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WOT CONTROLS WIN RATE

control wn8 winrate manipulation win rate aliens cheat

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ftangTheSeer #41 Posted 23 October 2018 - 01:44 AM

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View Postuma_delicia, on 22 October 2018 - 11:23 PM, said:

if so many people come to same conclusion it really makes you think

 

Makes me think about confirmation bias and the power of self-persuasion.

 

View Postuma_delicia, on 22 October 2018 - 11:23 PM, said:

Obviously it's not their intrest to give low win ratio... however they can manipulate MM for other reasons. Personal missions for example. whatever the requirement MM is opposite to that. When this happens few times I can take it as a bad luck or coincidence but if every WIN mission is followed by lose streak, or when every 'cause damage to TDs'  mission is followed by mm with no or 1 TD it rasies questions. Why? to make you enter another battle and spend more time playing..

 

Of course, it couldn't be the player relaxing their focus after completing a tough mission, it has to be the game being rigged against that one player deliberately because .. er .. reasons.

 

And how many times do you notice how many TDs are in a battle when you're not running a 'cause damage to TDs' mission? You don't because you're not looking for it.

 

Serious question - if you're convinced that the game is rigged against you, why do you continue playing?



anonym_U3G0ioxJJ7rs #42 Posted 23 October 2018 - 03:04 AM

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View PostDorander, on 23 October 2018 - 01:18 AM, said:

 

In before the next conspiracy theorist brings up the patent as "evidence"...

 

This song and dance will never end. No, we can't prove OP wrong, but we can dismiss his claims as nonsense just like every other claim that is untestable (hence not supported by any evidence) is nonsense. Posters like OP don't have a discussion with arguments, they assert their truth out of frustration. Most people here are more than happy to debate arguments, but somebody has to actually post arguments about this topic first and contrary to popular belief, "I jumped to this conclusion" is not an argument.

 

So please tell me which arguments OP and other likeminded people actually have that we can discuss? He might as well believe in aliens and ghosts for all the evidence he has for his beliefs about the matchmaker.

 

Original post isn't nonsense because that's not how randomness works. If you get exceptionally lucky and manage to play 100 battles at 75% win rate (or vice versa) then it's not random/normal for the next 100 to be 25%. In randomness previous % won't affect next outcome. And this is happening all the time as he said. Take roulette for example - just because you spin red 10 times in row doesn't increase your chances of getting black next. Each spin has 50/50 chance no matter the previous results.

 

View PostJigabachi, on 22 October 2018 - 11:57 PM, said:

Besides that, I think I already wrote that in a different thread: When we hosted Battlefield servers, the amount of reports that really reported a cheater were <1%, with 100s of reports per day. That made me think, too, back then... beyond irrelevant comparison

 

No idea. We all have tanks that we did poorly in because one reason or the other. Could be a streak of poor luck, could be the tank balance, could be the grind. Bonus points for being arty, which is the most team-dependant tank in the game.

Besides that, why do you think that this is rigging? And rigging in what direction? And how do you know that 120 matches is enough data? did you even bother to calculate the differences between those stats?

 

you said it yourself, arty is the most team-dependant tank in the game so all those things you listed impact even less... and MM even more

soo, if  you have no idea why are you so eager to defend the opposite?

 



TheDayWeDie #43 Posted 23 October 2018 - 06:05 AM

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Pure chance theory? Do you think this is a way to conduct a business?

 

When it comes to salary payment, do you thing Wargaming thinks about it in terms of chances? Do you think that their developers are paid using 50/50 chances, something like "uhmm...today is the salary day. will I be payed or not?"

 

Winrate is not something oriented against someone. It would be absurd. It's just a tool used in their business plan, as it should be. It's not something personal, they don't want a player to lose, they want other players to win. Without this strategy, new players or under average players would leave the game without any hesitation.

 

Noone would play a game like World of Tanks having a 10-20% winrate. Noone would spend money to be a permanent victim. It's about consumer psychology. Of course, we dont speak about Pathological Gambling Symptom, this is another thing, but World of Tanks is not designed for this kind of persons.

 

In my opinion the real problem is not "winrate adjustment" but "how to do it" and I think this is the real provocation for the developers (and for the business plan as a whole).

 

 



Rataplan #44 Posted 23 October 2018 - 06:19 AM

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My overall winrate got up from 53,56% to 53,60% this weekend.

