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winrate vs WoT tank rating


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Geoffrey_Ironfist #1 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:09 PM

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After several 100s of battles I have noticed I have a few tanks with high WoT rating but 50% winrate performance. For example, I am better in the Grille than 92% of other players, in the SU85 I am better than 77% of all other players and in the PzIVA I am in the top few percent. They all have a 50% winrate. How can one rationalise this?

 

My first guess, is that winrate for some reason is close to random and asymptotes to 50% regardless of player skill level because teams are just random and may randomly occasionally have better players than you, unless your are truly exceptional. Another possibility is that most people tend to play in the tanks they do well with, so that for everyone on one team in a tank with a 75% WoT rating, there is likely to be someone in the opposite team in a matching tank, and if someone chooses a tank he is not very good at, so will a player in the opposite team on average, so that in the end the battles go 50%,

 

In which case, should one be happy to have a few tanks he is really good at in the knowledge he can nevertheless not do much to change the chances of a win?



Crashzi #2 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:16 PM

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You must really suck that you have to play against new players

OreH75 #3 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:23 PM

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Tank rating is over a selected period of time, winrate is based on all battles. So 92% on Grille means not many have play that tanked recently and your average performance is enough to outperform 92% of the other players that played it during the same period. 

Geoffrey_Ironfist #4 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:23 PM

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Crashzi, I would be happy to play against seasoned players, I am not excluding them. Are you implying that I will get a better winrate if I play at higher tiers?

 

OreH75, that's a good point but as far as I remember these 3 tanks had a winrate around 50% always. It has not been getting better.


Edited by Geoffrey_Ironfist, 14 January 2019 - 02:27 PM.


OreH75 #5 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:26 PM

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View PostGeoffrey_Ironfist, on 14 January 2019 - 02:23 PM, said:

I would be happy to play against seasoned players, I am not excluding them. Are you implying that I will get a better winrate if I play at higher tiers?

 

NO, I think your winrate will drop once you go past tier 5.

kaneloon #6 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:31 PM

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View PostGeoffrey_Ironfist, on 14 January 2019 - 01:23 PM, said:

Crashzi, I would be happy to play against seasoned players, I am not excluding them. Are you implying that I will get a better winrate if I play at higher tiers?

 

OreH75, that's a good point but as far as I remember these 3 tanks had a winrate around 50% always. It has not been getting better.

 

It is a completly different game, which needs to get used to. So who knows ? I really suck in low tiers and I find higher tiers easier.

You should give it a try.



Geoffrey_Ironfist #7 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:32 PM

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My winrate is actually quite good in tier VI tanks. It is similar on all tiers, it is not better on low tiers and worse on high tiers but it is actually about the best at tier VI which is the highest tier I have played so far. I do not think that can be the explanation. Of course, if I play for the first time on tier VIII, for the first few hundred battles facing tier X tanks I will not be doing well because I will not know those tanks. But I am already playing against players up to tier IX and my one and only tier VII tank has a WoT rating over 50% (currently better than 60% of other players in that tank).


Edited by Geoffrey_Ironfist, 14 January 2019 - 02:33 PM.


Unicorn_of_Steel #8 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:34 PM

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View PostCrashzi, on 14 January 2019 - 02:16 PM, said:

You must really suck that you have to play against new players

 

Thanks for your constructive contribution. There are people (including me) who find this an interesting question. If you don't, why bother reacting like this?



AngelofAwe #9 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:35 PM

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Don't know what a "tank WoT rating" is but I assume it's based primarily on something like how much damage you deal. Win rate depends more on if you damage the right targets at the right time than how much damage you deal in total. Shooting a useless tank that's not impacting the battle gives you damage but doesn't help you win.

Second factor would be that you might not have enough games in a tank for the WR to stabilize where you belong.

Third factor could be you've just been lucky with the damage and it's the WR that indicates your actual level. 

Fourth factor could be the tank is underpowered and the average win rate in it is below 50%. 

Edited by AngelofAwe, 14 January 2019 - 02:38 PM.


TheCrazyViking #10 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:42 PM

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It's a lot easier to have a good win rate in lower tier teams. Simply because there are a lot worse players on average in any given game. Most tier 10 players are very experienced with oftentimes 10k+ games.

