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How random is "random" in crafting?

crafting rng random

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fishmask #1 Posted 30 December 2018 - 04:47 PM

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Hi, 

 

Just came back from holidays and decorating my wot xmas album.

I'm doing a bit of crafting to fill up level 3 ornaments. 

 

I have 11/16, 11/15, 9/13 and 11/17 of level 3 photos in the album (so roughly 33% missing), and I went to craft for more. 

For 720 shards I got 12 level 3 ornaments, none of those were new, so no new photos in the album. Statistically this is highly unlikely.

 

My question is, is crafting with dice symbol random or biased in some direction heavily. 

Also, when I'm crafting totally random ornament (all settings at random), should I get roughly even amount of level 1,2,3,4 and 5 ornaments?


Edited by fishmask, 30 December 2018 - 04:47 PM.


Soup_Potato #2 Posted 30 December 2018 - 05:01 PM

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Random is as random as random is.

 

There is although no point to try to fill the collections at this time. There is still a long time between now and the end of the holiday ops so you will get a lot of boxes. If you go for the completion of a set, do it on the last day.



unhappy_bunny #3 Posted 30 December 2018 - 05:10 PM

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Random is random, it does not mean an even spread over levels. It also means you have as much chance of getting an existing ornament as you have of getting a new one, possible eeven more chance. 

 

Think of a lucky dip barrel with 100 tickets.

You pull out tickets, check against your list, and then put the ticket back.

There is a chance that next dip you could get the same ticket. 

That is the way the crafting works. It does not remove ornaments from the pool.

So when you already have 66 ornaments (tickets), you stll have a 2 to 1 chance to get one of those 66 again. 

That is why, the more you narrow down the ornament you desire, the more shards it costs you. 



wEight_Tanker #4 Posted 30 December 2018 - 06:31 PM

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Random in WoT means Rigged. I never even dared crafting something randomly. Heck, I even got only 6 tier 5 decorations of all the small crates I've ever opened this year. I'm Level 10 festive. I only use the decorider or how it's called for 960 shards to finish up the tree.

TungstenHitman #5 Posted 30 December 2018 - 06:35 PM

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You'd have to ask the WG staff responsible since obviously no players here would know that. If there was manipulation to the honesty of this randomness for shards or even random battle construction, it's not like they'd tell you anyway so, drive on. 

1ucky #6 Posted 30 December 2018 - 06:41 PM

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It's totally random, but if you have to pay up every time you roll the dice, it obviously hurts not getting the results you want.

NUKLEAR_SLUG #7 Posted 30 December 2018 - 06:54 PM

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Don't craft things now. You've got two more weeks of small boxes to get that will fill up slots so you'll get duplicates of what you craft now. Wait into the last day and see what spaces you still have.

HassenderZerhacker #8 Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:07 AM

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View Postunhappy_bunny, on 30 December 2018 - 05:10 PM, said:

Random is random, it does not mean an even spread over levels. It also means you have as much chance of getting an existing ornament as you have of getting a new one, possible eeven more chance. 

 

Think of a lucky dip barrel with 100 tickets.

You pull out tickets, check against your list, and then put the ticket back.

There is a chance that next dip you could get the same ticket. 

That is the way the crafting works. It does not remove ornaments from the pool.

So when you already have 66 ornaments (tickets), you stll have a 2 to 1 chance to get one of those 66 again. 

That is why, the more you narrow down the ornament you desire, the more shards it costs you. 

 

no.

all wrong.

already last year the decos didn't have the same probability to drop. some are super rare.



Archaean #9 Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:13 AM

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*edited*

Edited by G_Bg_82, 31 December 2018 - 03:00 PM.
edited due to not constructive content.


SilentGaze #10 Posted 31 December 2018 - 11:56 AM

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View Postfishmask, on 30 December 2018 - 04:47 PM, said:

Hi, 

 

Just came back from holidays and decorating my wot xmas album.

I'm doing a bit of crafting to fill up level 3 ornaments. 

 

I have 11/16, 11/15, 9/13 and 11/17 of level 3 photos in the album (so roughly 33% missing), and I went to craft for more. 

For 720 shards I got 12 level 3 ornaments, none of those were new, so no new photos in the album. Statistically this is highly unlikely.

 

My question is, is crafting with dice symbol random or biased in some direction heavily. 

Also, when I'm crafting totally random ornament (all settings at random), should I get roughly even amount of level 1,2,3,4 and 5 ornaments?

 

​If crafting is random, you had about 8% chanse to get 1 new deco in 12 try,  You were unlucky, and maybe the 13th would have been new - or not.

SlyMeerkat #11 Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:10 PM

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Its random alright 

RamRaid90 #12 Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:20 PM

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The beauty of random is that people cannot conceive of the concept.

