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Winrate and WN8 correlation - and how are the two (not) connected?

win rate wn8

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Bora_BOOM #1 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:01 PM

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Lot of players follow their stats, some don’t care, some only play for numbers. I myself like to win of course, and do follow my progress and occasionally try to draw a conclusion out of it. And although we know that WN8 is probably a broken number, padded, tank dependent etc, having it higher usually means also you are winning more. Looking at other players, streamers and the stats as a whole, in general you can link red winrate to red wn8, green to green, purple to purple...

 

What I am trying to figure out, and I don’t manage to do it, is why is my winrate always above the wn8 that "should follow"?

 

The reason for this question is not that I would like to have higher stats or crying why is my wn8 low. The reason is should I change my playstyle and try to do more damage (focused more on getting that one more shot in and taking more risks - camping and padding is not an option) or should I just continue to do what I have been doing so far?

 

Now, platoons do boost up your winrate, but I think I am platooning like 1/3 of the games I am playing (not sure, is there website to check this?). Also, players that I usually toon with end battles pretty much with the same results, so I would not say I have been carried. But I also don’t exclude a possibility getting a small platoon boost for us all... 

 

I understand that players that have 60-ish winrate maintain that with much higher wn8 than my average. And they do play better, no question about it. I am not consistent, so its usually couple of purple wn8 games, some average green-blue and more often than I would like - I end a battle with a miserable dmg done (to aggressive I believe?) ... So those bad and good ones cancel each other out.

 

Dunno if its luck, but I have a trend (last couple thousands of games) of having winrates not followed by their "wn8 pair" to put it that way. I would like to believe that I am doing what I am supposed to do on the battlefield in my tanks and that I have improved my play, but the numbers are confirming that only partially (if wn8 is still a representative thing).

 

Can anyone draw a conclusion, or has experience with this or whatever... Be free to discuss. 

 

Noombers: 

 

Spoiler


Flid_Merchant #2 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:14 PM

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Some of it is doing the right damage at the right time. Taking out scouts, dangerous opponents, etc, especially early on are more likely to have an effect on win rate. But then again, out of thousands of players, there are bound to be some statistical anomalies. It's probably because you get stitched up by matchmaking :trollface:

Suurpolskija #3 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:14 PM

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You get higher wn8 when you lose games if you're among the last ones to go. 

 



Nullmaruzero #4 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:21 PM

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WN8 is flawed in many ways and many aspects and actions of your gameplay do not boost your wn8 (or even make it suffer) while they greatly improve chance for a win.

For example, you are sticking around an empty flank, which prevents 2-3 very poor enemy players to push, but on the other hand you cannot push yourself or kill them. You are wasting your potential WN8 gain but your team has 3 tanks less to worry about on the other flanks. But if you withdraw, your teammates will get flanked. Tough choice.

 

Or, you decide to take some damage covering a detracked almost dead ally so his gun can stay in the game as long as possible. In the end he may do extra 2k dmg while you may die due to that voluntarily taken damage. Again, game won but no one will give you a reward for that. That's why I want WG to make kind of kudos system for post-battle screen, so people could give you some points and thus rewards.

 

As a spotter I have had many situations where my longlasting spot allowed my team to take positions which allowed them to obliterate (remaining) enemy forces. The problem was, these positions all were so close to enemies that they started spotting their own targets. But without my "tactical" spot, they would not know where the enemy is and would not take position already knowing precisely who they are going to shoot. In the end, my spot won the game but I got nothing for that.

 

And that's why (in my opinion) WR may be higher than WN8. Tactical things do not increase WN8 but they do increase chance to win for the team.

Also, WN8 is different for each tank. There are tanks where a couple of shots gives blue or purple WN8 and some where 2k dmg is merely "yellow" WN8. Once upon a time I used to be in love with ELC AMX (once got 100.00% MoE :D have a screenshot) and even though I always put passive spot over damage, it pumped my stats to an extent which affects my overalls even today.

 

BUT! Don't feel bad about statpadding up to the level of your WR :D Blue WR? Here, have a permit for statpadding WN8 up to blue level :)


Edited by Nullmaruzero, 16 July 2018 - 02:26 PM.


Bora_BOOM #5 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:21 PM

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View PostSuurpolskija, on 16 July 2018 - 01:14 PM, said:

You get higher wn8 when you lose games if you're among the last ones to go. 

 

 

I would not say that I am "actively trying" to stay alive but rather I am not afraid get "stuck in". For example, I took a heavy corner on Fjords in Obj 430 against IS-3, T-29 and a T30 cause our heavies went to grocery shop to buy some carrots. I managed 3-4 shots in which is lame, but they where held up there for more than 3 minutes.

Bora_BOOM #6 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:30 PM

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View PostNullmaruzero, on 16 July 2018 - 01:21 PM, said:

WN8 is flawed in many ways and many aspects and actions of your gameplay do not boost your wn8 (or even make it suffer) while they greatly improve chance for a win.