Geoffrey_Ironfist #11 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:44 PM

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View PostAngelofAwe, on 14 January 2019 - 02:35 PM, said:

Don't know what a "tank WoT rating" is but I assume it's based primarily on something like how much damage you deal. Win rate depends more on if you damage the right targets at the right time than how much damage you deal in total. Shooting a useless tank that's not impacting the battle gives you damage but doesn't help you win.

Second factor would be that you might not have enough games in a tank for the WR to stabilize where you belong.

Third factor could be you've just been lucky with the damage and it's the WR that indicates your actual level. 

Fourth factor could be the tank is underpowered and the average win rate in it is below 50%. 

 

Considering I play mostly in TDs and mediums, I think I am most likely shooting the dangerous tanks.

2. I have over 200 games on those tanks I mentioned. Winrate has been fairly constant in those examples at least. In some cases it has improved closer to 50% after the crews got more skilled.

3. Maybe that has something to do with it but we are talking over 100s of battles. All tanks I tend to play have WoT rating above 50%.

4. I had thought of that, however all the tanks I get stats on at the end of the month  etc are doing better than average. Am I choosing all the worst tanks to play in? It could be. But - T34: 68% WoT rating, 50% winrate, maybe a bad tank? T34-85M 56% WoT rating, 50% winrate, the same?


Edited by Geoffrey_Ironfist, 14 January 2019 - 03:00 PM.


Balc0ra #12 Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:54 PM

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View PostGeoffrey_Ironfist, on 14 January 2019 - 02:09 PM, said:

After several 100s of battles I have noticed I have a few tanks with high WoT rating but 50% winrate performance. For example, I am better in the Grille than 92% of other players, in the SU85 I am better than 77% of all other players and in the PzIVA I am in the top few percent. They all have a 50% winrate. How can one rationalise this?

 

If you are talking about the personal rating on tanks in the hall of fame. It's not really a clear indication of anything tbh in most cases. I mean I played the ELC even 90 all December with a fresh crew to train up for the new tanks. I also took the rental crew from the tier 8 wheeled premium and trained those up, and a female Xmas commander with a fresh base crew. I still got a rating better than 71%. Most of the games were meh or terrible IMO due to the crews. So either I did better then I thought. Or everyone else played it worse that month vs before. 

 

As saying better then 77%, when you don't know how most above or below you perform vs the top 5% is a bit... difficult to make an assessment of why. It could be your teams, it could be you and how you react to situations. As doing damage is fine. But without knowing how you do said damage. Any pointers is not easy to make if you will. 

 

 

 



Geoffrey_Ironfist #13 Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:23 PM

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View PostBalc0ra, on 14 January 2019 - 02:54 PM, said:

 

If you are talking about the personal rating on tanks in the hall of fame. It's not really a clear indication of anything tbh in most cases. I mean I played the ELC even 90 all December with a fresh crew to train up for the new tanks. I also took the rental crew from the tier 8 wheeled premium and trained those up, and a female Xmas commander with a fresh base crew. I still got a rating better than 71%. Most of the games were meh or terrible IMO due to the crews. So either I did better then I thought. Or everyone else played it worse that month vs before. 

 

As saying better then 77%, when you don't know how most above or below you perform vs the top 5% is a bit... difficult to make an assessment of why. It could be your teams, it could be you and how you react to situations. As doing damage is fine. But without knowing how you do said damage. Any pointers is not easy to make if you will. 

 

 

 

 

So you are saying the player in the battle that has over 95% WoT rating in his tank, i.e. likely the single best player in the battle, may decide more battles and the rest of the players in a battle do not matter because their contribution is random? That is kind of rephrasing my own hypothesis. I am thinking along those lines.



kaneloon #14 Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:29 PM

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I think the gun marks are more instructive than whatever stats. If you one mark your tanks and stay over 65 % you are doing ok, two marks you are pretty good.

I meant on a regular basis, without a real try hard / help.

 



AngelofAwe #15 Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:48 PM

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Oh and I forgot option 5 - the tank ratings could increase based on how many games are played (like WG's PR) and there could be relatively few players that play as many battles as you do in them, which would rank better performing players "below" you. 

Edited by AngelofAwe, 14 January 2019 - 03:48 PM.


Geoffrey_Ironfist #16 Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:54 PM

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View PostAngelofAwe, on 14 January 2019 - 03:48 PM, said:

Oh and I forgot option 5 - the tank ratings could increase based on how many games are played (like WG's PR) and there could be relatively few players that play as many battles as you do in them, which would rank better performing players "below" you. 

