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"Loot boxes always worth their price"?

holiday ops 2019 loot boxes christmas

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RaphlCopter #1 Posted 11 December 2019 - 06:26 PM

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So if I buy 75 boxes for 100€, I get (minimum) 250 gold each, right? That's only 75*250=18750. If I buy gold just by itself in the shop, I get 30395 for the 100€.

Is the rest that's going to be in the boxes actually going to amass to 11645 gold (that would be 41,18€ if bought just like that)? If I get super extra unlucky and always only get 1 day of premium in each box, I get 18750 gold + 75 days of premium.

90 days cost 27,45€, I'd be 15 days short and paid 13€ more.

 

TL;DR: worst case scenario spending 100€

75 boxes: 75*250 gold + 75*1 day of premium = 18750 gold + 75 days of premium for 99,99€

shop: 21450 gold for 72,41€ 90 days if premium for 27,45€ 

So you'd be 15 days of premium and 2700 gold short.

 

Can someone explain to me how the boxes always contain at least their own value? Did I get some numbers wrong or something? To me right now it looks like you'll get super f'ed if you're unlucky all the way through. I really considered buying that bundle but now I'm hesitating a lot, to be honest. Please, someone, show me where I made a mistake in my thoughts and calculations.

 

Edit: the smallest bundle barely makes a net positive: 3 boxes for 6€, 750 gold is 3,28€, 3 days of premium is 2,85€, so you'd be just about at 6,13€. And that's only because buying premium time and gold in that small amount is ridiculously expensive

 

Edit 2: the first edit made me think: are those boxes valued by themselves not as a bundle if bought so? I mean as if you bought everything one by one? You'd make a big net positive if you buy 75 boxes as a 100€ bundle and compare it to single purchases for gold and premium days!
That would make 75/2*500 = 18750 gold for 2,25€ per transaction = 84,38€ + 75 * 1 day of premium for 1,09€ per transaction = 81,75€; so that would make 166,13€). If that's true, the entire loot box thing would look more like scam or false advertisement to me than anything else. I know that this is the worst case scenario but there will be players having this much bad luck and the boxes are sold as "always being worth their price" and this doesn't look like always to me at all. 

 

PS: I want to be this fair, after complaining about the possibly terrible value:
I opened 75 (magic) boxes (for the amazing tangerine camo) and got the following (with the cheapest possible prices as well, since I was complaining about that so much; rounded values): 

26k gold = 87 Euros

50 days of premium = 27 Euros (14 days x3 + 7days x1)
3D-Styles: Obj 140, Obj 430U, AMX 13 105, T110E4, JPE100, E100 (value is not really 6k gold, but they're nice)

Sexton I, Bretagne Panther, Sherman Firefly, Panzer III K (not going to play them ever, I guess, but there you go)

And in the wonderful, beloved and amazing box number 48: Obj 703-II = 40 Euros usually

So all in all I got 157 Euros worth of stuff that's worth it for me plus some low tier premiums and 3D-styles for 100€

 


Edited by RaphlCopter, 13 December 2019 - 02:33 PM.


GH0571N45H3LL #2 Posted 11 December 2019 - 06:31 PM

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1 box £5.05 

500 gold £4.93

 

1 box = 250gold + 100k credits = 500gold

That's a worse case box, because l don't value 100k credits as =250gold. 

WG does though.. 

 

£5.05 on 250gold and 100k credits or £4.93 on 500gold

 

Savings/discounts only start to come in if you buy bundles of boxes 50+

 

..but, do you really wanna do that 

 

So.. Low amount of boxes your better off maybe just buying gold straight up, if that's all you want. 

 

 

 

 


Edited by GH0571N45H3LL, 11 December 2019 - 06:43 PM.


BravelyRanAway #3 Posted 11 December 2019 - 06:43 PM

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Because everything has a monetary value....including credits and premium tanks.

In 2017 for my €100, I got in return approx €160 of Gold, credits, low tier premium tanks and premium days.

In 2018 for my €100, I got in return approx €300 of Gold, credits, T8 and T5 premium tanks and premium days......still have 298 days of premium left from that.



SovietBias #4 Posted 11 December 2019 - 06:47 PM

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It's dodgy accounting : 

 

Using the example you stated and pricing each day of premium time as if it was bought individually (1.09€ ) , 75 days would be worth ~81€. Now turn that into gold and there you go 'you always get at least their value in gold'.


Edited by SovietBias, 11 December 2019 - 06:48 PM.


