the game might feel that the game is actually picking on them instead?

 

*Thanks Balders, my silly mistake


Edited by Kozzy, 12 July 2018 - 01:55 PM.


Cannes76 #606 Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:33 AM

    Lieutenant

  • Player
  • 68778 battles
  • 1,769
  • [TAKE] TAKE
  • Member since:
    04-16-2011

View PostGummiTier83, on 12 July 2018 - 10:28 AM, said:

Somehow i dont have to check wotlife to know what kind of player opens useless threats like this one. 

 

Would it suprise you that it was a unicum who was just trolling, and somehow the thread caught fire?

GummiTier83 #607 Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:38 AM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 18563 battles
  • 503
  • [ASB] ASB
  • Member since:
    10-18-2012

View PostCannes76, on 12 July 2018 - 09:33 AM, said:

 

Would it suprise you that it was a unicum who was just trolling, and somehow the thread caught fire?

 

Then this would just proof my point. Maybe i have to add one possibility: Tomato OR Troll. 

Baldrickk #608 Posted 12 July 2018 - 01:06 PM

    Field Marshal

  • Player
  • 30578 battles
  • 14,711
  • [-TAH-] -TAH-
  • Member since:
    03-03-2013

View PostKozzy, on 12 July 2018 - 10:31 AM, said:

 

There really does seem to be a correlation between the performance of a player in this game and the likelihood of them believing the game is rigged (or rigged but not rigged).  Anyone have any theories as to why someone who is bad at the game might feel that the game is actually picking on them instead?

Negative correlation, surely :)



LordMuffin #609 Posted 12 July 2018 - 04:47 PM

    Field Marshal

  • Player
  • 48529 battles
  • 11,268
  • [-GLO-] -GLO-
  • Member since:
    06-21-2011

View PostKozzy, on 12 July 2018 - 10:31 AM, said:

 

There really does seem to be a correlation  negative correlation* between the performance of a player in this game and the likelihood of them believing the game is rigged (or rigged but not rigged).  Anyone have any theories as to why someone who is bad at the game might feel that the game is actually picking on them instead?

 

*Thanks Balders, my silly mistake

 

People who are bad at things often overestimate their skills.

So a bad player things he is better then he is and thus deserve to win more then he does.

 

The rigging is then the logical explanation from their perspective.



jabster #610 Posted 12 July 2018 - 04:54 PM

    Field Marshal

  • Beta Tester
  • 12598 battles
  • 24,116
  • [WSAT] WSAT
  • Member since:
    12-30-2010

View PostKozzy, on 12 July 2018 - 09:31 AM, said:

 

There really does seem to be a correlation  negative correlation* between the performance of a player in this game and the likelihood of them believing the game is rigged (or rigged but not rigged).  Anyone have any theories as to why someone who is bad at the game might feel that the game is actually picking on them instead?

 

*Thanks Balders, my silly mistake

 

Got to say I’m not overly convinced there is much of a correlation between the two. Is it more of a case of confirmation bias at work as it’s far easier to think someone is part of the tinfoil brigade because they are bad than just think there are people are like that whether they are good or bad?

Baldrickk #611 Posted 12 July 2018 - 05:23 PM

    Field Marshal

  • Player
  • 30578 battles
  • 14,711
  • [-TAH-] -TAH-
  • Member since:
    03-03-2013

View Postjabster, on 12 July 2018 - 04:54 PM, said:

 

Got to say I’m not overly convinced there is much of a correlation between the two. Is it more of a case of confirmation bias at work as it’s far easier to think someone is part of the tinfoil brigade because they are bad than just think there are people are like that whether they are good or bad?

 Decides to start tracking people's stats on seeing rigged mm claims. 



m1x_angelico #612 Posted 12 July 2018 - 06:43 PM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 23257 battles
  • 886
  • [-VETO] -VETO
  • Member since:
    01-04-2015

View PostLordMuffin, on 12 July 2018 - 04:47 PM, said:

People who are bad at things often overestimate their skills.

So a bad player things he is better then he is and thus deserve to win more then he does.

 

The rigging is then the logical explanation from their perspective.

 

I know you have no malicious intents, but it is very dangerous to stereotype and describe people and complex behaviors in two dimensions. People tend to do this to make it easier for themselves to understand the world (and people) around them. I guess you can call it internal brain mechanism in efficiency and optimal use or resources (energy), but it may lead to some bad conclusions.

