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Penetrated HE damage RNG + Bonus question

HE RNG Sigma Bias

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Dava_117 #1 Posted 15 September 2018 - 11:06 AM

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Ok. First of all, this is not a whine thread or some conspiracy theory thread. I have a feeling, that can surely be biased itself, and I'm asking if you have more info about it.

 

Let's start. Yesterday was playing my KV-2, saw an STA-1 standing still toward me, so I shot him with HE: 810 damage. It's quite a big low roll on a gun that has 910 alpha + or - 227.5. This made me think about the last big high roll I got, and it's been hounderds of games ago, when I penned a SPershing for more than 1k HP. At the same time I remember quite a lot of low roll, included a 740roll in the back of a tank that had barely 800HP. 

I know this can be a confirmation bias, but from other posts I remember something about the damage and pen roll having being biased toward the center in a similar way to accuracy and that arty shell have a bias toward the lower end (can't remember well if just for stun or damage too). 

My assumption is that I've just been unlucky, but all those stuff I remember make me thinks about the fact that WG may have biased all the HE shell damage (and not just arty) towards the lower end. Because I don't belive in stealt nerf of this magnitude, my question is: do I miss a patch note or something similar that announce this or I just get unlucky/have a biased feeling?

 

Please, keep discussion clear, no conspiracy involved here.

 

Bonus question:

I will put this here because it doesn't deservs a stand alone thread.

How does the penetration indicator works? In particular, what the 3 colours mean? IIRC green 100% chance, red 0% chance and orange in between. Does it also take into account ricochet angle?

 

Thank you all for the contribution. :)


Edited by Dava_117, 15 September 2018 - 11:12 AM.


RaxipIx #2 Posted 15 September 2018 - 11:26 AM

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Don't think it is biased, penned a Type 5 side in the  FV 183 for 2.160(that's almost a max roll) and the next shot was on a Leopard for 1980 ( still a decent high roll)

Probably got unlucky 

 

Also probably confirmation bias, because on  derp guns you can't see the roll every time of firing because of the multitude of shots that don't pen still do damage. 

 

And i am also pretty sure that the tendency is  for the avg value of the possible damage, so  you will tend to see +10 -10 % shots most of the time, with the pretty rare max/ min rolls.

 

As for the Bonus  question, if i remember correctly it does not take into account angles only the raw thickness, if you shoot heat the indicator does not take into account spaced armor. I'm not entirely sure about the space armor part.



wremise #3 Posted 15 September 2018 - 11:27 AM

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RNG means you have a chance to do +/- 25% of damage. But noone ever said, that the chance to highroll is as high as to get a lowroll.

 

And the secound question: Orange does mean, you have to 50% chance to penetrate the enemy, included every fact like distance or angle.


Edited by wremise, 15 September 2018 - 11:30 AM.


Dava_117 #4 Posted 15 September 2018 - 11:32 AM

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Thank you guys. This is more or less what I was expecting. But asked to be sure. :)

RaxipIx #5 Posted 15 September 2018 - 11:39 AM

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After i checked it seems the penetration indicator does take into account the angle/distance, seems it got fixed a couple of patches ago.

 

"

  • Changed the mechanics of armor penetration indicator." Although it does not actually say what they changed, more smarter people found out that now it takes into account everything.


Dava_117 #6 Posted 15 September 2018 - 11:45 AM

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View PostRaxipIx, on 15 September 2018 - 11:39 AM, said:

After i checked it seems the penetration indicator does take into account the angle/distance, seems it got fixed a couple of patches ago.

 

"

  • Changed the mechanics of armor penetration indicator." Although it does not actually say what they changed, more smarter people found out that now it takes into account everything.

 

Nice to know. Thank you Raxi. :)

Slyspy #7 Posted 15 September 2018 - 11:56 AM

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View PostDava_117, on 15 September 2018 - 11:06 AM, said:

I remember something about the damage and pen roll having being biased toward the center in a similar way to accuracy and that arty shell have a bias toward the lower end (can't remember well if just for stun or damage too). 

 

 

I believe that you are mistaken and that damage at least is a flat roll. 







Also tagged with HE, RNG, Sigma, Bias

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