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Sheridan tank curves, 4% below expected


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Japualtah #1 Posted 13 July 2020 - 08:47 AM

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Same for the T-100, which is a very fine tank, how comes lights perform so badly?

It is not related to wheeled vehicles since (IIRC) it was the same before wheelies were introduced, so why do lights perform so poorly (across all skill ranges) and why doesn't WG try and fix it?

There must be a reason, no conspiracy theories please.

 

A reason I could think of is that lights are overpowered on certain maps and horrible on others so they are impossible to balance.

Another one would be that a time light tanks, which only went up to tier V, were very capable vehicles, fun and effective, they were destroyed by mediums laser accuracy and ridiculous alpha tanks and there is no way to come back from that, reason why wheelies were introduced.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like light tanks and still take my Sheridan for a spin and don't give a damn about my 47% winrate in it.

I had 55% in the Chaffee back when they were top of the line and had much more fun.

I would like that fun to come back, is it really a thing of the past?



Gwynbleidd11 #2 Posted 13 July 2020 - 08:56 AM

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Sheridan is awesome, like a semi light-medium tank. It's like MT which can change position faster than any MT and has good gun. Low winrate seems to be caused by average players who uses it as a scout and dying in the first minute.

chainreact0r #3 Posted 13 July 2020 - 09:10 AM

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Lights are so weak because WG are very good at covering their backs.

Light tanks have an inherently very high skill cap. If they would be balanced at 50% global wr, they would be in fact significantly overpowered in the hands of good players. If they made them better, bad and average players would perform similarly as they do now, while good players will make their stats skyrocket. In such a scenario, it's impossible for WG to balance them since they don't have a basis in the form of the overall WR. 

 

We can already see this happening with EBR's, where having a very good player vs a not so good player is a game changer. They accepted the EBR since it's easier for noobs to accidentaly do better than in tracked lights, but the concept is the same. Having one team frustrated cause one player on the enemy team is good at the game is clearly not the way WG envisions the game. That's the reason for 25% rng as well.

So instead of having a headache of rebalancing tanks that are overperforming without a way of gauging by how much, they chose the easy way out by making them terrible, so they are just average in unicum hands.



BR33K1_PAWAH #4 Posted 13 July 2020 - 09:12 AM

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^

Jauhesammutin #5 Posted 13 July 2020 - 09:17 AM

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View PostJapualtah, on 13 July 2020 - 07:47 AM, said:

Same for the T-100, which is a very fine tank, how comes lights perform so badly?

It is not related to wheeled vehicles since (IIRC) it was the same before wheelies were introduced, so why do lights perform so poorly (across all skill ranges) and why doesn't WG try and fix it?

There must be a reason, no conspiracy theories please.

 

A reason I could think of is that lights are overpowered on certain maps and horrible on others so they are impossible to balance.

Another one would be that a time light tanks, which only went up to tier V, were very capable vehicles, fun and effective, they were destroyed by mediums laser accuracy and ridiculous alpha tanks and there is no way to come back from that, reason why wheelies were introduced.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like light tanks and still take my Sheridan for a spin and don't give a damn about my 47% winrate in it.

I had 55% in the Chaffee back when they were top of the line and had much more fun.

I would like that fun to come back, is it really a thing of the past?

Wheelies were the first "balanced" light tanks which were quite close to the expected curve.

 

In this interview https://youtu.be/nwol7e9EzFE?t=130 Biletskiy says that the wheelies are better than all the other light tanks, but he doesn't compare them to the other classes. Like you said, light tanks weren't good before the wheelies and the wheelies weren't OP, they were just better than other light tanks. It's clear that WG doesn't want to make light tanks too good.

 

It could be that they can't balance them around maps or it could be that they don't want to make lights the "meta" tanks. Back in the day T5 tanks were against T10 and that was fine as they were supposed to just spot. Maybe that was too difficult and confusing for new players so they made lights up to T8 and eventually to T10. And that brought the problem of T10 mediums vs T10 lights.

 

IMO EBR is the first T10 light and I think that's how T10 lights should be. I understand that it overshadows other T10 lights so instead of buffing all of them it's just easier to nerf the EBR.

 



trispect #6 Posted 13 July 2020 - 09:29 AM

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View PostGwynbleidd11, on 13 July 2020 - 09:56 AM, said:

Sheridan is awesome, like a semi light-medium tank. It's like MT which can change position faster than any MT and has good gun. Low winrate seems to be caused by average players who uses it as a scout and dying in the first minute.


Sheridan is awesome?:teethhappy: Sheridan is a bad medium tank. 
 

All tier 10 lights were dead on arrival. WG were afraid that good players would dominate in those and that would make Steve the IS-7 driver angry.

 

Lights should either have competitive guns or mobility similar to EBR 105 to make them relevant.



no_skill_bob #7 Posted 13 July 2020 - 09:29 AM

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Sheridan is just crap, useless as a light tank, bad as a medium.