 

Instinct is a very good tool all people have. Granted, it can be manipulated, it can even lead to logical fallacies and irrational behavior.  Still, you will find lots of evidence in literature where people were dead on, even there was no evidence or very little evidence to support the (feeling) conclusion. I guess, ultimately you can dismiss this to statistical probabilities of being right, despite having access to no or little evidence.

 

The problem here arises not only because of one paranoid player, but because of multitude of players over the years. And the latest MM changes seem to have only exaggerated the problem.

 

If on one hand you have numerous players (new players coming every day) stating one thing based on their instinct and personal perception that something is wrong and, on the other hand, a small group of the same players appearing on every forum post stating the opposite, whereas this small group of players is dismissive, harsh and insulting, and where there is little or no evidence, then you logically will get paranoia, shilling accusations, toxicity, etc. Therefore, any sane person based on such environment and inputs will conclude same or similar, and not because a player thinks he "deserve to win more then he does".

 

Baldrickk has done a great service to this issue and to the WOT Community. Any person can now actually analyse their data and not speculate any more. We can debate over the results of this data and if one or the other interpretation is fine. I think that, regardless of whether it shows "rigging" or not, it will eventually reduce the level of toxicity regarding this issue, and potentially force WG to deal with it (unless they already are dealing with it in the background).

 

EDIT: Typose


Edited by m1x_angelico, 12 July 2018 - 06:44 PM.


LordMuffin #613 Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:11 PM

    Field Marshal

  • Player
  • 48529 battles
  • 11,268
  • [-GLO-] -GLO-
  • Member since:
    06-21-2011

View Postm1x_angelico, on 12 July 2018 - 06:43 PM, said:

 

I know you have no malicious intents, but it is very dangerous to stereotype and describe people and complex behaviors in two dimensions. People tend to do this to make it easier for themselves to understand the world (and people) around them. I guess you can call it internal brain mechanism in efficiency and optimal use or resources (energy), but it may lead to some bad conclusions.

 

Instinct is a very good tool all people have. Granted, it can be manipulated, it can even lead to logical fallacies and irrational behavior.  Still, you will find lots of evidence in literature where people were dead on, even there was no evidence or very little evidence to support the (feeling) conclusion. I guess, ultimately you can dismiss this to statistical probabilities of being right, despite having access to no or little evidence.

 

The problem here arises not only because of one paranoid player, but because of multitude of players over the years. And the latest MM changes seem to have only exaggerated the problem.

 

If on one hand you have numerous players (new players coming every day) stating one thing based on their instinct and personal perception that something is wrong and, on the other hand, a small group of the same players appearing on every forum post stating the opposite, whereas this small group of players is dismissive, harsh and insulting, and where there is little or no evidence, then you logically will get paranoia, shilling accusations, toxicity, etc. Therefore, any sane person based on such environment and inputs will conclude same or similar, and not because a player thinks he "deserve to win more then he does".

 

Baldrickk has done a great service to this issue and to the WOT Community. Any person can now actually analyse their data and not speculate any more. We can debate over the results of this data and if one or the other interpretation is fine. I think that, regardless of whether it shows "rigging" or not, it will eventually reduce the level of toxicity regarding this issue, and potentially force WG to deal with it (unless they already are dealing with it in the background).

 

EDIT: Typose

The behavior I described is known, it is called the dunning-Krüger effect, and it goes for everything.

Someone who is bad at something will in general overestimate their ability at that thing. 

While people who are good at something will in general have a hard time realising how good they are and also have a hard time understanding the difficulty in what they are good at.

 

This is a common psychological effect, which most probably is the foundation for most of the guys claiming rigged WR.

 

It effects aswell, for me it is completely natural to set my tank up and pre aim at an expected enemy position when I see my team mate go forward. But my experience in this game tells me such plays are not natural for a great deal of the players.

 

Instincts are not to be trusted. They are extremely unreliable, just like feelings and gut-feelings etc.


Edited by LordMuffin, 12 July 2018 - 07:17 PM.


