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WhoIsTheMaster #1 Posted 10 September 2019 - 09:48 AM

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hello, fellow tankers.

I have serious question. Have you experienced the same?
I have made quite much statistics last few months and it seems to me, that here are bad days and good days in some sort of mathematical order. I seriously watched replais and took notes.
Let me go into the details.

When I am haveing "bad day" period. It does'nt matter how good your team is or how goodly I behave. Its lost 8times out of 10.
It seems hard to hit enemy. Other tank may be fully visible. I am fully aimed and still missed or no penetration. Often missle flies directly to enemy and then seems to turn before enemy for some "magnetic field" like cause. Its clearly seen with fully enhanced sniper mode.
I played with Wf auf Pz.IV, You know, this is extremly accurate tank. I did stand still, fully aimed and I did shoot 4-5 shots to E75 from aprox 350-400m distance. E75 was about 75% visible. Neither to say all shots where totally missed. In very same game I was last one standing. We where side hugging with vk100 heavy. He had just made shot and my loading had came to end. I had loaded HE. We both had something like less than 200 lifepoints. I had loaded. And I shoot hes side. It did'nt pen. Furhemore. It instead bounced and I did kill myself...
Few days ago I played TP53. I still have bassic cannon, but it still has good peneration rate. I was shooting amx 75 light tank. You know this has really bad armour. Well, he was above me, less than 10m propably. I did shot hes under bottom(deffinetly not front bottom) with sniper mode. It was 50% visible. Quess what... it did'nt penetrate, I did absolutely nothing to that tank. Non pen to lights by my heavy, is occouring really offten.
And there are third occasion. Shot by enemy when fully hidden. I know that there are windows and some cracks in walls sometimes, and you can shoot me from there, but I have several times get hit or even dead from directions where it should be impossible. I know that theres no hack this kind possible, so I am not going to blame other player but still detracking or slightly touching heavy tank should not make any killpoints.
They where tree examples, that accour really often.

And then there are good days.
No matter how bad my team is(Yes I use xvm by wotlab), I win 8 games out of 10. I may behave really baddly. Often my team is so efficient, and I am so slow(heavy tank, TD) and carefull that I have no opportunity to shoot enemy at all.
And when I do have to shot at enemy, its like magic. Every hit will pen. I can slightly touch enemy and it still makes damage. I have made dmg when it should be impossible.
For example. I tried to detrack t95 with tp53, you know it has so thick front armour that it is quite impossible to pen by any tank. And then theres me with my "good day" and 8 tier tank. I aim to detrack and boom, I made some average dmg with ordinary shell shooting the front of t95. :O Never know that it was even possible.
Once I did shoot strv 103 with my Wf auf, when he was visible on map, but in reality he was behind the curve 100%. And quess what. I shoot and my shells trajectory bent over the curve and I did kill him. I did hit him basically like arty makes shots. Theese are the ocasions when I think- wow, this guy has "bad day" period going on propably.
Theres lots of weird things that should not be possible in good days. Like I block shots from other Japan heavy or some brutal TD's.
When in bad day's its even hard to hit enemy with full aim etc, then in good day I can hit and make damage to long distance enemey just while driveing around and not wait for aiming at all.


As I say'd I have made real life notes for these. Good or bad day period is never more than 3 days long and it never shorter than two days.
And as I am playing all the time same- same strategy, same tanks, same places. Good days are always for winning and bad days are allways for looseing.
 

Edited by WhoIsTheMaster, 10 September 2019 - 09:56 AM.


Stevies_Team #2 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:03 AM

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I do believe that there is "game management" present in WoT and the RNG influences events towards certain overall objectives

 

RNG decides

 

Had an amazing banana shot straight into a lower plate yesterday

 

And if you hate arty drive russian tonks, there seems to be more dispersion when arty shoots at a russian tonks

Arty seems to know this and picks other nations tonks if there's a choice of tonks to shoot at

If that first shot displays "special dispersion values" arty shifts away from you to find another victim


Edited by If_I_Die_You_Die_Too, 10 September 2019 - 10:40 AM.


WilhelmII #3 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:04 AM

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I am of the same opinion, one other thing I hate is Formula for working out MOE there I was in my TD Killed 4, 2.7K damage dealt MOE raised by 0.12, then in other TD one of the slow ones that is continually moving trying to keep up with the battle so to get some shots in, but no, No Damage Given or Taken, no shots fired, and MOE drops by 3.23. ??????? you tell me?

