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This is absolutely ridiculous!


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Kabaluk2 #1 Posted 05 June 2019 - 11:39 PM

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T-44 3/18.

3 out of 18 battles. no matter how bad i am the game should average out the wins/losses, there are 15 man in a team! 
This is utterly ridiculous!

That'a a win in every 6 battles!

Good balance WG.



ValkyrionX #2 Posted 05 June 2019 - 11:41 PM

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47.74%

 

 

  •  

Edited by ValkyrionX, 06 June 2019 - 12:48 AM.


HugSeal #3 Posted 06 June 2019 - 12:00 AM

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18 whole battles of data!

 

Have you calculated the likelyhood of that?

 

Seriouly, you have no data to loom at and you were probably tilted and played worse than you usually do on top of that.



FrantisekBascovansky #4 Posted 06 June 2019 - 12:07 AM

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I played Rankeds couple days ago and lost 11 battles in a row, down 3 ranks. Can you beat that?

Balc0ra #5 Posted 06 June 2019 - 12:11 AM

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View PostKabaluk2, on 05 June 2019 - 11:39 PM, said:

there are 15 man in a team! 

 

That's correct. And what's the only common factor among those 15? WG can't change that factor. Sure you get fights where you can't win even if you do 5K damage in a tier 5. But not that often I suspect.

 

I'm guessing your T-44 is stock? 144 pen? So you have to play smart. Go for targets you can pen vs targets you can't. And how far back do you stay? Do you help your team fight their tier 8 meds, or do you wait until they are dead before you fire on them? As you average in it is a tad to low to make any impact.



thetartanbaron #6 Posted 06 June 2019 - 12:13 AM

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For every 3/18 there is someone with a 15/18. Its strange no one ever comes here boasting about winning streaks.

 

Your average damage has skyrocketed at exactly the same time as your win rate has taken a dive. Have you gone up a tier recently and are struggling?



Isharial #7 Posted 06 June 2019 - 12:20 AM

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As Balcora has already said, are you doing enough to offset the failing's of others on your team? After all its meant to be a team effort and you are one of the team. They aren't going to win every game for you, so you need to do your bit too.

 

 

Your playing Tier 8 at just 6000 games, do you know the maps well? are your crew good? do you have decent equipment on the tank? is it fully upgraded? all things that affect how you win and how often too.


 

15 people per team, yes, but 14 vs 15 if you personally did nothing and waited it out. That is enough to start a "snowball", and its simply harder and harder for others on your team to carry it to a victory, specially if you are one of the top tiers in the battle.


 

you win 47% of your battles overall.. that just says you aren't doing enough and/or rushing up the tiers. Remember one thing if anything: CREW. They are more important than going up a tier and make a far larger difference to what you can do than the new shiny tank ever will.


 



Dorander #8 Posted 06 June 2019 - 12:46 AM

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Sounds like a typical case of gambler's fallacy, the idea that just because team balance evens out in the big picture, any skewed data means the likelyhood of compensation increases. It doesn't. You having a loss streak doesn't mean wins are now due. Streaks get diluted over time, that goes for both winstreaks and loss streaks, so that they become less impactful. That won't happen in 18 battles, the smaller the sample size, the greater deviancy from the expected average can be seen.

Baldrickk #9 Posted 06 June 2019 - 01:06 AM

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View PostHugSeal, on 06 June 2019 - 12:00 AM, said:

18 whole battles of data!

 

Have you calculated the likelyhood of that?

 

Seriouly, you have no data to loom at and you were probably tilted and played worse than you usually do on top of that.

With his global win rate? about 1 in 20 sessions if he played 18 battles every time. - of getting exactly 3 wins.

 



Dorander #10 Posted 06 June 2019 - 01:09 AM

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View PostBaldrickk, on 06 June 2019 - 12:06 AM, said:

With his global win rate? about 1 in 20 sessions if he played 18 battles every time. - of getting exactly 3 wins.

 

 

Mathematistics strikes again!

 

... that word was inspired by whiskey. :hiding:



Baldrickk #11 Posted 06 June 2019 - 02:07 AM

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View PostDorander, on 06 June 2019 - 01:09 AM, said:

 

Mathematistics strikes again!

 

... that word was inspired by whiskey. :hiding:

I did cheat and use a binomial probability calculator.

I've forgotten how to do it by hand now. 



Stevies_Team #12 Posted 06 June 2019 - 02:10 AM

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Its a great tank

 

Build some crew skills with it and you'll have a ball



LordMuffin #13 Posted 06 June 2019 - 07:39 AM

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View PostKabaluk2, on 05 June 2019 - 11:39 PM, said:

T-443/18.

3 out of 18 battles. no matter how bad i am the game should average out the wins/losses, there are 15 man in a team! 
This is utterly ridiculous!

That'a a win in every 6 battles!