DracheimFlug #614 Posted 12 July 2018 - 09:46 PM

    Brigadier

  • Player
  • 9127 battles
  • 4,041
  • Member since:
    11-13-2014

View PostKozzy, on 12 July 2018 - 09:37 AM, said:

 

You've nearly got it!  So, like i said, the pilot is in control of the plane but the plane is influenced by other things as well.  Just like a player is in control of their win rate (they can play better and make it go up or play worse and make it go down) but their are other things that will have an influence.

 

But my point is that influence can also make something go up or down. You control your own actions, but that is not quite the same as controlling the results.

unhappy_bunny #615 Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:24 PM

    Major

  • Player
  • 18596 battles
  • 2,870
  • [-OC-] -OC-
  • Member since:
    08-01-2012

View PostLordMuffin, on 12 July 2018 - 06:11 PM, said:

The behavior I described is known, it is called the dunning-Krüger effect, and it goes for everything.

Someone who is bad at something will in general overestimate their ability at that thing. 

 

 

 

 

I am bad at carpentry, I know I am bad at it. I certainly do not overestimate my ability at it. 

Of course this has nothing to do with playing tanks, and probably nothing to do with this thread, but I just felt like mentioning it. 



Slyspy #616 Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:52 PM

    Field Marshal

  • Player
  • 14205 battles
  • 16,761
  • [T-D-U] T-D-U
  • Member since:
    12-07-2011

View Postunhappy_bunny, on 12 July 2018 - 11:24 PM, said:

 

I am bad at carpentry, I know I am bad at it. I certainly do not overestimate my ability at it. 

Of course this has nothing to do with playing tanks, and probably nothing to do with this thread, but I just felt like mentioning it. 

 

The fact that incorrect self-assessment has a named effect does not mean that correct self-assessment is impossible.



Jigabachi #617 Posted 13 July 2018 - 03:14 AM

    Field Marshal

  • Player
  • 17948 battles
  • 19,620
  • [T-D-U] T-D-U
  • Member since:
    08-12-2011

View PostSlyspy, on 12 July 2018 - 11:52 PM, said:

The fact that incorrect self-assessment has a named effect does not mean that correct self-assessment is impossible.

Hmm... maybe he isn't just bad but VERY bad at carpentry.

Bunny, does the wood catch fire when you try to hammer a nail into it?



TANKOPPRESSION #618 Posted 13 July 2018 - 04:04 AM

    Warrant Officer

  • Player
  • 43708 battles
  • 844
  • [-SJA-] -SJA-
  • Member since:
    04-25-2012


Kozzy #619 Posted 13 July 2018 - 08:21 AM

    Major

  • Player
  • 38855 battles
  • 2,705
  • [RINSE] RINSE
  • Member since:
    06-29-2011

View PostDracheimFlug, on 12 July 2018 - 08:46 PM, said:

 

But my point is that influence can also make something go up or down. You control your own actions, but that is not quite the same as controlling the results.

 

Again, you appear to be getting there; control != determining the results.

 

View Postjabster, on 12 July 2018 - 03:54 PM, said:

 

Got to say I’m not overly convinced there is much of a correlation between the two. Is it more of a case of confirmation bias at work as it’s far easier to think someone is part of the tinfoil brigade because they are bad than just think there are people are like that whether they are good or bad?

 

I dunno, I do feel that the whole "I get bad teams all the time" or "WG won't let me go over X% WR" or "WG are making me lose" or "Every time I win a game WG make sure I lose a game" state of mind tends to affect bad players more than good.  

 

View PostBaldrickk, on 12 July 2018 - 04:23 PM, said:

 Decides to start tracking people's stats on seeing rigged mm claims. 

 

Maybe we can have some kind of register to keep track of these people. ;)

Catn1p #620 Posted 13 July 2018 - 10:30 AM

    Private

  • Player
  • 1350 battles
  • 29
  • Member since:
    10-17-2017

View PostKozzy, on 13 July 2018 - 08:21 AM, said:

 

Again, you appear to be getting there; control != determining the results.

 

 

I dunno, I do feel that the whole "I get bad teams all the time" or "WG won't let me go over X% WR" or "WG are making me lose" or "Every time I win a game WG make sure I lose a game" state of mind tends to affect bad players more than good.  

 

 

Maybe we can have some kind of register to keep track of these people. ;)

 

At least a full list of circlejerking WG shills is readily available.




1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users