Japualtah #8 Posted 13 July 2020 - 09:34 AM

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View PostGwynbleidd11, on 13 July 2020 - 08:56 AM, said:

Low winrate seems to be caused by average players who uses it as a scout and dying in the first minute.

 

Nope. Curves are 4% too low for all skill levels. Quite remarkably indeed, it pretty much looks like a flat line just 4% under the expected win rate, so skill can be safely ruled out.

08:36 Added after 2 minute

View Posttrispect, on 13 July 2020 - 09:29 AM, said:

All tier 10 lights were dead on arrival. WG were afraid that good players would dominate in those and that would make Steve the IS-7 driver angry.

 

That was my first thought, but how comes the victory rate doesn't climb at higher skill levels?

It's what happens with some tanks, bad for the bad, average for the average and good for the good - which makes sense, by the way.

But in the case of light tanks, they are bad all across the board, so this might not be the correct explanation.

 

Unless the curves (https://wot-news.com.../tankinfo/en/eu) are incorrect, of course.

08:42 Added after 8 minute

View PostJauhesammutin, on 13 July 2020 - 09:17 AM, said:

IMO EBR is the first T10 light and I think that's how T10 lights should be. I understand that it overshadows other T10 lights so instead of buffing all of them it's just easier to nerf the EBR.

 

 

Good point, the EBR has a curve just reaching 50% at 51% skill level and never going above expected. Once nerfed, it will not change at all, IMHO, since good players will play them very cautiously and the problem will remain, they will just be useless for the majority of players.

Which, of course, doesn't address light tanks concerns :)



MrKrotchy #9 Posted 13 July 2020 - 04:55 PM

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View PostJapualtah, on 13 July 2020 - 08:47 AM, said:

Same for the T-100, which is a very fine tank, how comes lights perform so badly?

It is not related to wheeled vehicles since (IIRC) it was the same before wheelies were introduced, so why do lights perform so poorly (across all skill ranges) and why doesn't WG try and fix it?

There must be a reason, no conspiracy theories please.

 

Hm, lets see the pros and cons compared to other tanks:

 

Pros:

Full camo on the move

Very slightly faster than some mediums

 

Average:

As fast as some mediums

View range the same as mediums and heavies

 

Cons:

View range worse than some mediums and heavies

Worst alpha damage

Worst DPM

Worst pen

Worst pen drop off over distance

Worst armor

Worst HP

 

Did I miss anything?

 

The reason why they're trash? Because Steve doesn't want the LT to have a chance to kill him, Steve would feel humiliated by that, he'd rather just practice his shooting on the fun moving targets. And considering that 50% of this game is full of Steves, WG does everything they can to make Steve like the game and spend money on the game.

 

I get that they're a company who has to make money blah blah blah, I still find it sad to let greed ruin a decent game.



Balc0ra #10 Posted 13 July 2020 - 05:45 PM

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I suspect the removal of scout MM is partly to blame. As most lights now play damage dealers and bullies vs intel gatherers. Even early game. Especially Steve when he gets bored of his IS-7.

Iscaran #11 Posted 13 July 2020 - 06:26 PM

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View PostJapualtah, on 13 July 2020 - 08:34 AM, said:

 

Nope. Curves are 4% too low for all skill levels. Quite remarkably indeed, it pretty much looks like a flat line just 4% under the expected win rate, so skill can be safely ruled out.

08:36 Added after 2 minute

 

That was my first thought, but how comes the victory rate doesn't climb at higher skill levels?

It's what happens with some tanks, bad for the bad, average for the average and good for the good - which makes sense, by the way.

But in the case of light tanks, they are bad all across the board, so this might not be the correct explanation.

 

Unless the curves (https://wot-news.com.../tankinfo/en/eu) are incorrect, of course.

08:42 Added after 8 minute

 

Tank Curves are actually not so straight forward simple to read. Tank curves are best viewed on as "does it require to have (a certain) skill threshold to play a vehicle. They dont tell us so much about over- or underbalancing of the vehicle within the scope of performance of all tanks and within the scope of an entire match.

E.g. Many arties have a "flat line" in tank curves - how do you explain that ? A quite intuitive answer is: no matter what skill the arty player has - he has only little impact on the outcome of the battle and thus they are ALL ~+-49.50%

Tank curves also lack the most important info available from statistics. The Confidence Interval.

If you try to make a tank curve with a "narrow" confidence interval of "merely" +-0.32% points on EACH of the data points this is the result (see attachment).

Lets call this confidence intervall sigma. To really be able to "claim" with a certain probability that this claim is not just "random error" requires to look at 2 or better 3-Sigma deviations. If your observed value exceeds the expectation by more than 3-Sigma we can be "pretty sure" it is not just a random effect.

 

Try to look on the tank curves and virtually add such a 3-Sigma confidence window (3*0.32% + AND - !)...that is the "truthness range" of your data. Meaning in fact it could be anywhere in that range. We just draw the line through the "average value" because it is convenient.

