Seems legit....

totally not rigged. The chance of that happening is *drumrolls*: 1,52587891 × 10^{-5 -}

^{Thats something like 0.0000015 percent.}

Started by HundeWurst, Aug 22 2019 11:10 AM

41 replies to this topic

Seems legit....

totally not rigged. The chance of that happening is *drumrolls*: 1,52587891 × 10^{-5 -}

^{Thats something like 0.0000015 percent.}

i agree with you i've encutered the same things is not realizable that cant be make something like progressive ido 1 def and after is sure 1 attack

Max I had was three defences last night....I say max, but that was enough I logged.

HundeWurst, on 22 August 2019 - 11:10 AM, said:

Seems legit....

totally not rigged. The chance of that happening is *drumrolls*: 1,52587891 × 10^{-5 -}

^{Thats something like 0.0000015 percent.}

For reference to the OP's argument.

5 defences in a row = around 1 in 33 probability

10 defences in a row = less than 1 in a 1000 chance

15 defences in a row = less than 1 in 33 000 chances

Buy lottery ticket ?

PS: Yes, there is a difference between what i wrote and the OP did, one of us made a mistake (probably me), no ... it doesn't matter because the order of magnitude is still silly.

**Edited by VarzA, 22 August 2019 - 11:30 AM.**

HundeWurst, on 22 August 2019 - 11:10 AM, said:

Seems legit....

totally not rigged. The chance of that happening is *drumrolls*: 1,52587891 × 10^{-5 -}

^{Thats something like 0.0000015 percent.}

So having calculated the mathematical chance that an event can happen you then conclude from that the only reasonable explanation is "rigging" despite having predetermined what the mathematical chance is...

Well that's just genius.

No, but the game is NOT rigged. How can you say that? Everything is fine, you love this game, give more money, just do it. Today I thought I'd buy a tank I already own with a coupon so I would get gold with 15% discount so I can free XP T110E5... I can't. Maybe I will. I don't know. I'm spending too much on this game. And I feel horrible because its such a waste of money and time.

Yeah, sometimes it's just..insane. Tin foil hat aside, it is easy to win for attackers, but for me personally

I get thru ranks faster when defending, even had a game yesterday when attackers where so bad

they took only ABC..it was hard to get beyond captain.

Of topic, those reserves made things a lot better.

ITS. NOTHING. TO. DO WITH. WINNING. ITS . ABOUT. GETTING. TO. GENERAL. HOW. MANY. [edited]. TIMES. FFS.

Because you're reading the wrong bit....you need to look at the Rank you achieved, and your progress towards the next prestige level. Nothing else matters, except maybe the battle duration (should be approx. 26 minutes....anything less means one of the teams doesn't know how to play the mode).

HundeWurst, on 22 August 2019 - 11:10 AM, said:

Seems legit....

totally not rigged. The chance of that happening is *drumrolls*: 1,52587891 × 10^{-5 -}

^{Thats something like 0.0000015 percent.}

It's rigged because it happened? Thus, your way to stop it appearing rigged, is to WG have to code the game to stop it happening?

Outliers are inevitable if enough instances occur.

SharpBlue, on 22 August 2019 - 12:21 PM, said:

In every round I tell them at the start, and during the battle to remember, it's about getting General, not about objectives.

When on Assault I say they shall not go for the objectives if they are not General.

On defense I tell them to let attack cap when the time runs low.

But nope, whenever possible, some people push to end the battle early, and way to often they are successful

Every mathematical probability will happen at some point in a random system.

Fact.

**Edited by RamRaid90, 22 August 2019 - 06:38 PM.**

VarzA, on 22 August 2019 - 10:29 AM, said:

For reference to the OP's argument.

5 defences in a row = around 1 in 33 probability

10 defences in a row = less than 1 in a 1000 chance

15 defences in a row = less than 1 in 33 000 chances

Buy lottery ticket ?

PS: Yes, there is a difference between what i wrote and the OP did, one of us made a mistake (probably me), no ... it doesn't matter because the order of magnitude is still silly.

Assuming a 50% chance to get defense or offense, it's the same math as a coinflip: 0.5^n where n is the streak you're looking for. So:

5 in a row: 0.5^5 = 0.03125 or 3.125% or 1 in 32.

10: 0.5^10 = 0.000977 or just under 0.1%, or 1 in 1024.

15: 0.5^15 = 0.0000305 or 0.00305%, or 1 in 32768.

So your math is actually pretty accurate. So is OP's incidentally as he calculated a streak of 16, which ends up at 0.000015 or 1 in 65536.

The question one should ask is how many Frontline games have actually been played and then calculate the probability of such an unlikely event as 16 defenses in a row happening at least once in that number of games. In all likelyhood, THAT number is going to be far higher.

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