.....

 

I am aware of that. Playing intensively lately in my skorp-g, m40/43 and somewhat t54-ltwt cause of personal missions did not help to my wn8...



Suurpolskija #7 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:30 PM

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View PostBora_BOOM, on 16 July 2018 - 03:21 PM, said:

 

I would not say that I am "actively trying" to stay alive but rather I am not afraid get "stuck in". For example, I took a heavy corner on Fjords in Obj 430 against IS-3, T-29 and a T30 cause our heavies went to grocery shop to buy some carrots. I managed 3-4 shots in which is lame, but they where held up there for more than 3 minutes.

 

Oh there were no stones thrown here. It's just an observation even from my own gameplay and gives good grounds for "I haz purple wn8's and still win only 30% today wth" -whines even I tend to share with my fellow tankers. 

 

I have this problem with my TD's some games. I'm too passive and won't put my armor & HP in the game because I think my gun has a value on holding some flank that turned out to be abandoned by the enemy. But then I get to farm the YOLO in the end and still get a decent wn8 while my contribution to the game might have been very little to non existent. 

 

Obviously I don't like that and I actively try to find places where I can be of use because I wanna win and I haven't been tracking my overall e-peen8 for a long time anymore. Although I know the rough value where abouts it is. 



Mannanan #8 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:35 PM

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Stats can be made better by just learning how to chase damage at the end of an already won game. Or learning how to retreat in time into a good defensive position when a game is already lost. If you manage to do your damage early to mid game instead this alone can account to wn8 500 easily. There is many tactical moves which help to win a fight or the whole game which are not reflected in WN8. Clever gameplay utilizing your support is not rewarded in WN8 either. Or you are good at reading a game and willing to sacrifice on decap while your team rides lemming train on the other side. Or you don't mind to stall one side while doing close to none damage giving time to your team to farm and win other side, meantime you die and team continue to win and farm. You maintain decently high survive ratio which might be part of the answer, maybe you are not the best player but you live long enough to give better players enough time to kill them all:) While saying this it actually requires to be quite good at game to execute these actions on regular basis hence obviously this all can be BS and you are just lucky on MM and your loosing streaks are just behind next door.

Suurpolskija #9 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:38 PM

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So, I think there is a straight correlation if you play smart and apply that dmg in the correct spot, you're likely to win more than if you don't do the dmg. I have however seen even players with green wn8 with as low as 48% winrate and that sure begs the question: how do they do it? And the answer probably is that wn8 is the metric they care about and they've noticed that they get more if they live to see the end game, which is true but definately loses you games more than it wins if you don't take part in the actual fight. 



TANKOPPRESSION #10 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:40 PM

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All statistics derived from this game can only be as good as the deployment of the game .

Dava_117 #11 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:48 PM

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I don't think the 2 are closely bonded. Just check at my 4 most played tanks:

ST-I: dark green WR with light blue WN8

T-150: dark blue WR with light blue WN8

KV-4: light blue WR with dark green WN8

IS-4: yellow WR with dark green WN8.

 

And I could go on with even weirder case, like red WR with dark green WN8 (obtained in VK36.01H fighting on the front LOL).



marlboro80 #12 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:51 PM

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View PostBora_BOOM, on 16 July 2018 - 01:30 PM, said:

 

I am aware of that. Playing intensively lately in my skorp-g, m40/43 and somewhat t54-ltwt cause of personal missions did not help to my wn8...

 

Spotting damage is not calculated for wn8.

i have red wn8 in some of my lights but green wr as I drive them as spotters only but hardly doing damage myself.

probably same for arty and support damage, but I’m not sure about that.



KAOS8989 #13 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:52 PM

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View PostBora_BOOM, on 16 July 2018 - 02:01 PM, said:

Lot of players follow their stats, some don’t care, some only play for numbers. I myself like to win of course, and do follow my progress and occasionally try to draw a conclusion out of it. And although we know that WN8 is probably a broken number, padded, tank dependent etc, having it higher usually means also you are winning more. Looking at other players, streamers and the stats as a whole, in general you can link red winrate to red wn8, green to green, purple to purple...

 

What I am trying to figure out, and I don’t manage to do it, is why is my winrate always above the wn8 that "should follow"?

 

The reason for this question is not that I would like to have higher stats or crying why is my wn8 low. The reason is should I change my playstyle and try to do more damage (focused more on getting that one more shot in and taking more risks - camping and padding is not an option) or should I just continue to do what I have been doing so far?

 

Now, platoons do boost up your winrate, but I think I am platooning like 1/3 of the games I am playing (not sure, is there website to check this?). Also, players that I usually toon with end battles pretty much with the same results, so I would not say I have been carried. But I also don’t exclude a possibility getting a small platoon boost for us all... 

