So I got 500 ornaments from boxes, and the results are:

Tier 5: 1

Tier 4: 17

Tier 3: 68

Tier 2: 148

Tier 1: 257

Ok, so what else is new, drop rate for T5 ornaments sucks badly. **BUT.** What is more worrying is there is a huge number of duplicates of same ornament, that statistically **shouldn't be there!**

For example, at tier 4 I had 4 duplicates of same ornament. If there's a 17/500 chance of getting a T4 ornament, and RNG is pure random, chance of getting four of the same T4 ornaments is (17 / 500 ) ^ 4 = 0,000013 - or about 1/750.000. Sounds probable? Correct, it's not.

What I think is happening: instead of building a "true random" (or technically "weighted random" I guess) RNG system where each ornament is pulled from a random list with single pull (probablility is adjusted so that each T5 ornament gets 1 ticket, each T1 ornament gets 99 tickets -> 1 ticket is pulled from total ticket list), guys at WG have build it like this: 1) Pull which tier -> 2) Pull which collection -> 3) Pull which of the T5 ornaments in that collection.

So, statistically "pull tier * pull collection * pull which T5 ornament" is still quite random. But, if your "1) pull tier, 2) pull collection" ends up in point "Tier=5, Collection=A", you are now about **3x more likely to pull the same ornament twice in same collection**, or about** 70x more likely to pull the same ornament four times in same collection** - since the chance for last pull is only about 1/18.

Even still, this "1-2-3" method still gives us only about 1/10.000 chance of pulling 4x same T4 ornaments, so I suspect there is also something funky about how the algorithm generates the random seed for running the RNG. It might be that only one seed is generated at the moment you click "open boxes", or something else that might give you same seed number more than once.

Someone who knows about statistics and coding true random RNG's might be able to explore this further.