Edited by WilhelmII, 10 September 2019 - 10:05 AM.


kubawt112 #4 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:06 AM

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It would be fun to see some replays, though from experience shell tracers can be really iffy - and don't always reflect the actual path of a shell. I can recognize that it would look 'rigged' when a shell seemingly curveballs into an enemy tank's cupola.

Shooting over hilltops, well, shells do drop over large distances, and the terrain rendering isn't always 100% accurate. If you can get an autoaim lock without directly seeing the target, certain guns (not limited to artillery) would allow you to 'lob' shells without LOS - and a large-calibre TD could likely overmatch large parts of an enemy tank. In other words, if you hit a pixel whose armor is <3x the calibre of your gun (firing AP/APCR), you'll penetrate. That alone is the source of many 'weird' penetrations on tanks.

 

Things like these sound strange, but to me it's like rolling a dice. Sometimes there's a lucky streak, other times there's not. Thing is, does it make sense for WG to 'rig' games for/against players? It certainly makes sense to keep the RNG, because it provides some ups and downs regardless of how bad/good you are at the game. It does add something to the game, that's for sure. Don't really need any system to it, as long as it has effect often enough.



Pagon1s #5 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:07 AM

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View PostWhoIsTheMaster, on 10 September 2019 - 09:48 AM, said:

hello, fellow tankers.

I have serious question. Have you experienced the same?
I have made quite much statistics last few months and it seems to me, that here are bad days and good days in some sort of mathematical order. I seriously watched replais and took notes.
Let me go into the details.

When I am haveing "bad day" period. It does'nt matter how good your team is or how goodly I behave. Its lost 8times out of 10.
It seems hard to hit enemy. Other tank may be fully visible. I am fully aimed and still missed or no penetration. Often missle flies directly to enemy and then seems to turn before enemy for some "magnetic field" like cause. Its clearly seen with fully enhanced sniper mode.
I played with Wf auf Pz.IV, You know, this is extremly accurate tank. I did stand still, fully aimed and I did shoot 4-5 shots to E75 from aprox 350-400m distance. E75 was about 75% visible. Neither to say all shots where totally missed. In very same game I was last one standing. We where side hugging with vk100 heavy. He had just made shot and my loading had came to end. I had loaded HE. We both had something like less than 200 lifepoints. I had loaded. And I shoot hes side. It did'nt pen. Furhemore. It instead bounced and I did kill myself...
Few days ago I played TP53. I still have bassic cannon, but it still has good peneration rate. I was shooting amx 75 light tank. You know this has really bad armour. Well, he was above me, less than 10m propably. I did shot hes under bottom(deffinetly not front bottom) with sniper mode. It was 50% visible. Quess what... it did'nt penetrate, I did absolutely nothing to that tank. Non pen to lights by my heavy, is occouring really offten.
And there are third occasion. Shot by enemy when fully hidden. I know that there are windows and some cracks in walls sometimes, and you can shoot me from there, but I have several times get hit or even dead from directions where it should be impossible. I know that theres no hack this kind possible, so I am not going to blame other player but still detracking or slightly touching heavy tank should not make any killpoints.
They where tree examples, that accour really often.

And then there are good days.
No matter how bad my team is(Yes I use xvm by wotlab), I win 8 games out of 10. I may behave really baddly. Often my team is so efficient, and I am so slow(heavy tank, TD) and carefull that I have no opportunity to shoot enemy at all.
And when I do have to shot at enemy, its like magic. Every hit will pen. I can slightly touch enemy and it still makes damage. I have made dmg when it should be impossible.
For example. I tried to detrack t95 with tp53, you know it has so thick front armour that it is quite impossible to pen by any tank. And then theres me with my "good day" and 8 tier tank. I aim to detrack and boom, I made some average dmg with ordinary shell shooting the front of t95. :O Never know that it was even possible.
Once I did shoot strv 103 with my Wf auf, when he was visible on map, but in reality he was behind the curve 100%. And quess what. I shoot and my shells trajectory bent over the curve and I did kill him. I did hit him basically like arty makes shots. Theese are the ocasions when I think- wow, this guy has "bad day" period going on propably.
Theres lots of weird things that should not be possible in good days. Like I block shots from other Japan heavy or some brutal TD's.
When in bad day's its even hard to hit enemy with full aim etc, then in good day I can hit and make damage to long distance enemey just while driveing around and not wait for aiming at all.