RaphlCopter #5 Posted 11 December 2019 - 06:47 PM

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View PostGH0571N45H3LL, on 11 December 2019 - 05:31 PM, said:

1 box = 250gold + 100k credits = 500gold

That's a worse case box, because l don't value 100k credits as =250gold. 

WG does though.. 

 

Yeah but I wanted to use things that I could apply a value from the shop to, that's why I chose the one day of premium. I totally agree though.

 

View PostBravelyRanAway, on 11 December 2019 - 05:43 PM, said:

Because everything has a monetary value....including credits and premium tanks.

In 2017 for my €100, I got in return approx €160 of Gold, credits, low tier premium tanks and premium days.

In 2018 for my €100, I got in return approx €300 of Gold, credits, T8 and T5 premium tanks and premium days......still have 298 days of premium left from that.

 

Yeah, I just mean that you could be that unlucky to have a net loss. And they said that couldn't be the case. That's why I'm a bit confused. I know that on average you'll get more than you pay for but what about those unlucky ones that don't? That shouldn't be a thing because then it would actually be gambling if you could lose and yeah... everybody knows everyone's opinion on that.

 

17:49 Added after 1 minute

View PostSovietBias, on 11 December 2019 - 05:47 PM, said:

It's dodgy accounting : 

 

Using the example you stated and pricing each day of premium time as if it was bought individually (1.09€;) , 75 days would be worth ~81€. Now turn that into gold and there you go 'you always get at least their value in gold'.

 

Well, in the calculation above I used the best value you could get - you'd make a net loss by a lot. And in the calculation below I deliberately chose the worst deals to go for and that way is the only way to make them "always worth their price": by applying the worst prices you could possibly get.



Orkbert #6 Posted 11 December 2019 - 06:53 PM

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View PostRaphlCopter, on 11 December 2019 - 06:26 PM, said:

 

 

Can someone explain to me how the boxes always contain at least their own value? Did I get some numbers wrong or something?

 

 

 

Well, for starters you seem to assume that the level V Chirstmas decoration has no worth at all.

 

Granted, you can't buy them separately so we got no actual price tag to compare with, so it is entirely up to you if the loot boxes are worth it for you or not.



SovietBias #7 Posted 11 December 2019 - 06:57 PM

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View PostRaphlCopter, on 11 December 2019 - 05:47 PM, said:

 

 

Well, in the calculation above I used the best value you could get - you'd make a net loss by a lot. And in the calculation below I deliberately chose the worst deals to go for and that way is the only way to make them "always worth their price": by applying the worst prices you could possibly get.

 

Well, indeed. I believe you've answered the question raised in the OP.



RaphlCopter #8 Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:00 PM

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View PostSovietBias, on 11 December 2019 - 05:57 PM, said:

 

Well, indeed. I believe you've answered the question raised in the OP.

 

So they only keep their premise to be worth it if you apply the worst prices you could get? I cannot believe that, why would everybody go crazy about how good they are then?



SovietBias #9 Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:04 PM

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View PostRaphlCopter, on 11 December 2019 - 06:00 PM, said:

 

So they only keep their premise to be worth it if you apply the worst prices you could get? I cannot believe that, why would everybody go crazy about how good they are then?



I believe the majority don't go crazy about how good they are. But I remember this discussion the first time loot boxes appeared, and it was clear by then that you could not use the best rates of €/gold to judge the offers.



nakkipeppu #10 Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:13 PM

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Everything kinda goes nuts when you start comparing just about anything to the volume discount you get when you purchase premium account - which is has to have because it's basically perishable good. If you buy a year, most of your prem account is basically wasted anyway, and is 100% consumed in a year whether you wanted it or not, so the price has to compensate for that. But whatever gold you buy now, you'll retain the same utility for it in a year.

 

I imagine if WG sold premium account as activateable tokens, you'd see similar 20%-30% discounts for 100€ packages than you do with gold or boxes now.

 

 



Erwin_Von_Braun #11 Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:22 PM

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Truthfully, the answer is yes AND no.

They are worth nothing more, or less, than you are willing to pay for them.



A_Salt_Pig #12 Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:27 PM

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View PostErwin_Von_Braun, on 11 December 2019 - 06:22 PM, said:

Truthfully, the answer is yes AND no.

They are worth nothing more, or less, than you are willing to pay for them.

Is that not true for everything in life ? even sprouts or turnips perhaps



BravelyRanAway #13 Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:28 PM

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View PostRaphlCopter, on 11 December 2019 - 06:00 PM, said:

 

So they only keep their premise to be worth it if you apply the worst prices you could get? I cannot believe that, why would everybody go crazy about how good they are then?