Good balance WG.

Depending on how bad you are, it will average out to a winrate which corresponds your influence over battles.

You just need more battles.

06:45 Added after 6 minutes

View PostBaldrickk, on 06 June 2019 - 02:07 AM, said:

I did cheat and use a binomial probability calculator.

I've forgotten how to do it by hand now. 

It is not that hard.

You take (n choose k)×p^(k)×q^(n-k).

It might be q^n though.

And use sums if you want a spread of wins. 


Edited by LordMuffin, 06 June 2019 - 07:47 AM.


PowJay #14 Posted 06 June 2019 - 08:22 AM

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First of all, YES. It is entirely possible to do as badly as you have. Despite doing 1147HP of average damage (which is not great, but not terrible) in my Skorpion G, I have won only 10 from 43 battles in it. That's a hard-hitting TD with a powerful gun, but for a player with a positive WR and a great track record in TDs, do you think that is right? Well for one thing I can't play it, but do you think my team should have carried me to 50% WR in it instead of 23%? Nope.

 

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, OP, but you are not a great player. So many absolutely terrible players come here to complain that it is the fault of WG and everyone else on the team that they lose. Guess what? It isn't. It's yours.


It is generally reckoned here on the forums that you can go AFK and win about 44% of your battles. At tier IX, and in X in particular, it is even possible to get around 35% WR because you have taken on the responsibility of being top tier in EVERY battle and you simply cannot do well enough to win. I have seen players with very good win rates in lower tiers and very respectable damage rates in tier X still have negative win rates here. But that is not the point.

 

So you can win 44% just doing nothing. Those are the battles where your team manages without you. Your Internet connection has lagged, your PC is so slow that you didn't get into battle for five minutes, someone came to the door and you didn't play. Your team can win about 44% of the time when this happens.


To get greater than 44%, you have to make a difference.


In fact, I recall TWO battles where ONE player complained about team balance at the start of battle and suicided. I am utterly convinced that we would have won BOTH battles with that one extra tank- providing they had actually achieved something. Both battles were so close that that one should have made a difference. I was livid.


So that one could be YOU. It could be YOU making difference and winning the battle alongside your team.


The problem is that YOU do not do enough work to make up the gap from 44% to 50%. You do not live long enough to carry a battle to the end. Your survival rate is 17.51% You have played 6198 battles. You have won 2955 and lost/drawn 3243 battles. You have survived 1085.


So let us assume that you were destroyed in EVERY losing battle. You may have survived a draw, or a cap win, but let us say that you did not. That means that the 1085 battles you did survive were all wins. You have survived just over 36% of your winning battles.

 

Comparing this to my figures, for example, I have played 38458. I have won 20200. I have survived 10846. Using the same example as above- Which I KNOW is NOT true- that I died in every losing battle and draw (which I did not) then I have survived 53% of my winning battles.


OK. We can get real here and admit that I have survived draws, and I have survived lost battles with base cap- and the odd Assault battle as well many years ago. But just pretending that BOTH of us have died in EVERY SINGLE LOST battle then I have survived 53% of those wins to your 36%.

 

Do you know what this means? It means I was alive more often when we won. I was killing the last enemy tanks. I was capping base for the win. I was resetting our base cap and destroying the enemy. YOU were DEAD!

 

You could have been that player that made the difference, but you were a destroyed, smoking wreck 64% of the time.

 

I have only had a very quick look at your stats for your most-played vehicles. Your SU-100 has 421 HP average damage. My SU-100 has 803 average damage. My tier IV Marder 38T has 563 HP average damage.

 

Your Jagdpanther has 609 HP average damage. Mine has 1120 HP average. My tier V StuG III G has 629 average damage.

 

You seem to like TDs, as do I, but you are about two tiers behind me on your average damage.


There is your problem, my friend. You do not work hard enough for the win. If you think that the problem is your team, well sometimes you are right. Yesterday I was the ONLY player on my team with a positive win rate. Everyone else had negative win rates as low as 42-45%. I was top on damage with a tier V TD in a tier VI battle with over 2x my own HP in damage. So I did well. My team- not so well. Second battle again. Tier V TD, tier VI battle. Top on damage. Lost. Third battle also against tier VI. Third on damage in a tier V TD. Lost.

 

In the afternoon I was on the winning side and yet I did very little that was useful. That was my team doing well without me. I had a terrible afternoon and didn't even manage 3rd Class Master Tanker in several wins. I was playing some of my non-keeper tanks, but I was not doing well. My team carried my backside for most of the afternoon.


So I lost some doing well, and I won some playing not-so-well. It's when YOU can make the difference between winning and losing that it all comes good. If you can't do that, then expect to lose more than you win.

View PostIf_I_Die_You_Die_Too, on 06 June 2019 - 01:10 AM, said:

Its a great tank

 

Build some crew skills with it and you'll have a ball

 

You don't have the T-44. You have never played the regular T-44.
 

