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Profitability Of Large Loot Boxes


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Martinjozo #1 Posted 18 December 2019 - 04:10 AM

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Hi guys,
I wanted to address the myth regarding profitability of buying loot boxes for gold and premium days.

Since no one is touching this subject i decided to say something about it.

 

DISCLAIMER: This topic is not addressing credits, garage slots, styles and decorations, and shitty low tier premium tanks that are collecting dust in the garage nor T8 premium tanks that u have 1.5% chance of getting that comes in the loot boxes. (Nor it is addressing lucky few whose opening results are in the edges of "Normal distribution".) Adding all of that up does bring up their value. This topic is about (in my opinion) majority of the players that are rational and don't want to spend 100+€ on one game event but are willing to spend some to get good deal for gold and premium (and maybe a new t8 tank) cause everyone is saying this is the best event to get gold and premium.


The Point

It has become "common knowledge" that buying any amount of loot boxes in the Christmas event is the best way to get the most premium days and gold for everyone. 
Well, that's just not true!

 

They do become very profitable in that sense after buying certain amount of them so they start repeating, or by the player that already have most loot box tanks (especially low tier ones), but if you don't own those tanks already (or at least half of them), then buying less than 75 loot boxes is jut not profitable. You get bigger bang for your buck buying the current special "The cherry on top" (that is not that special) than buying 25 loot boxes. (I'll elaborate that later...)


How did this myth start?

WG did a nasty manipulation and gave all the Community contributors who already had the vast majority (if not all) of loot box tanks a large amount of 200 boxes to open them publicly. That combination provides the most bang for your buck and of course, when you draw the line after that (regarding gold and premium time) loot boxes seam to be the best deal ever! 
I doubt that ccs knew that is was a well planned bait, but i have no doubts that WG did.

 

Some statistics and some basic math

Based on the statistics of very large number of opened boxes (more 25k) from last year and by very similar results on a much smaller, but still relevant data provided by skill4ltu youtube video (link is set to the part of the video that shows those stats) from this year we can set some expected values:

 

Average gold per box (not including duplicate tanks): 340

Average premium days per box: 0.71

Average chance for low tier: 11.7%

Average chance for tier 8 prem tank: 1.3%

 

So if you are a player buying the loot boxes and having no premium tank from loot boxes you can expect this:

3 boxes: 1020 gold, 2 prem days, 31% chance of getting low tier tank and 3.85% chance of t8 tank

11 boxes: 3740 gold, 8 prem days, 75% chance of getting at least one low tier, 13.5% chance of t8 tank

25 boxes: 8500 gold, 18 prem days, 95% chance of getting at least one low tier (or 77% of getting 2 or more), 28% chance of t8 tank

 

In any event, there is a negligible chance of getting 2 of the same tanks so you don't get gold compensation.

Calculations get more favorable (and complicated) the more boxes you buy afterwards and the more tanks you had prior of opening them.

My point is that you can get more value if you buy 5500 gold for the same price of 11 boxes, or even better: 30 day of premium and 7k gold from "The cherry on top" special insted of: 8.5k gold and 18 day prem from 25 loot boxes for 30% less money. Loot boxes are ok/good for an average player but far from great deal.

 

Regards,
Martinjozo

 

 



1ucky #2 Posted 18 December 2019 - 06:43 AM

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If you wanted to say that buying a few boxes is a worse deal than buying a lot of them, that's true but also obvious for multiple reasons including up to 33% price discount advertised in the prem shop.

 

Also, the premium tank drops are actually worth something, as are the bonuses from atmosphere level plus large decorations, and also you can get camo styles by completing albums... Doesn't seem like you've taken that into account.

 

#BadStudy



gunslingerXXX #3 Posted 18 December 2019 - 06:53 AM

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Its an event for big spenders. Thats fine imo. 

 

Also my compliments for the clear explanation, for some it will (could) be helpful. 

 

Edit: considered buying boxes for some cheap gold myself last years, but I don't want to spend over say 40 euro for digital stuff. Based on the comments then I noticed its only useful when you have the tanks already and buy in bulk.

 


Edited by gunslingerXXX, 18 December 2019 - 06:55 AM.


TankkiPoju #4 Posted 18 December 2019 - 07:18 AM

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View PostgunslingerXXX, on 18 December 2019 - 06:53 AM, said:

Its an event for big spenders. Thats fine imo. 

 

 

Not really. It's an event for people who are likely to play the game for another year, and like to spend the money now to have premium account all the time. I bought 75 boxes to get gold and use that gold to buy premium time for a year. Everything else was a bonus. Now I just wait for an offer on premium year, which will come anyway.

 

WG is going to sell all the tanks (E75 TS and 703) anyway next year because its WG, so if I really wanted those and not gold, I would have spent nothing.