 

Random is exactly what it says on the tin. You'll randomly get one of the options.

 

You cannot ever prove that random isn't random from an outsider perspective. Human nature is to find an explaination which benefits your own preconceived notion.

 

If you believe something to be rigged, even if it is true random, it will always look rigged to you.



geoff99 #13 Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:20 PM

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View Post1ucky, on 30 December 2018 - 05:41 PM, said:

It's totally random, but if you have to pay up every time you roll the dice, it obviously hurts not getting the results you want.

 

View PostSlyMeerkat, on 31 December 2018 - 11:10 AM, said:

Its random alright 

 

Any evidence for those statements? Like the OP says, the distribution looks pretty rigged to me.

gunslingerXXX #14 Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:22 PM

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Probably its similar to "soon" being "soonTM"

 

My suggestion therefore is to use "randomTM" from now on. Can be used for other parts of the game as well, however opinions may vary.

 



RamRaid90 #15 Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:24 PM

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View Postfishmask, on 30 December 2018 - 03:47 PM, said:

Statistically this is highly unlikely.

 

Wrong. Statistically with true random getting 12 ornaments you already have has the same likelyhood as getting 12 brand new ones or 6 new and 6 already owned.

 

Your preconceived notion blinds you to this fact.

 

Also to answer the other part of your post. The higher up the tiers, the rarer the ornaments, that is why they are tiered. If they had the same chance of coming out there would be no need for a tier system.



geoff99 #16 Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:33 PM

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View PostRamRaid90, on 31 December 2018 - 11:24 AM, said:

 

Wrong. Statistically with true random getting 12 ornaments you already have has the same likelyhood as getting 12 brand new ones or 6 new and 6 already 

I dont agree. 

 

If you calculate the different permutations of getting new or old decorations, 12 times, there is only one way to get all old (old, old, old, etc)

 There are far more ways of getting a mixture of new or old ( old, new, new etc), (new, old  new etc).

 

I can provide a full proof later if its helpful. I have a BSc in Stats.

 

 



RamRaid90 #17 Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:40 PM

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View Postgeoff99, on 31 December 2018 - 11:33 AM, said:

 

I can provide a full proof later if its helpful. I have a BSc in Stats.

 

 

 

Then you need to go back and study again.

 

Just as in rolling a die, every number has the same chance of appearing. It's statistically the same chance to roll 6+6+6+6+6+6 as it is to roll 1+2+3+4+5+6 or any other combination

 

The fact is it is not cumulative in it's statistical probability.

 

If we simplify it down to make it easier:

 

Lets say you have 2 tier 1 ornaments that have the same chance of appearing out of the decorider.

 

It's a 50/50 chance to get either one of the ornaments.

 

You roll and get ornament 1.

 

Statistically on the next roll it is a 50/50 chance again to get either decoration, so the probability of getting the same Ornament 1 again is exactly the same as the probability that you'll get Ornament 2.


Edited by RamRaid90, 31 December 2018 - 12:46 PM.


jabster #18 Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:48 PM

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View PostRamRaid90, on 31 December 2018 - 11:40 AM, said:

 

Then you need to go back and study again.

 

Just as in rolling a die, every number has the same chance of appearing. It's statistically the same chance to roll 6+6+6+6+6+6 as it is to roll 1+2+3+4+5+6 or any other combination

 

The fact is it is not cumulative in it's statistical probability.

 

That’s not what the are saying. So to take your die roll example, there is a single permutation that gives all sixes whereas there are multiple permutations that give say half sixes and half ones.

RamRaid90 #19 Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:56 PM

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View Postjabster, on 31 December 2018 - 11:48 AM, said:

 

That’s not what the are saying. So to take your die roll example, there is a single permutation that gives all sixes whereas there are multiple permutations that give say half sixes and half ones.

 

But what they're failing to realise is how odds and random probability work.

 

Just because I say to you you have a 1/6  chance of rolling a 6, that doesn't mean if you roll the die six times you will get one 6.

 

You could roll it a hundred times and not get a 6, unlikely due to random chance but still a probability.

 

 



jabster #20 Posted 31 December 2018 - 01:01 PM

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View PostRamRaid90, on 31 December 2018 - 11:56 AM, said:

 

But what they're failing to realise is how odds and random probability work.

 

Just because I say to you you have a 1/6  chance of rolling a 6, that doesn't mean if you roll the die six times you will get one 6.

 

You could roll it a hundred times and not get a 6, unlikely due to random chance but still a probability.

 

 

 

And again that’s not what they said. To take the simple coin toss. Toss it twice and what’s the chance of two heads vs. one head and one tail?




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