 

That must mean that WG is officially considering me as a noob now (which I could understand) or thinks I'm a new player (a bit harder to understand since I'm around since 2011).

 

Or I'm the exception that confirms the theory (I always considered myself to be some special snowflake worthy of attention from a big company).

 

Or your theory is poo poo (beware of poo poo though, whole armies have fell victim to it).

 

Take your pick.



TheDayWeDie #45 Posted 23 October 2018 - 06:35 AM

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View PostRataplan, on 23 October 2018 - 07:19 AM, said:

My overall winrate got up from 53,56% to 53,60% this weekend.

 

That must mean that WG is officially considering me as a noob now (which I could understand) or thinks I'm a new player (a bit harder to understand since I'm around since 2011).

 

Or I'm the exception that confirms the theory (I always considered myself to be some special snowflake worthy of attention from a big company).

 

Or your theory is poo poo (beware of poo poo though, whole armies have fell victim to it).

 

Take your pick.

 

Your recent winrate (last 1000 battles) is 49.7% , with 4 percent less than your overall winrate.

 

Anyway, I am not talking about a business strategy oriented against one person. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, it's normal.

 

Are you agree with me that noone would play/pay for a constant 10-20% winrate?



NUKLEAR_SLUG #46 Posted 23 October 2018 - 07:06 AM

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View Postuma_delicia, on 23 October 2018 - 03:04 AM, said:

 

Original post isn't nonsense because that's not how randomness works. If you get exceptionally lucky and manage to play 100 battles at 75% win rate (or vice versa) then it's not random/normal for the next 100 to be 25%. In randomness previous % won't affect next outcome. And this is happening all the time as he said. Take roulette for example - just because you spin red 10 times in row doesn't increase your chances of getting black next. Each spin has 50/50 chance no matter the previous results.

 

That right there is exactly your problem. When you win your first 100 games at 75% you just think it's lucky. When you win your next 100 games at 25% you assume that the only explanation is that something is being rigged. 

 

Why do you not assume that you got exceptionally lucky the first 100 games and got exceptionally unlucky the next 100?

 

Why are you only seeing a problem when you're losing and not when you're winning?



TheDayWeDie #47 Posted 23 October 2018 - 07:20 AM

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View PostNUKLEAR_SLUG, on 23 October 2018 - 08:06 AM, said:

 

That right there is exactly your problem. When you win your first 100 games at 75% you just think it's lucky. When you win your next 100 games at 25% you assume that the only explanation is that something is being rigged. 

 

Why do you not assume that you got exceptionally lucky the first 100 games and got exceptionally unlucky the next 100?

 

Why are you only seeing a problem when you're losing and not when you're winning?

 

Do you really think that WG business model is based only on pure luck?

 

Winning without any effort is same as toxic as losing without any reason. If you win too much without any effort has the same effect as losing too much no matter what you do: you will leave the game because it's boring.

 

The topic is about WG controling the winrate. I don't think they control it, I think they alter it according to their business plan. It's normal since WG is not some kind of church who has the main purpose to entertain someone for free.



Itchy_Pants #48 Posted 23 October 2018 - 07:48 AM

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View Postuma_delicia, on 22 October 2018 - 11:23 PM, said:

 

 

also, explain this: M44 42.86% wr while m12 has 56%? Why is the difference so big while other stats are similar? I completed all 15 missions in M44.

Both have around 120 battles wich is more than enough data 

 

No, it isn't. As far as winrate is concerned, 120 battles really tells you very little.



jabster #49 Posted 23 October 2018 - 07:54 AM

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View PostTheDayWeDie, on 23 October 2018 - 05:35 AM, said:

 

Are you agree with me that noone would play/pay for a constant 10-20% winrate?

 

Yes you’re right that no one would play with that win-rate but then again that’s what the current format already does so why does your argument that there’s some further control going on (when it’s obviously not needed for that objective) make any sense at all?

Edited by jabster, 23 October 2018 - 08:02 AM.


Jigabachi #50 Posted 23 October 2018 - 07:55 AM

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View Postuma_delicia, on 23 October 2018 - 03:04 AM, said:

soo, if  you have no idea why are you so eager to defend the opposite?

Where exactly am I defending anything?

You notice something that looks weird and immediately blame it on rigging, without any further explanation. I merely threw in some things that might have affected those stats.


Edited by Jigabachi, 23 October 2018 - 07:57 AM.


