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Confirmation Bias: Low damage rolls (?)


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Poll: Confirmation Bias: Low damage rolls (?) (80 members have cast votes)

You have to complete 250 battles in order to participate this poll.

Do you think low rolls are more common?

  1. Yes (28 votes [35.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 35.00%

  2. No (24 votes [30.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.00%

  3. Its confirmation bias allright (20 votes [25.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 25.00%

  4. Only participating in the raffle (8 votes [10.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.00%

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tumppi776 #1 Posted 03 August 2018 - 12:31 PM

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Firstly I have a question - should low and high damage rolls be abt 50:50 in occurrence?

 

I have roughly monitored my dmg rolls (non kill shots) quite a while now - and have a disctinct feeling low rolls are over-represented.

 

Especially T110E4 (and formerly the Grille) feels like hitting sub 700 rolls abt 3/4 of a time.

 

Have anyone else taken note of occurance of low rolls?

 


Edited by tumppi776, 03 August 2018 - 12:33 PM.


Balc0ra #2 Posted 03 August 2018 - 12:40 PM

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It's not a perfect 50:50 if that what you mean. If you test the same tank twice across say 25 games. It will differ greatly. Or it might be the same. As past tests have seen when they do a double. 

jabster #3 Posted 03 August 2018 - 12:47 PM

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View Posttumppi776, on 03 August 2018 - 11:31 AM, said:

Firstly I have a question - should low and high damage rolls be abt 50:50 in occurrence?

 

I have roughly monitored my dmg rolls (non kill shots) quite a while now - and have a disctinct feeling low rolls are over-represented.

 

Especially T110E4 (and formerly the Grille) feels like hitting sub 700 rolls abt 3/4 of a time.

 

Have anyone else taken note of occurance of low rolls?

 

 

You also need to remove any rolls that couldn’t have done maximum damage otherwise your results will be biased towards low rolls.



LCpl_Jones #4 Posted 03 August 2018 - 01:35 PM

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i only notice the low rolls that conveniently leave the enemy tank with 1 to 5 hp :sceptic:

 

just enough to [edited]me over in return :teethhappy:



Agent_327 #5 Posted 03 August 2018 - 01:47 PM

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As your kill shots will never do more damage than necessary. The average damage per shot will be lower than a normal distribution. It's confirmation bias alright ;) What would Wg gain by reducing average damage per shot?

jabster #6 Posted 03 August 2018 - 01:56 PM

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View PostAgent_327, on 03 August 2018 - 12:47 PM, said:

As your kill shots will never do more damage than necessary. The average damage per shot will be lower than a normal distribution. It's confirmation bias alright ;) What would Wg gain by reducing average damage per shot?

 

They aready said they removed kill shots.



Cobra6 #7 Posted 03 August 2018 - 01:58 PM

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For me there are definitely more low(fish) rolls then high rolls when playing. *Especially* when it's the final killing shot into an enemy there seems to be an uncanny amount of "1-10hp left" shots just so they can put a final shot into your before they die.

 

Cobra 6


Edited by Cobra6, 03 August 2018 - 01:59 PM.


Agent_327 #8 Posted 03 August 2018 - 02:02 PM

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View Postjabster, on 03 August 2018 - 01:56 PM, said:

 

They aready said they removed kill shots.

Fair enough :girl: I had to read it 3 times before I saw it.

 

Though what would Wg gain by programmatically making the distribution lower than what they have stated?



StinkyStonky #9 Posted 03 August 2018 - 02:02 PM

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View Postjabster, on 03 August 2018 - 12:56 PM, said:

 

They aready said they removed kill shots.

 

What do you mean by this ?

 

Agent_327 used "Kill Shot" to mean the shot that kills a tank.  If a sh!tbarn kills a tank on 10 hit points, the 10 points of damage isn't a "low roll", its a "kill shot".

 

So what is it that you think they removed ?

 

It would be interesting if the killing shot attributed the player with the full damage of their shell rather than just the remaining hit points of the tank.

It would mean that WN8 farmers wouldn't have a good reason to switch targets once a tank has HP < their average alpha.



FluffyRedFox #10 Posted 03 August 2018 - 02:04 PM

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Used to think this with 400 alpha guns, they never seemed to roll higher than 400 for me and I felt I was constantly getting out traded by 390 alpha guns.

So went into a training room on test server, tested the damage rolls excluding killing shots for 100 shots and got the average. It was 400.3. Did the same with 390 alpha guns and got an average roll of 390.6 after 100 shots :P



StinkyStonky #11 Posted 03 August 2018 - 02:06 PM

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View PostCobra6, on 03 August 2018 - 12:58 PM, said:

*Especially* when it's the final killing shot into an enemy there seems to be an uncanny amount of "1-10hp left" shots

I know what you mean.  I seem to miss an uncanny number of "Fire for Effect" medals by 10-50 HP.