As I say'd I have made real life notes for these. Good or bad day period is never more than 3 days long and it never shorter than two days.
And as I am playing all the time same- same strategy, same tanks, same places. Good days are always for winning and bad days are allways for looseing.
 


Yes



Dorander #6 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:10 AM

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Want to share the actual data and point out what the formula for the supposed mathematical order is? 'cause any random system is going to have clustering, if it doesn't, it most probably isn't random but forced into an alternating pattern. For example, which of these two sequences looks more random to you?

 

W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L

or:

W/W/L/W/L/L/W/W/L/L//L/L/L/W/W/L/W/L/L/L/W



Only_Slightly_Bent #7 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:24 AM

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Here we go again...

Gremlin182 #8 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:24 AM

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I believe its all completely random because firstly there would be nothing to gain for wargaming and secondly it would be impossible to implement.

If something determined that I would have a bad day then it would also have to only match me up with others on a bad day and against all those on a good day.

 

Try logging game results get a note pad "yes im old school" log wins and losses each day you play when you his 100 games see how the balance looks then keep going.

It will even out over time

 



Only_Slightly_Bent #9 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:26 AM

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View PostGremlin182, on 10 September 2019 - 09:24 AM, said:

I believe its all completely random because firstly there would be nothing to gain for wargaming and secondly it would be impossible to implement.

If something determined that I would have a bad day then it would also have to only match me up with others on a bad day and against all those on a good day.

 

Try logging game results get a note pad "yes im old school" log wins and losses each day you play when you his 100 games see how the balance looks then keep going.

It will even out over time

 

But... But... Something about greed, forcing (at gun point?)  the player to spend money and a derogatory statement about Russia and/or communism...



Bordhaw #10 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:28 AM

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View PostWhoIsTheMaster, on 10 September 2019 - 08:48 AM, said:

hello, fellow tankers.

I have serious question. Have you experienced the same?
I have made quite much statistics last few months and it seems to me, that here are bad days and good days in some sort of mathematical order. I seriously watched replais and took notes.
Let me go into the details.

When I am haveing "bad day" period. It does'nt matter how good your team is or how goodly I behave. Its lost 8times out of 10.
It seems hard to hit enemy. Other tank may be fully visible. I am fully aimed and still missed or no penetration. Often missle flies directly to enemy and then seems to turn before enemy for some "magnetic field" like cause. Its clearly seen with fully enhanced sniper mode.
I played with Wf auf Pz.IV, You know, this is extremly accurate tank. I did stand still, fully aimed and I did shoot 4-5 shots to E75 from aprox 350-400m distance. E75 was about 75% visible. Neither to say all shots where totally missed. In very same game I was last one standing. We where side hugging with vk100 heavy. He had just made shot and my loading had came to end. I had loaded HE. We both had something like less than 200 lifepoints. I had loaded. And I shoot hes side. It did'nt pen. Furhemore. It instead bounced and I did kill myself...
Few days ago I played TP53. I still have bassic cannon, but it still has good peneration rate. I was shooting amx 75 light tank. You know this has really bad armour. Well, he was above me, less than 10m propably. I did shot hes under bottom(deffinetly not front bottom) with sniper mode. It was 50% visible. Quess what... it did'nt penetrate, I did absolutely nothing to that tank. Non pen to lights by my heavy, is occouring really offten.
And there are third occasion. Shot by enemy when fully hidden. I know that there are windows and some cracks in walls sometimes, and you can shoot me from there, but I have several times get hit or even dead from directions where it should be impossible. I know that theres no hack this kind possible, so I am not going to blame other player but still detracking or slightly touching heavy tank should not make any killpoints.
They where tree examples, that accour really often.

And then there are good days.
No matter how bad my team is(Yes I use xvm by wotlab), I win 8 games out of 10. I may behave really baddly. Often my team is so efficient, and I am so slow(heavy tank, TD) and carefull that I have no opportunity to shoot enemy at all.
And when I do have to shot at enemy, its like magic. Every hit will pen. I can slightly touch enemy and it still makes damage. I have made dmg when it should be impossible.
For example. I tried to detrack t95 with tp53, you know it has so thick front armour that it is quite impossible to pen by any tank. And then theres me with my "good day" and 8 tier tank. I aim to detrack and boom, I made some average dmg with ordinary shell shooting the front of t95. :O Never know that it was even possible.
Once I did shoot strv 103 with my Wf auf, when he was visible on map, but in reality he was behind the curve 100%. And quess what. I shoot and my shells trajectory bent over the curve and I did kill him. I did hit him basically like arty makes shots. Theese are the ocasions when I think- wow, this guy has "bad day" period going on propably.
Theres lots of weird things that should not be possible in good days. Like I block shots from other Japan heavy or some brutal TD's.
When in bad day's its even hard to hit enemy with full aim etc, then in good day I can hit and make damage to long distance enemey just while driveing around and not wait for aiming at all.