Why not read through last years announcement thread to get an idea of the value return of buying 75 boxes..... http://forum.worldoftanks.eu/index.php?/topic/693323-large-boxes-now-available/#topmost 



Schepel #14 Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:30 PM

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Factor in the gold you get for premium tanks you already own and you will make a profit. You don't even have to find a T8 premium in those 75 boxes, although you most likely will. (Based on the topic 'what did you get' from alst year.)

Erwin_Von_Braun #15 Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:33 PM

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View PostA_Salt_Pig, on 11 December 2019 - 06:27 PM, said:

Is that not true for everything in life ? even sprouts or turnips perhaps

Definitely.

Although I haven't paid for sprouts in years (pretty good at growing my own).

Trouble is, some genius had the idea of wrapping them in bacon - now I have to pay for bacon:ohmy:

Turnips - maybe in a nice beefy stew.


 


 



SoupFork #16 Posted 11 December 2019 - 08:01 PM

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View PostRaphlCopter, on 11 December 2019 - 06:26 PM, said:

So if I buy 75 boxes for 100€, I get (minimum) 250 gold each, right? That's only 75*250=18750. If I buy gold just by itself in the shop, I get 30395 for the 100€.

Is the rest that's going to be in the boxes actually going to amass to 11645 gold (that would be 41,18€ if bought just like that)? If I get super extra unlucky and always only get 1 day of premium in each box, I get 18750 gold + 75 days of premium.

90 days cost 27,45€, I'd be 15 days short and paid 13€ more.

 

TL;DR: worst case scenario spending 100€

75 boxes: 75*250 gold + 75*1 day of premium = 18750 gold + 75 days of premium for 99,99€

shop: 21450 gold for 72,41€ 90 days if premium for 27,45€ 

So you'd be 15 days of premium and 2700 gold short.

 

Can someone explain to me how the boxes always contain at least their own value? Did I get some numbers wrong or something? To me right now it looks like you'll get super f'ed if you're unlucky all the way through. I really considered buying that bundle but now I'm hesitating a lot, to be honest. Please, someone, show me where I made a mistake in my thoughts and calculations.

 

Edit: the smallest bundle barely makes a net positive: 3 boxes for 6€, 750 gold is 3,28€, 3 days of premium is 2,85€, so you'd be just about at 6,13€. And that's only because buying premium time and gold in that small amount is ridiculously expensive

 

Edit 2: the first edit made me think: are those boxes valued by themselves not as a bundle if bought so? I mean as if you bought everything one by one? You'd make a big net positive if you buy 75 boxes as a 100€ bundle and compare it to single purchases for gold and premium days!
That would make 75/2*500 = 18750 gold for 2,25€ per transaction = 84,38€ + 75 * 1 day of premium for 1,09€ per transaction = 81,75€; so that would make 166,13€). If that's true, the entire loot box thing would look more like scam or false advertisement to me than anything else. I know that this is the worst case scenario but there will be players having this much bad luck and the boxes are sold as "always being worth their price" and this doesn't look like always to me at all. 


Ignore, I misread your post.


Edited by SoupFork, 11 December 2019 - 08:03 PM.


Steeleye_Spam #17 Posted 11 December 2019 - 08:57 PM

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It's a fallacy. Unless you were going to buy everything you 'win ', then you are basically spending money for stuff you didn't need or want. I don't understand the psychology of people who say ' I won twice the monetary value of what i spent'. If you wouldn't have bought it anyway, then no, you haven't.



BravelyRanAway #18 Posted 11 December 2019 - 09:35 PM

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View PostSteeleye_Spam, on 11 December 2019 - 07:57 PM, said:

It's a fallacy. Unless you were going to buy everything you 'win ', then you are basically spending money for stuff you didn't need or want. I don't understand the psychology of people who say ' I won twice the monetary value of what i spent'. If you wouldn't have bought it anyway, then no, you haven't.

That is true if you have no interest in Premium time or Gold which are the backbone of the WoT economy, which just happens to be the main filler in the boxes.


Edited by BravelyRanAway, 11 December 2019 - 09:35 PM.


Schepel #19 Posted 11 December 2019 - 09:55 PM

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View PostSteeleye_Spam, on 11 December 2019 - 08:57 PM, said:

It's a fallacy. Unless you were going to buy everything you 'win ', then you are basically spending money for stuff you didn't need or want. I don't understand the psychology of people who say ' I won twice the monetary value of what i spent'. If you wouldn't have bought it anyway, then no, you haven't.

 

That is true.

 

However, I for one am looking to buy gold.



Bulldog_Drummond #20 Posted 11 December 2019 - 11:00 PM

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Oooh, are loot boxes on sale now?

(Tough luck for Belgians)






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