 

But it's just confirmation bias.

 

How many times have you killed a tank because your damage roll was 1 or 2 points higher than their HP ?

The answer is you have no way to know because the client only tells you the damage you did, not the damage you could have done.



lotusblossom #12 Posted 03 August 2018 - 02:24 PM

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the OP stated that they had 'roughly' monitored their damage rolls for a quite a while, roughly is the problem. Trying to use rough monitoring for statistical analysis is bound to lead to accusations of confirmation bias invalidating the results. You would need to record more accurate data to get a better result. Doing this in battle is likely to result in you noticing what you are looking for more. Also doing this over say 25 hits as mentioned by another poster is not likely to give an accurate result because random scores often run in patches. The post from Fluffy would fit the bill for an investigation into this question, undertaking the measurements without action and adrenaline confusing the data collection and 100 shots providing a larger data base to lessen the effect of the random patterns that can form. However the conspiracy theorists who are always present will probably claim that WG have a different set of RNG for training grounds and other battles. 

jabster #13 Posted 03 August 2018 - 02:39 PM

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View PostStinkyStonky, on 03 August 2018 - 01:02 PM, said:

 

What do you mean by this ?

 

Agent_327 used "Kill Shot" to mean the shot that kills a tank.  If a sh!tbarn kills a tank on 10 hit points, the 10 points of damage isn't a "low roll", its a "kill shot".

 

So what is it that you think they removed ?

 

It would be interesting if the killing shot attributed the player with the full damage of their shell rather than just the remaining hit points of the tank.

It would mean that WN8 farmers wouldn't have a good reason to switch targets once a tank has HP < their average alpha.

 

I’m not really sure what you’re trying to say. They said they removed shots that killed tanks and that is what I was clarifying.

 

View PostCobra6, on 03 August 2018 - 12:58 PM, said:

For me there are definitely more low(fish) rolls then high rolls when playing. *Especially* when it's the final killing shot into an enemy there seems to be an uncanny amount of "1-10hp left" shots just so they can put a final shot into your before they die.

 

Cobra 6

 

So I presume you’ve got some evidence for that besides the feels?

Cobra6 #14 Posted 03 August 2018 - 02:41 PM

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View PostStinkyStonky, on 03 August 2018 - 01:06 PM, said:

 

How many times have you killed a tank because your damage roll was 1 or 2 points higher than their HP ?

The answer is you have no way to know because the client only tells you the damage you did, not the damage you could have done.

 

True but you do know the number of shots that killed vs. the number of shots that should kill but didn't.

 

Cobra 6



jabster #15 Posted 03 August 2018 - 02:43 PM

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View PostCobra6, on 03 August 2018 - 01:41 PM, said:

 

True but you do know the number of shots that killed vs. the number of shots that should kill but didn't.

 

Cobra 6

 

As you know that I’m sure lots of players would be interested in seeing how you came to that conclusion.

Cobra6 #16 Posted 03 August 2018 - 03:18 PM

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I'll start keeping a tally from today onwards just to humor you.

 

Cobra 6


Edited by Cobra6, 03 August 2018 - 03:18 PM.


Tankyouverymuch2 #17 Posted 03 August 2018 - 03:28 PM

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Nah they're 50:50 for sure.

 

Only thing is, I keep lowrolling and the enemy keeps highrolling so that's why it balances out. :trollface:



jabster #18 Posted 03 August 2018 - 03:45 PM

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View PostCobra6, on 03 August 2018 - 02:18 PM, said:

I'll start keeping a tally from today onwards just to humor you.

 

Cobra 6

 

Off you go then and I look forward to seeing the evidence that you present. Shall we say one week to do it?

Bob_the_Wallaby #19 Posted 03 August 2018 - 06:15 PM

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View Postjabster, on 03 August 2018 - 03:45 PM, said:

 

Off you go then and I look forward to seeing the evidence that you present. Shall we say one week to do it?

 

Hear, hear!

 

Jabster here knows all about high and low rolls because he plays only Pz. I C. He’s the guy you want and need to convince. He knows.



jabster #20 Posted 03 August 2018 - 06:29 PM

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View PostBob_the_Wallaby, on 03 August 2018 - 05:15 PM, said:

 

Hear, hear!

 

Jabster here knows all about high and low rolls because he plays only Pz. I C. He’s the guy you want and need to convince. He knows.

 

So this low and high rolls only happen for certain tanks?




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