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Unbeatable ?


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Ey_Devastor #1 Posted 10 January 2019 - 10:48 PM

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So guys I am here to tell you my story (basically I am here to cry).

 

I need 2 decorations to finish my collection, they are from the same group, the "snow structure" one, there is totally 3 decorations in this group and one I already have. So I tried to craft these 2 last decorations with a chance of 66,66% aaand here is the deal : I did it 6 times already and I still dont have any of those 2 that I need so I managed to craft the thing with 33% 6 times In a row :D 

 

If there is anyone who knows how to calculate the chance of this happening I would be more than happy to see the answer for this. ( I bet we are talking about number like 0, something)

 

Btw I dont know whats wrong anyway... at the start of holiday ops I bought lootboxes for 40€ so I paid for good rng... I dont understand...



Solstad1069 #2 Posted 10 January 2019 - 10:58 PM

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Correct me if im wrong, but if you push the empty spot in you decoration book it takes you directly to the craft machine with the correct settings?

Ey_Devastor #3 Posted 10 January 2019 - 11:05 PM

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Yes thats true but It just premade the settings of crafter for you

In this case it will choose: tier 5 decoration, christmass collection, snow structure

and there is 3 decorations in this categhory and its random which one it will choose

 



Lagalaza #4 Posted 10 January 2019 - 11:07 PM

    Warrant Officer

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Yep, Solstad1069 is correct.... that could have saved me a few duplications as well...

:facepalm:

 

 


Edited by Lagalaza, 10 January 2019 - 11:07 PM.


Element6 #5 Posted 10 January 2019 - 11:36 PM

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There are several people who have crafted 8 identical things in a row, myself included. There is no need to calculate the chance, the only way it would make sense is if you tried to predict it beforehand what sequence would appear. The chance is equal each time you press the button.

 

It's bias that we think these things are "close to impossible" because we forget to compare it to all other possibilities. 

 

1-1-2-1-3-1-3

has the exact same chance as

2-2-2-2-3-1-2






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