 

Is 75 boxes for 100 euros a lot of money? Maybe for some, but it covers the whole year so...

 



gunslingerXXX #5 Posted 18 December 2019 - 07:33 AM

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View PostTankkiPoju, on 18 December 2019 - 07:18 AM, said:

 

 

 

Is 75 boxes for 100 euros a lot of money? Maybe for some, but it covers the whole year so...

 

In my personal opinion, 100 euro is a lot to spend on a game, especially when you can also play it for free.

100 euro as such is not a lot to me, however I'm a cheap bastard so yeah...

 

The point of my post (and I think OP's) is not to debate if 100 euro's is a lot, or if it's 'worth it', I think the point is that boxes are more profitable when you buy in bulk, and not only because of the euro/box discount ratio.

He is warning players that especially buying say 25 boxes can become quite dissaspointing if you follow the forum 'agreement' that the boxes provide the best value / gold for money.



TankkiPoju #6 Posted 18 December 2019 - 07:36 AM

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View PostgunslingerXXX, on 18 December 2019 - 07:33 AM, said:

In my personal opinion, 100 euro is a lot to spend on a game, especially when you can also play it for free.

 

Games like WoT are free only if you don't value your time at all.

 

If you play for free, you just don't pay it with actual money. You pay it with your time. The reason is f2p players are content for people who invest money into the game.

 

So technically if you are a f2p player, you are working for WG to bring content for other people.

 

In any case, you always pay.

 


Edited by TankkiPoju, 18 December 2019 - 07:37 AM.


Maschinenkanone #7 Posted 18 December 2019 - 07:37 AM

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View PostTankkiPoju, on 18 December 2019 - 06:18 AM, said:

 

Not really. It's an event for people who are likely to play the game for another year, and like to spend the money now to have premium account all the time. I bought 75 boxes to get gold and use that gold to buy premium time for a year. 

 

I got my year of premium time discounted for roughly the half of 100 euros. 



gunslingerXXX #8 Posted 18 December 2019 - 07:44 AM

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View PostTankkiPoju, on 18 December 2019 - 07:36 AM, said:

 

Games like WoT are free only if you don't value your time at all.

 

If you play for free, you just don't pay it with actual money. You pay it with your time. The reason is f2p players are content for people who invest money into the game.

 

So technically if you are a f2p player, you are working for WG to bring content for other people.

 

In any case, you always pay.

 

Well its a very subjective topic anyway, how you value stuff such as money and time. 

For me I play WoT as entertainment only, I dont try to achieve anything or finish grinds or whatever, do playing doesn't feel like paying with my precious time. Its just a time awsy from regular life. 

Amyway, to each their own, i'm happy this combo of f2p and p2p works out.



trispect #9 Posted 18 December 2019 - 09:57 AM

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View PostTankkiPoju, on 18 December 2019 - 08:36 AM, said:

 

Games like WoT are free only if you don't value your time at all.

 

If you play for free, you just don't pay it with actual money. You pay it with your time. The reason is f2p players are content for people who invest money into the game.

 

So technically if you are a f2p player, you are working for WG to bring content for other people.

 

In any case, you always pay.

 

 

^^This 

 

At this point of my life I have more money than time and also after playing since beta I have no interest of grinding low tiers and stock tanks when the fun usually starts at tier 9 (most of the time)

 

I bought 75 boxes and that's likely what I will spend for this game next year. That's under 8€/month when counting in half of December. Got all the gold I need and on top of that I got 703 II, E 75TS, and SU-130PM. 



Martinjozo #10 Posted 18 December 2019 - 10:34 AM

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View Post1ucky, on 18 December 2019 - 06:43 AM, said:

If you wanted to say that buying a few boxes is a worse deal than buying a lot of them, that's true but also obvious for multiple reasons including up to 33% price discount advertised in the prem shop.

 

Also, the premium tank drops are actually worth something, as are the bonuses from atmosphere level plus large decorations, and also you can get camo styles by completing albums... Doesn't seem like you've taken that into account.

 

#BadStudy

 

No, i wanted to say there are better deals now and trough the year for an average paying customer (and that should include at least 70% of the players) regarding gold and premium time who is not willing to spend 100€ on boxes.
 

I never said it's not, but the topic is about profitability of buying boxes for prem and gold. 
Regarding t3 and t5 tanks i don't think so cause they are ether in the best case average or a clicker tank and nowadays t8 perms are easily obtained even by f2p players. Getting t8 is gr8, but the chance is not realistic in 25 boxes or less, it's just a gamble. Regarding the atmosphere yes, it's a gr8 way to boost it up to lvl 10 right from the get go, but some ppl actually enjoy the advancement. Regarding the styles... the ones in the boxes are gr8 but it it's a gamble to get them and the ones in collections... you can get those from previous year very easily. But yes, if you like the styles from this year and u want to spend some money for it please do but that was not the point of what i was trying to say.


