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Loot Box - showing drop rates?

Loot Box Drop rate Law

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Ratriq #1 Posted 12 December 2019 - 07:20 AM

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Just out of curiosity do Wargaming show their drop rates on the loot boxes? Cause I just remembered there was some kind of law or legalisation about game companies having to reveal their drop rates on the loot boxes, don't really remember how the law worked but it affected major game publishers such as Blizzard and EA.
And if I remember correctly WG doesn't show their drop rates.

So, if they don't, how come they getting away with not showing the drop rates showing? 

1ucky #2 Posted 12 December 2019 - 07:32 AM

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Look, just be one of the first loot box buyers, and you will get some nice drop. If you buy boxes some weeks later, the big tanks will probably not drop as much. It doesn't matter if someone officially proclaims some drop rate, if there is no way to prove that it's true. Also, even if you were to learn some true drop rate, maybe it's still just a temporary one. Because at the end of the day it's just software, and it could at any time be updated/changed.

dd_keky #3 Posted 12 December 2019 - 08:02 AM

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View PostRetroCh1cken, on 12 December 2019 - 06:20 AM, said:

Just out of curiosity do Wargaming show their drop rates on the loot boxes? Cause I just remembered there was some kind of law or legalisation about game companies having to reveal their drop rates on the loot boxes, don't really remember how the law worked but it affected major game publishers such as Blizzard and EA.
And if I remember correctly WG doesn't show their drop rates.

So, if they don't, how come they getting away with not showing the drop rates showing? 

We are not in Japan and China i think, where they have those % shown next to items inside boxes. But i heard that you have like 10% to get tier 8 tank in each box, but dont get fooled that in 10 boxes you will get tank. Also i think that odds aint even stacking : 1 box 10% -> 2nd 10% + 10% of 1st and so on



Zmago5000 #4 Posted 12 December 2019 - 08:03 AM

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View Postdd_keky, on 12 December 2019 - 08:02 AM, said:

... But i heard that you have like 10% to get tier 8 tank in each box, ...

 



the_nebuchadnezzar #5 Posted 12 December 2019 - 09:25 AM

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View Postdd_keky, on 12 December 2019 - 07:02 AM, said:

We are not in Japan and China i think, where they have those % shown next to items inside boxes. But i heard that you have like 10% to get tier 8 tank in each box, but dont get fooled that in 10 boxes you will get tank. Also i think that odds aint even stacking : 1 box 10% -> 2nd 10% + 10% of 1st and so on

I don`t know what the „winning a tier 8“ procent is, but I can tell you from my own experience that the chances are pretty damn high. Last year I got around 35 boxes and get the Defender, IS3A, Skorpion G and all the small tier tanks. Plus 3 skins for b-c 25t, T57Heavy and IS7....



shortfuse1418 #6 Posted 12 December 2019 - 09:32 AM

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Don't believe the hype. 40 boxes last year, 20,000 gold, all the skins, 4x T4 tanks and lots of multiples plus the e25 that I was after. No tier 8s at all. Drop rate was pretty low, I have been rewatching last years loot crate opening videos.QB had 2 x T8 in the first 50 then none for the next 100. Ended up with 4 after 200 boxes.

Catn1p #7 Posted 12 December 2019 - 09:55 AM

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View Post1ucky, on 12 December 2019 - 07:32 AM, said:

Look, just be one of the first loot box buyers, and you will get some nice drop. If you buy boxes some weeks later, the big tanks will probably not drop as much. It doesn't matter if someone officially proclaims some drop rate, if there is no way to prove that it's true. Also, even if you were to learn some true drop rate, maybe it's still just a temporary one. Because at the end of the day it's just software, and it could at any time be updated/changed.

^this^

Last year I bought 11 boxes at day1 and got the e25. The year before, 11 boxes at day1 and got the Skorpion G.



Lemmingtrain #8 Posted 12 December 2019 - 09:56 AM

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Can people stating what they won in previous years say when they bought their loot boxes - first day, second week etc.  It'll be interesting if there is any pattern to good drops.

krismorgan #9 Posted 12 December 2019 - 10:25 AM

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Bought boxes in first couple of days,got defender,is3a,few e25`s,skorp which i already had and lots of mid tier junk,gold ,creds and prem days.

Geno1isme #10 Posted 12 December 2019 - 10:26 AM

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View PostCatn1p, on 12 December 2019 - 10:55 AM, said:

^this^

Last year I bought 11 boxes at day1 and got the e25. The year before, 11 boxes at day1 and got the Skorpion G.


Which means absolutely nothing. That day1 theory is just for tinfoil-hat wearers.



Catn1p #11 Posted 12 December 2019 - 10:29 AM

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View PostGeno1isme, on 12 December 2019 - 10:26 AM, said:


Which means absolutely nothing. That day1 theory is just for tinfoil-hat wearers.

Boo-hoo. What do you expect, scientific proof perhaps? Don't ignore the fuzzy logic of the forum hive-mind.


Edited by Catn1p, 12 December 2019 - 10:29 AM.


jabster #12 Posted 12 December 2019 - 10:35 AM

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View Post1ucky, on 12 December 2019 - 06:32 AM, said:

Look, just be one of the first loot box buyers, and you will get some nice drop. If you buy boxes some weeks later, the big tanks will probably not drop as much. It doesn't matter if someone officially proclaims some drop rate, if there is no way to prove that it's true. Also, even if you were to learn some true drop rate, maybe it's still just a temporary one. Because at the end of the day it's just software, and it could at any time be updated/changed.