As I say'd I have made real life notes for these. Good or bad day period is never more than 3 days long and it never shorter than two days.
And as I am playing all the time same- same strategy, same tanks, same places. Good days are always for winning and bad days are allways for looseing.
 

 



4nt #11 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:39 AM

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Hooray, Weekend again!

 

Dammit, twice in a row. I guess friday bottle can be taken tuesday, too, since next shift is next week.
 


Edited by 4nt, 10 September 2019 - 10:40 AM.


TankkiPoju #12 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:41 AM

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Yes.

 

When you log into the game, you will either win or lose.


Edited by TankkiPoju, 10 September 2019 - 10:42 AM.


Balc0ra #13 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:50 AM

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If you have a bowl of the exact same amount of green and red M&M's. And pick blind each day.  Some days will you pick more red "bad days", the next day will be more of the other "bad day". It's not like you only get a red blow one day because WG says so. Even if you play well. Even if you do all the right things... it will happen. Even with the perfect MM or "non-rigged". The odds of you picking way more reds will still not go away. 

 

 

View PostWhoIsTheMaster, on 10 September 2019 - 09:48 AM, said:


And as I am playing all the time same- same strategy, same tanks, same places. Good days are always for winning and bad days are allways for looseing.

 

I mean you said you did take notes. But did you take notes on where you hit the tanks and check the armor value etc to learn from it? As you used HE vs a VK. Yes WT has high HE pen on both guns. But no splash. And the VK has enough armor and gaps on the side to nullify some of that. So did you check to see where you hit it and the value there? So you know not to hit it there again with HE? Or what about the AXM? Was it a shot past the tracks? As did it hit the front or rear wheel? As that wheel at the right impact angle. It can even absorb a TS-5 shot.

 

If you feel you make the same gun mistake... or get rigged the same way with some guns vs some targets. Use sites like tank.gg and check. No point blaming on rigged RNG if you can't even pen it with a 25% high roll even where you aimed. And then just see where you should aim instead if you have a weird angle.


Edited by Balc0ra, 10 September 2019 - 11:08 AM.


Bora_BOOM #14 Posted 10 September 2019 - 10:59 AM

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View PostDorander, on 10 September 2019 - 09:10 AM, said:

Want to share the actual data and point out what the formula for the supposed mathematical order is? 'cause any random system is going to have clustering, if it doesn't, it most probably isn't random but forced into an alternating pattern. For example, which of these two sequences looks more random to you?

 

W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L

or:

W/W/L/W/L/L/W/W/L/L//L/L/L/W/W/L/W/L/L/L/W

 

And AFAIK the probability of getting any of the two is the same (granted that the length of the sequence is the same, although your second line has three more results, but lets us ignore that).

Also, not getting W W W W W W W W W... or L L L L L L L L L L ... would mean something is controlled/alternated.

 

How does it look to us is actually irrelevant, and that is how bias is born.

 

The only certain thing is that skill influences the result in the long term. When bad/average player gets a good streak and wins 55% of the battles he is "having luck" while a unicum with an average 60% WR would consider that as a bad streak.



jabster #15 Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:03 AM

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Care to share those notes and why you think there’s a mathematical order to them?

Edited by jabster, 10 September 2019 - 11:04 AM.


malachi6 #16 Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:13 AM

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Look up confirmation bias, evidence, critical thinking and post hoc fallacy.  



Steiner011 #17 Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:14 AM

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View PostWhoIsTheMaster, on 10 September 2019 - 08:48 AM, said:

hello, fellow tankers.

I have serious question. Have you experienced the same?
I have made quite much statistics last few months and it seems to me, that here are bad days and good days in some sort of mathematical order. I seriously watched replais and took notes.
Let me go into the details.