Edited by Martinjozo, 18 December 2019 - 10:41 AM.


Stevies_Team #11 Posted 18 December 2019 - 10:43 AM

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Lootboxes seem to be great for getting gold

 

The rest of it is a gamble

 

And if they're handing out 200 a pop to utubers etc then yes, that's what you need to do to get "everything"

 

I would also say you should open the lot at the same time just in case they are on a public rng and it's not attached to your user ID



TheNightFox #12 Posted 18 December 2019 - 10:51 AM

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View PostTankkiPoju, on 18 December 2019 - 07:36 AM, said:

 

Games like WoT are free only if you don't value your time at all.

 

If you play for free, you just don't pay it with actual money. You pay it with your time. The reason is f2p players are content for people who invest money into the game.

 

So technically if you are a f2p player, you are working for WG to bring content for other people.

 

In any case, you always pay.

 

 

Comment of the year. Couldn't have put it better.

 

Yes, paying make this game really a good idea for some, for a guy with a job and family like myself it would mean the utmost disrespect to real life engagements not to buy prem account and some other stuff.

To give everyone an idea, it currently takes me approximately 50 games to grind T9 to T10, with prem account and some X5 missions. I'm alright to pay for the game with $$$ instead of my time. I enjoy those 50 games, but going much over that would be irresponsible for me.


Edited by TheNightFox, 18 December 2019 - 11:08 AM.


Zelar_Wicked #13 Posted 18 December 2019 - 11:16 AM

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Get the 75 boxes package, its so worth it. I dident own any of the prem tanks. I guess im lucky since i got

all the prem tanks, 

all the skins

super commander

29k gold

60 prem days

3.000.000 credits.

 

Im set for a whole year, dont need to buy anything else until next years boxes. So my advice, buy the big package or dont buy any boxes at all (i dont think its the same as buying 3x 25 boxes) .



gunslingerXXX #14 Posted 18 December 2019 - 11:28 AM

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View PostTheNightFox, on 18 December 2019 - 10:51 AM, said:

 

Comment of the year. Couldn't have put it better.

 

Yes, paying make this game really a good idea for some, for a guy with a job and family like myself it would mean the utmost disrespect to real life engagements not to buy prem account and some other stuff.

To give everyone an idea, it currently takes me approximately 50 games to grind T9 to T10, with prem account and some X5 missions. I'm alright to pay for the game with $$$ instead of my time. I enjoy those 50 games, but going much over that would be irresponsible for me.

You don't get it in my opinion.

 

Also stating that not paying is disrespectful to your family is ...

 

Let me explain. If your goal is to advance as much as possible, you are not playing a game but rather are taking on another task in your life. Also consider this task very likely only has value to you personally. 

 

I play tanks for fun and to relax. You can see from my battle count I don't play a lot. If I need 50 or 250 battles from tier 9 to tier 10 is irrelevant, as long as I enjoy doing so. Sure, stock sucks, but there is as sense of achievement in getting the upgraded tank as much as getting to tier 10.

 

Basically playing WoT should be about the journey, not the destination (is there one anyway???).

 

 

Edited to clean up and remove some overly-harsh words.

 


Edited by gunslingerXXX, 18 December 2019 - 12:00 PM.


clixor #15 Posted 18 December 2019 - 11:28 AM

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View PostTheNightFox, on 18 December 2019 - 10:51 AM, said:

 

Comment of the year. Couldn't have put it better.

 

Yes, paying make this game really a good idea for some, for a guy with a job and family like myself it would mean the utmost disrespect to real life engagements not to buy prem account and some other stuff.

To give everyone an idea, it currently takes me approximately 50 games to grind T9 to T10, with prem account and some X5 missions. I'm alright to pay for the game with $$$ instead of my time. I enjoy those 50 games, but going much over that would be irresponsible for me.

 

This does depend on what your goals in WOT actually are, if it's to get the Tier10 asap then, yes, paying for faster progess is worth it. But if your goal is to simply enjoy playing then it doesnt matter how fast you do it, in other words, if you enjoyed that 50 battles, you could have enjoyed the 300 it would take otherwise as well (arguably you could enjoy the more battles as you get to learn tanks better).

 

 



snowlywhite #16 Posted 18 December 2019 - 11:43 AM

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personally, I'm interested in gold. Strictly that. I never considered the days of premium you get from boxes(though from a 75 pack you get 2 months).