 

Could be. It is hard to know what the unrepresented players do in their tanks, when they don't play them much. However, this would imply that really good players play some tanks for fewer than 200 battles then switch to another tank, whereas bad players stick to the same tank for a long time, over 200 battles, and it is mostly these bad players that are represented in the Hall of Fame tank ratings.

WhoCares01 #17 Posted 14 January 2019 - 04:02 PM

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View PostGeoffrey_Ironfist, on 14 January 2019 - 03:54 PM, said:

 

Could be. It is hard to know what the unrepresented players do in their tanks, when they don't play them much. However, this would imply that really good players play some tanks for fewer than 200 battles then switch to another tank, whereas bad players stick to the same tank for a long time, over 200 battles, and it is mostly these bad players that are represented in the Hall of Fame tank ratings.

 

That's only really true at higher tiers - at lower tiers many people will just grind through to unlock the next tank or elite the tank and sell it again. You have many tier 2 tanks with 200+ battles, someone that just want to grind through a line will usually have <10, and that often with bad crews, no equipment, ...

With coated optics and/or binocs, as well as a crew with situational awareness and sixth sense, you will have a hugh advantage over such people that just grind through a low tier tank, and many will do just that without investing into equipment and crews at tiers 1-3(/4).


Edited by WhoCares01, 14 January 2019 - 04:06 PM.


AngelofAwe #18 Posted 14 January 2019 - 04:04 PM

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View PostGeoffrey_Ironfist, on 14 January 2019 - 04:54 PM, said:

 

Could be. It is hard to know what the unrepresented players do in their tanks, when they don't play them much. However, this would imply that really good players play some tanks for fewer than 200 battles then switch to another tank, whereas bad players stick to the same tank for a long time, over 200 battles, and it is mostly these bad players that are represented in the Hall of Fame tank ratings.

 

That would be pretty accurate. Good players tend to quickly grind through low tiers with premium accounts and higher exp per battle, then sell the tank and buy the next in the line.
Especially when using free exp.
I got through T6 Italian and Polish tanks in about 40 games without using free exp and then sold the tanks. 

Edit: Actually most good players tend to skip the low tiers entirely depending on how much free exp they have. At least until T5 or T6. 

Edited by AngelofAwe, 14 January 2019 - 04:06 PM.


Balc0ra #19 Posted 14 January 2019 - 04:08 PM

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View PostGeoffrey_Ironfist, on 14 January 2019 - 03:23 PM, said:

 

So you are saying the player in the battle that has over 95% WoT rating in his tank, i.e. likely the single best player in the battle, may decide more battles and the rest of the players in a battle do not matter because their contribution is random? That is kind of rephrasing my own hypothesis. I am thinking along those lines.

 

More on it's more difficult to prove why you feel your WR is not reflecting the rating if that was your point. As that % is also dependent on how many games you have played in said tank, as the rating there is divided into groups based on battles played. And the 50+ group has more stock grinds with bad crews vs a 200+ one etc. 

 

View Postkaneloon, on 14 January 2019 - 03:29 PM, said:

I think the gun marks are more instructive than whatever stats. If you one mark your tanks and stay over 65 % you are doing ok, two marks you are pretty good.

I meant on a regular basis, without a real try hard / help.

 

 

Well yes and no. As that can be raised by sitting in base in a top tier HT farming enough damage/assist to get the % to go up. As well as moving out doing your role with the team. As staying above 65% on most tanks is not that demanding on mid tiers. 

 



Geno1isme #20 Posted 14 January 2019 - 04:22 PM

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If you're talking about the so called Hall of Fame rating, aka WTR, that's next to useless as a metric for various reasons:

- it excludes all players not meeting the minimum requirements for battle count

- it only accounts for battles played since December 2014

- like pretty much all metrics it doesn't account for balancing changes (this is esp. obvious with arties: as WTR accounts for stun damage you get very different results for battles before and after 9.18)

- while WG released the general formula for calculating WTR back then, they did not disclose the necessary factors for each tank, so we have no clue what results really influence the WTR of a given tank.

 

Also WG more or less abandoned their Hall of Fame, pretty much all tanks added this year and even some from last year are still missing (at least on the website, can't check the client atm).


Edited by Geno1isme, 14 January 2019 - 04:28 PM.





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