When I am haveing "bad day" period. It does'nt matter how good your team is or how goodly I behave. Its lost 8times out of 10.
It seems hard to hit enemy. Other tank may be fully visible. I am fully aimed and still missed or no penetration. Often missle flies directly to enemy and then seems to turn before enemy for some "magnetic field" like cause. Its clearly seen with fully enhanced sniper mode.
I played with Wf auf Pz.IV, You know, this is extremly accurate tank. I did stand still, fully aimed and I did shoot 4-5 shots to E75 from aprox 350-400m distance. E75 was about 75% visible. Neither to say all shots where totally missed. In very same game I was last one standing. We where side hugging with vk100 heavy. He had just made shot and my loading had came to end. I had loaded HE. We both had something like less than 200 lifepoints. I had loaded. And I shoot hes side. It did'nt pen. Furhemore. It instead bounced and I did kill myself...
Few days ago I played TP53. I still have bassic cannon, but it still has good peneration rate. I was shooting amx 75 light tank. You know this has really bad armour. Well, he was above me, less than 10m propably. I did shot hes under bottom(deffinetly not front bottom) with sniper mode. It was 50% visible. Quess what... it did'nt penetrate, I did absolutely nothing to that tank. Non pen to lights by my heavy, is occouring really offten.
And there are third occasion. Shot by enemy when fully hidden. I know that there are windows and some cracks in walls sometimes, and you can shoot me from there, but I have several times get hit or even dead from directions where it should be impossible. I know that theres no hack this kind possible, so I am not going to blame other player but still detracking or slightly touching heavy tank should not make any killpoints.
They where tree examples, that accour really often.

And then there are good days.
No matter how bad my team is(Yes I use xvm by wotlab), I win 8 games out of 10. I may behave really baddly. Often my team is so efficient, and I am so slow(heavy tank, TD) and carefull that I have no opportunity to shoot enemy at all.
And when I do have to shot at enemy, its like magic. Every hit will pen. I can slightly touch enemy and it still makes damage. I have made dmg when it should be impossible.
For example. I tried to detrack t95 with tp53, you know it has so thick front armour that it is quite impossible to pen by any tank. And then theres me with my "good day" and 8 tier tank. I aim to detrack and boom, I made some average dmg with ordinary shell shooting the front of t95. :O Never know that it was even possible.
Once I did shoot strv 103 with my Wf auf, when he was visible on map, but in reality he was behind the curve 100%. And quess what. I shoot and my shells trajectory bent over the curve and I did kill him. I did hit him basically like arty makes shots. Theese are the ocasions when I think- wow, this guy has "bad day" period going on propably.
Theres lots of weird things that should not be possible in good days. Like I block shots from other Japan heavy or some brutal TD's.
When in bad day's its even hard to hit enemy with full aim etc, then in good day I can hit and make damage to long distance enemey just while driveing around and not wait for aiming at all.


As I say'd I have made real life notes for these. Good or bad day period is never more than 3 days long and it never shorter than two days.
And as I am playing all the time same- same strategy, same tanks, same places. Good days are always for winning and bad days are allways for looseing.
 




mpf1959 #18 Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:36 AM

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Win or loose. Is it decided when you logg into?

 

In your individual case I can confirm your suspicions are true.

Don't ask me to explain, I took a large bribe to remain silent. :girl:



Laukaus #19 Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:51 AM

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WholsTheMaster, answer is YES. But more important would be to know, WHY is that so. 

WhoIsTheMaster #20 Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:57 AM

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Notes are hand written to paper(I am bit old school by myself to, I am 28). They where'nt meant to be showed to anyone, and I started collecting data without correct strategy, so they are like real mess that is hard to undrestand especially to non estonian speaker....
And I do not collect replays. My paper written data is unproven without proper video evidence. After every update there is no easy way to replay them anymore (yes I know that you can install old patches).
No, I did'nt take notes where I actuaaly shot the VK100. I can only know that it was side, but witch sector actually... Yes I know that for some tanks whole side does not have same armour, there are angles because of axles and suspension etc. But vk100 has one solid side, and I have never had experienced the thing that I am unable to pen the side of VK100.00 even ordinary shell. 

Why I think that there is mathematical order? Well, in computeing, everithing is made with complex mathemathics. Computer is not some human kind of thing that can make wrong decisions. It only makes decisions on formulas that it has given by programmer. Computer can make wrong decisions only then when computer is haveing wrong input data(by programmer) or there where some system failure like we had last(?) week, where EU server crashed and nobody where rewarded in any way.

I am not mad because I loose some times. I am mad that it clearly seems that some days I am undeservedly favored and another day theres vise verca. Why favoring one or another? Anyway this has led me to conclusion that I will skip the days when it seems to be "bad day" period. And only play when there seem to be good days. Lets see, does my rateing got highter after that. If so, It will prove my point.

Edited by WhoIsTheMaster, 10 September 2019 - 11:59 AM.





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