 

Gold can be converted in premium, credits... well, they're worthless for me(might be willing to pay 1% of what WG currently asks for credits). I'm interested in multiples of 20.5k, or whatever's the amount, with 15% discount, of an year of premium.

 

- strictly gold wise, there's no better deal(on average), than 75 boxes. And that's by far.

- the 25 boxes - depends on how many t8s you already have from those in the boxes and obviously the volatility of results will be higher. I would never say that something like cherry on top is better. The reason being you're buying the premium at the rate for 30 days. Which is a bad deal compared to buying it yearly.

 

Block Quote

 95% chance of getting at least one low tier (or 77% of getting 2 or more)

 

on average, probably you're looking at ~11k gold from a 25k pack. Given that this or that t5-t6 shitter you might have from a previous event or something or you get a duplicate. Which kinda beats all other offers given you also have a chance to get a t8. Obviously, you might not want that t8 and value it at 0, but...

 

- 3 or 11 boxes - you're buying for the thrill of it. You're "gambling" on the cheap. If you can call 6 or 20 eurs gambling; more like making yourself a present if you ask me. Sure, the prizes aren't great either(let's assume a t8 is ~30 if you buy it on the discount), odds are bad, but... you're spending 6 or 20 eurs. What do you expect?

 

p.s. - I don't know how to price the decorations. But definitely they should be priced somehow. Given you get a hefty bonus in a period when you might have time to play. And if you trigger the boosters and have a good bonus and so on, you can set yourself for a good portion of the year.


Edited by snowlywhite, 18 December 2019 - 11:53 AM.


TheNightFox #17 Posted 18 December 2019 - 11:46 AM

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View PostgunslingerXXX, on 18 December 2019 - 11:28 AM, said:

You don't get it. 

 

Also stating that not paying is disrespectful to your family is dumb as ****

 

Let me explain. If your goal is to advance as much as possible, you are not playing a game but rather are taking on another task in your life. Also consider this task very likely only has value to you personally. I have difficulty to imagine your wife will be very happy when you reach a tier 10 tank...

 

I play tanks for fun and to relax. You can see from my battle count I don't play a lot. If I need 50 or 250 battles from tier 9 to tier 10 is irrelevant, as long as I enjoy doing so. Sure, stock sucks, but there is as sense of achievement in getting the upgraded tank as much as getting to tier 10. Surely my wife doesn't give a **** about either...

 

Basically playing WoT should be about the journey, not the destination (is there one anyway???).

 

 

 

 

 

Firstly, language sir. Second, you rushed in assuming that you know exactly what my goals are. Also, please don't assume stuff about my family, that's just nasty. That's what ruins this forum, nasty nasty comments going personal against other people. But enough of the personal stuff. Talking about the game, I will expand a little.

 

Yea, I understand what you mean with the journey. That's why I said that I enjoy those 50 games. But more than that is not enjoyable for me anymore. And it takes too much time. Also, I want to get to T10, to be able to play that tank in team games, and also play another line. That's my take. Whether you have another way of enjoying the game, that doesn't affect my perspective.

10:51 Added after 4 minute

View Postclixor, on 18 December 2019 - 11:28 AM, said:

 

This does depend on what your goals in WOT actually are, if it's to get the Tier10 asap then, yes, paying for faster progess is worth it. But if your goal is to simply enjoy playing then it doesnt matter how fast you do it, in other words, if you enjoyed that 50 battles, you could have enjoyed the 300 it would take otherwise as well (arguably you could enjoy the more battles as you get to learn tanks better).

 

 


I expanded a little above. I enjoy 50 games with a tank in random, but I don't play 500 with the same tank, that's not enjoyable anymore. And I do also have a reason to get to T10, to be able to play the tank in T10 team games.


Edited by TheNightFox, 18 December 2019 - 11:47 AM.


Wrinkly #18 Posted 18 December 2019 - 11:54 AM

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But they are not loot boxes, they are Christmas boxes. No gambling at all here. So just ask for a refund if you don't get what you want.

Stevies_Team #19 Posted 18 December 2019 - 12:06 PM

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and I wouldn't get anything later on...

 

A hard nosed business would front load any big ticket goodies into the early stages of an offer with declining returns for late adopters

A fair and decent organisation would spread everything equally amongst its users

 

So which one is WoT most likely to be?



BravelyRanAway #20 Posted 18 December 2019 - 12:21 PM

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View PostStevies_Team, on 18 December 2019 - 11:06 AM, said:

and I wouldn't get anything later on...

 

A hard nosed business would front load any big ticket goodies into the early stages of an offer with declining returns for late adopters

QB got opened 200 boxes last year and didn't get the IS-3A, 100 boxes and didn't get the T-59 and this year he only got the 703 after opening 183 boxes.......you think that's front loading?






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