 

A few people did look at this last year and although what they did wasn't overly rigorous there didn't seem anything underhand going. Would I be surprised if WoT had explored modifying the drop rate either individually or to the playerbase as a whole, not really as you can see the attraction for companies. Do I think is justified to believe they are currently doing this, no.

 

There is some interesting for information out there concerning a company touting it's technology for automatically identifying spenders and then modifying there in-game experience (as  example is lootboxes) to keep them spending. Currently that seems to be targeted at the mobile game industry but you can certainly see why that would also be of interest to the PC market place.



RockyRoller #13 Posted 12 December 2019 - 11:06 AM

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I believe you see more drops in the first few days is because more people are opening them, it's a kind of illusion the loot is frequent when the reality is more boxes were opened making the base RNG number cycle faster WG end.

 

I learned RNG is not random with computers, they need some base number to start with then a maths formula (code) to give you a figure in the range they set. It is the base number they try to randomise. In C64 games the base was taken from what keyboard keys had been use. That was the era I learned about how RNG was derived and no doubt coders use another base.

 

Another limit that effects frequency might be just how many tanks are being allowed to be won.

 

In the end you can't really affect the odds WG holds all the cards. So if you buy a box think of only ever getting the very basic win on all the boxes and better is a totally unexpected bonus. Spend accordingly, your Born to Lose.

 



CmdRatScabies #14 Posted 12 December 2019 - 12:31 PM

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View PostRetroCh1cken, on 12 December 2019 - 07:20 AM, said:

So, if they don't, how come they getting away with not showing the drop rates showing? 

Possibly because they are pushing the line that it isn't gambling - all boxes contain value equal to what you spend (if you use WG maths). 



24doom24 #15 Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:29 PM

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View Postthe_nebuchadnezzar, on 12 December 2019 - 08:25 AM, said:

I don`t know what the „winning a tier 8“ procent is, but I can tell you from my own experience that the chances are pretty damn high. Last year I got around 35 boxes and get the Defender, IS3A, Skorpion G and all the small tier tanks. Plus 3 skins for b-c 25t, T57Heavy and IS7....

View Postdd_keky, on 12 December 2019 - 07:02 AM, said:

We are not in Japan and China i think, where they have those % shown next to items inside boxes. But i heard that you have like 10% to get tier 8 tank in each box, but dont get fooled that in 10 boxes you will get tank. Also i think that odds aint even stacking : 1 box 10% -> 2nd 10% + 10% of 1st and so on

Based on a pretty big spreadsheet that was made last year each box had about a 1% to 1.5% chance of dropping a tier 8. 

 

 

View Post1ucky, on 12 December 2019 - 06:32 AM, said:

Look, just be one of the first loot box buyers, and you will get some nice drop. If you buy boxes some weeks later, the big tanks will probably not drop as much. It doesn't matter if someone officially proclaims some drop rate, if there is no way to prove that it's true. Also, even if you were to learn some true drop rate, maybe it's still just a temporary one. Because at the end of the day it's just software, and it could at any time be updated/changed.

My advice would be to wait for all the CCs to open their 200 boxes and post their results.

 


Edited by 24doom24, 12 December 2019 - 01:29 PM.


Pvt_Duffer #16 Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:58 PM

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View PostGeno1isme, on 12 December 2019 - 09:26 AM, said:


Which means absolutely nothing. That day1 theory is just for tinfoil-hat wearers.

Except for what appeared to to be the bug that meant type 59 being given out like candy

Something like if it gave you a dupe then it picked another one you did not have ISTR; result type 59s everywhere.

 

Never confirmed, but anecdotally, less type 59s dropped after the first couple of days. 

 



Bordhaw #17 Posted 12 December 2019 - 06:13 PM

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View PostRetroCh1cken, on 12 December 2019 - 06:20 AM, said:

So, if they don't, how come they getting away with not showing the drop rates showing? 

 

They are not "loot boxes" so no they won't. 



Nishi_Kinuyo #18 Posted 12 December 2019 - 06:16 PM

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View PostBordhaw, on 12 December 2019 - 06:13 PM, said:

They are not "loot boxes" so no they won't. 

They're surprise mechanics, and I am not aware of which countries mandate the listing of the exact percentages.



pecopad #19 Posted 12 December 2019 - 06:30 PM

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View PostBordhaw, on 12 December 2019 - 06:13 PM, said:

 

They are not "loot boxes" so no they won't. 

 

Lure boxes then.... and I think drop rates are mandatory for sony, microsoft and nintendo systems... from August 2019


Edited by pecopad, 12 December 2019 - 06:32 PM.


snowlywhite #20 Posted 12 December 2019 - 06:32 PM

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View PostLemmingtrain, on 12 December 2019 - 09:56 AM, said:

Can people stating what they won in previous years say when they bought their loot boxes - first day, second week etc.  It'll be interesting if there is any pattern to good drops.

 

the odds of doing something like variable drop rate are pretty nil. It's a billions usd company.

 

one pissed off employee leaves and starts posting... It'd trigger such a shitstorm, the risk would never be worth it. Plus they're Belarus + Cyprus; so terribad for any EU regulator from the start. Pull a stunt like this and if it surfaces...






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