 

I understand that players that have 60-ish winrate maintain that with much higher wn8 than my average. And they do play better, no question about it. I am not consistent, so its usually couple of purple wn8 games, some average green-blue and more often than I would like - I end a battle with a miserable dmg done (to aggressive I believe?) ... So those bad and good ones cancel each other out.

 

Dunno if its luck, but I have a trend (last couple thousands of games) of having winrates not followed by their "wn8 pair" to put it that way. I would like to believe that I am doing what I am supposed to do on the battlefield in my tanks and that I have improved my play, but the numbers are confirming that only partially (if wn8 is still a representative thing).

 

Can anyone draw a conclusion, or has experience with this or whatever... Be free to discuss. 

 

Noombers: 

 

Spoiler

I think the problem is eider you are too aggressive or you stay to much behind or you play too many light tanks... in principle you have ~ same trend in WN8  like me ( yours is a little better ) but you get a lot less XP.

Is very strange, you have all stats same like me or better but the XP you receive is a lot less... something you are doing wrong...


Edited by KAOS8989, 16 July 2018 - 02:56 PM.


Bora_BOOM #14 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:55 PM

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View PostDava_117, on 16 July 2018 - 01:48 PM, said:

I don't think the 2 are closely bonded. Just check at my 4 most played tanks:

ST-I: dark green WR with light blue WN8

T-150: dark blue WR with light blue WN8

KV-4: light blue WR with dark green WN8

IS-4: yellow WR with dark green WN8.

 

And I could go on with even weirder case, like red WR with dark green WN8 (obtained in VK36.01H fighting on the front LOL).

 

I think that they are bonded enough and your examples are confirming that. The "offset margins" in those examples are only one level up or down (except IS-4). I will need to check my wr/wn8 per tank, but on average my "offset" is 2 levels. 59-60% is purple (I believe), any my wn8 is green.

 

Where is my blue gone I am trying to figure out! :teethhappy:



Mannanan #15 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:57 PM

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XP in stats depends on PA. Only once equalized it is possible to make any conclusion based on avg XP.

Edited by Mannanan, 16 July 2018 - 02:57 PM.


KAOS8989 #16 Posted 16 July 2018 - 02:59 PM

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View PostMannanan, on 16 July 2018 - 02:57 PM, said:

XP in stats depends on PA. Only once equalized it is possible to make any conclusion based on avg XP.

 

are you sure is not only the base XP taken in account ?

Edited by KAOS8989, 16 July 2018 - 03:00 PM.


Bora_BOOM #17 Posted 16 July 2018 - 03:02 PM

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View PostKAOS8989, on 16 July 2018 - 01:52 PM, said:

I think the problem is eider you are too aggressive or you stay to much behind or you play too many light tanks... in principle you have ~ same trend in WN8  like me ( yours is a little better ) but you get a lot less XP.

Is very strange, you have all stats same like me or better but the XP you receive is a lot less... something you are doing wrong...

 

I am doing something wrong, and there is plenty of it, I am certain. But the results show "something good is happening".

The two sayings my apply here:

- If it is stupid, but it works, its not stupid

- If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

 

Still searching....

 


Edited by Bora_BOOM, 16 July 2018 - 03:05 PM.


Emeraldweed #18 Posted 16 July 2018 - 03:11 PM

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I don't pad wn8 ( but i do keep an eye on it) all i care is to win + get lots of xp, wn8 it's a byproduct of that. It's absolutely fine if you are aggressive given that your aggressiveness influences the battle by a large margin towards victory. I am aggressive as well  (with a 30% survival rate xD)  What you look for is a fine balance between wn8+winrate  55-60% - 2200 + would be awesome. 

 

Platooning  helps only in the form of winrate given you are both competitive  which means more wins and higher winrate, however for me  platooning means less wn8 since i will share ''my'' damage with my platoonmate, again given that we are on the same skill level

 

Also as others mentioned  spotting is not calculated within wn8, so you can be a solid scout with 11k spotting game and  green-yellow wn8,  spot first shoot after is the best combo. 

 

Being a unicum  is all about knowing when to retreat, when to push,  where you can go to abuse situations. Map knowledge is a great thing, ridges you can abuse when X scenario happens etc.

 

Feel free to Pm me after the game if you need some help 



8126Jakobsson #19 Posted 16 July 2018 - 03:11 PM

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View PostKAOS8989, on 16 July 2018 - 02:59 PM, said:

 

are you sure is not only the base XP taken in account ?

 

Nope. Premium bonus counts for some reason. :D

Emeraldweed #20 Posted 16 July 2018 - 03:14 PM

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View Post8126Jakobsson, on 16 July 2018 - 05:11 PM, said:

 

Nope. Premium bonus counts for some reason. :D

 

+ premium tanks. check my stats  on prem tanks i got 1k xp average and on normal 800-900





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