Ace42X #51 Posted 23 October 2018 - 07:57 AM

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View Postttzimas, on 22 October 2018 - 05:11 PM, said:

Every time I have a good weekend, something very strange happens

I DON'T believe in aliens or in ghost

BUT after a good week I find it impossible to lose so many games in a row without some kind of WIN RATE control

i posted a picture of my last games and right now i have 3 wins in 15 games!!! 

i play with the same 10 tanks for the last month, even though i have around 100

And this happens all the time

a good day with 75% wins and IMMEDIATELY the next day 25% win rate!!!

DISCUSS 

Capture.JPG

 

 

https://en.wikipedia...toward_the_mean

Homer_J #52 Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:00 AM

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View Postuma_delicia, on 22 October 2018 - 11:23 PM, said:

 

if so many people come to same conclusion it really makes you think

 

I see, so if a lot of people come to the conclusion that it is rigged then they are right but if a lot of people come to the conclusion that it isn't then they are WG employees.

 

Tin foil hatter logic in a nutshell.



Bora_BOOM #53 Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:06 AM

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jabster #54 Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:08 AM

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View Postuma_delicia, on 22 October 2018 - 10:23 PM, said:

 

if so many people come to same conclusion it really makes you think

 

 

It makes you think in much the same way that realising many people have come to the conclusion that the Earth is 6,000 years old, makes you think.



TALENTSCOUT #55 Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:08 AM

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View PostTheDayWeDie, on 23 October 2018 - 06:20 AM, said:

 

Do you really think that WG business model is based only on pure luck?

 

Winning without any effort is same as toxic as losing without any reason. If you win too much without any effort has the same effect as losing too much no matter what you do: you will leave the game because it's boring.

 

The topic is about WG controling the winrate. I don't think they control it, I think they alter it according to their business plan. It's normal since WG is not some kind of church who has the main purpose to entertain someone for free.

 

Is roulette also not based on chance? Works fine to make money for the house.  

Edited by TALENTSCOUT, 23 October 2018 - 08:36 AM.


Mimos_A #56 Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:17 AM

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View Postuma_delicia, on 22 October 2018 - 11:23 PM, said:

 

if so many people come to same conclusion it really makes you think

 

 

It really does make you think. Mostly sad thoughts regarding where all this idiocy comes from.

Slyspy #57 Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:24 AM

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View PostTheDayWeDie, on 23 October 2018 - 06:35 AM, said:

 

Are you agree with me that noone would play/pay for a constant 10-20% winrate?

 

No, they wouldn't. Good job then that WG thought about this and set up their game to feature large teams and no repawns since this enables even the worst players to win ~40% while still allowing the best players to win  60+%. All the while the RNG and tier system allows everybody to have the "wow" moment of ammo racking someone or of having that big game (a concept somewhat undone by the template MM IMO). It does this naturally due to mathematics without any need for tampering with the system at all, rending your next point even more nonsensical than it already is. 

 

View PostTheDayWeDie, on 23 October 2018 - 07:20 AM, said:

 

The topic is about WG controling the winrate. I don't think they control it, I think they alter it according to their business plan. It's normal since WG is not some kind of church who has the main purpose to entertain someone for free.

 

They don't control it but they can alter it? What? You aren't even making sense.



jabster #58 Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:30 AM

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View PostSlyspy, on 23 October 2018 - 07:24 AM, said:

They don't control it but they can alter it? What? You aren't even making sense.

 

As far as I can it’s playing word games because they think it sounds better than saying it’s rigged. See also, it’s not a religion it’s a relationship.



Simeon85 #59 Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:40 AM

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It's funny that the OP didn't make the thread when he had the day of 75% win rate, that was all fine and dandy, but as soon as he has a bad day, suddenly WG are rigging. :D

 

It's almost like someone is whining because they lost games and can't accept that they had a role in that so look for some absurd reason as to why they lost.

 

Oh wait, that is exactly what it is.

 

 



SiliconSidewinder #60 Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:42 AM

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buddy this may be hard to accept but your brain is hardwired to search and find patterns.

Stuff like, when that star is in the right position the waters of the nile will rise.

a truely awesome ability with a flaw though, our brain can't handle random.

It will keep searching and eventually finding patterns even if there are non.

That's why you can see pictures in the clouds. it's not there but you see it non the less.

 

Same case here sometimes you win sometimes you loose.

 







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