 

EDIT. I looked at the wrong numbers. It surprised me that I'd survived so many battles but no-one else noticed. :D


Edited by PowJay, 11 June 2019 - 09:18 AM.


arthurwellsley #15 Posted 06 June 2019 - 08:43 AM

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View PostKabaluk2, on 05 June 2019 - 10:39 PM, said:

T-44 3/18.

3 out of 18 battles. no matter how bad i am the game should average out the wins/losses, there are 15 man in a team! 
This is utterly ridiculous!

That'a a win in every 6 battles!

Good balance WG.

 

1. T44 is one of the all round best tier VIII mediums, not great at anything but decent at most things.

 

2. The OP has played 24 battles in his T44  with an average experience per battle of 442, and so the experience so far gained in it is 10,608. This tank is being played stock I would imagine, without the OP unlocking modules using free exp.

 

3. Over those 24 battles the OP has managed a win rate of 29.17%. While his overall account win rate is 47.68%. So either (a) he is incredibly bad with this tier VIII medium, or (b) he is doing badly in it presently as it is stock and as he unlocks the modules his stats in it will improve.

 

4. The OP is averaging 454,92 damage per game in the T44. The stock gun on the T44 is the 85 mm D5T-85BM. That gun has penetration of 144/194/44 so without liberal use of the two key the 144 pene is going to limit engagements to the side and rear of many tanks faced. Damage is 180 for this gun, and so the OP is probably managing three penetrating shots per game in his 24 battles to average 454 damage per game.

 

5. OP needs to stay alive longer in the T44 to land more damaging shots. If the OP tried to get his damage average per game up to 850 I reckon the teams he was on would win more often. If the OP got his damage per game up to 1,000 per game then his win rate would probably rise above 50% in the T44.

 

6. Dear OP if you do less damage per game than the health pool of your own tank you are a liability to teams, and will more often than not be dragging other players to a loss because you are not making sufficient a contribution to the team effort.

 

7. T44 has 1,200 health. You OP are managing 454 damage average per game. Can you see why you might be causing your teams to lose more often than the other fourteen players would normally lose?


Edited by arthurwellsley, 06 June 2019 - 08:47 AM.


AliceUnchained #16 Posted 08 June 2019 - 06:32 PM

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View PostBaldrickk, on 06 June 2019 - 02:07 AM, said:

I did cheat and use a binomial probability calculator.

I've forgotten how to do it by hand now. 

 

Ah yes, those were the days... I did not have some fancy calculator in high school to assist with probability, I had to write out all the formulas and calculate by hand (I did have a basic TI one, but usually preferred to do multiplication and division by myself). Required a lot more paper than the others, and more time than most, but it did help in gaining a much better understanding of the math involved. 

Shad0wize #17 Posted 08 June 2019 - 06:39 PM

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What's up with everybody complaining about lose streaks.

 

We all get them, just play better you'll eventually get over them. Or play an actual decent game for a change.



NekoPuffer_PPP #18 Posted 08 June 2019 - 07:18 PM

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View PostKabaluk2, on 05 June 2019 - 11:39 PM, said:

3 out of 18 battles. no matter how bad i am the game should average out the wins/losses, there are 15 man in a team!

 

Uh...bro, wait, stop for a moment.

 

Think about what you just said eh?

 

No matter how "bad" you are, the game "should balance out" the wins/losses?

 

No! That's your job! Oh my goodness... :facepalm:



unhappy_bunny #19 Posted 08 June 2019 - 07:29 PM

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View PostKabaluk2, on 05 June 2019 - 10:39 PM, said:

T-44 3/18.

3 out of 18 battles. no matter how bad i am the game should average out the wins/losses, there are 15 man in a team! 
This is utterly ridiculous!

That'a a win in every 6 battles!

Good balance WG.

 

You are right of course. It is utterly ridiculous.

Ridiculous to assume the other other 14 players in your team can carry you to victory, no matter how bad you play.

 



Robbie_T #20 Posted 09 June 2019 - 04:05 AM

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Happends to everyone...

Last weeks had a good average.....

This week its bin bad....probberly due to the Dday event....that bring out the worst players in gaming history!

And i really dont understand why they keep comming back they dont understand the game even basic tactics (saw some unbelievble sh*t this week again...)

So yeah all the winrate progress that i made the week before got ruined in 3 hours time...just grp after grp of pure trash....8-1 ahead you die leave battle .....and than see that you lost the battle and you see in the result the 43% winrate guys ruined it bigtime again in a tier 8-10 battle....

 

so from 4 to 8 jun its bin 18%,22%,51%,36%,38% +that i am grinding my tanks..so in some tanks its hard to contribute a lot for the team...

While the week before that it was 69%,54%,61%55% 

 






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