 

Though from global stats for the 4Week perios 25May - 23 June for  Sheridan we get for 101k matches a Average winrate of 47.95% with a 1-Sigma confidence interval of +-0.15%. Since the global Class winrate average is 49.53% we can quite safely assess that the 1.58% "underperformance" is >10-Sigma outside of the Confidence interval of the average value.

Thus we can conclude - Sheridan is quite certainly "underperforming" within the light tank class. However it is not by 4% as implied by the tank curves (and if you look at the higher count tank curve in my attachment you see it also draws a different line than the default one with poor 1k matches averaging base).

ONE Problem remains though. As Sheridan is a not very commonly played vehicle (in the time period above only 587 different players played at least 1 match and contributed to the statistics) means that based on amount of different players we could not safely asses its underperformance. The confidence interval is just too large due to lack of players (means we could just have looked on a selected few very bad players accidentally). Something Tank curves does not show neither unfortunately.

 

Long story short:

Anyway - I agree though that WG needs to work on the class balancing more - especially for LTs.

 

Attached Files

  • Attached File   Sheridan100k_Curve.png   39.09K


WindSplitter1 #12 Posted 13 July 2020 - 06:38 PM

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View Postchainreact0r, on 13 July 2020 - 08:10 AM, said:

Lights are so weak because WG are very good at covering their backs.

Light tanks have an inherently very high skill cap. If they would be balanced at 50% global wr, they would be in fact significantly overpowered in the hands of good players. If they made them better, bad and average players would perform similarly as they do now, while good players will make their stats skyrocket. In such a scenario, it's impossible for WG to balance them since they don't have a basis in the form of the overall WR. 

 

We can already see this happening with EBR's, where having a very good player vs a not so good player is a game changer. They accepted the EBR since it's easier for noobs to accidentaly do better than in tracked lights, but the concept is the same. Having one team frustrated cause one player on the enemy team is good at the game is clearly not the way WG envisions the game. That's the reason for 25% rng as well.

So instead of having a headache of rebalancing tanks that are overperforming without a way of gauging by how much, they chose the easy way out by making them terrible, so they are just average in unicum hands.

 

WG simply hates Light Tanks.

That is the biggest reason why.

 

Before LT global nerfs, a bad player in an LT will do bad no matter what (rush to a position to be obliterated in the first 30s, etc).

 

The part I highlighted: that's a terrible reason not to let a vehicle be competitive and justifies the exact opposite. As Light Tanks are the hardest class to play well, they obviously need some sorts of mechanisms that allow them to perform as expected like they used to back in pre-9.18. Highest view range, insane rate of fire, disastrously low penetration and meager alpha, with the best mobility on the market.

 

Also, you are not considering the fact other vehicles from other classes are already like that (HTs especially).

 

If a player is able to unlock a vehicle's potential then they should be rewarded by that and not have a class that already struggles with being outclassed by others in most of their fields be artificially handicapped further because some special breed of players cannot handle the humiliation of being brought down by a lesser vehicle.



tajj7 #13 Posted 13 July 2020 - 10:25 PM

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View Postchainreact0r, on 13 July 2020 - 08:10 AM, said:

Lights are so weak because WG are very good at covering their backs.

Light tanks have an inherently very high skill cap. If they would be balanced at 50% global wr, they would be in fact significantly overpowered in the hands of good players. If they made them better, bad and average players would perform similarly as they do now, while good players will make their stats skyrocket. In such a scenario, it's impossible for WG to balance them since they don't have a basis in the form of the overall WR. 

 

We can already see this happening with EBR's, where having a very good player vs a not so good player is a game changer. They accepted the EBR since it's easier for noobs to accidentaly do better than in tracked lights, but the concept is the same. Having one team frustrated cause one player on the enemy team is good at the game is clearly not the way WG envisions the game. That's the reason for 25% rng as well.

So instead of having a headache of rebalancing tanks that are overperforming without a way of gauging by how much, they chose the easy way out by making them terrible, so they are just average in unicum hands.

 

They aren't average in unicum hands, they are bad.

 

Even EBR is not OP in unicum hands.

 

If they made the tier 10 lights better, they still wouldn't be very good, because even most tier 10 meds are not very good currently and most them blow every light our of the water, tanks like the Fatton and Obj, 140 underperform at the moment. 

 

Good balance on lights would allow good players to over perform, because that is high risk/high reward, its how lights and many meds used to be, the Bat Chat used to have a WR curve like that (now its just bad) where it made good players get higher win rates but bad players low ones.

 

Which is fine because there are loads of tanks like super heavies that do the opposite, that make bad players do better than they should (and of course arty does it). 


Edited by tajj7, 13 July 2020 - 10:27 PM.


chainreact0r #14 Posted 13 July 2020 - 10:32 PM

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View PostWindSplitter1, on 13 July 2020 - 06:38 PM, said:

 

WG simply hates Light Tanks.

That is the biggest reason why.

 

Before LT global nerfs, a bad player in an LT will do bad no matter what (rush to a position to be obliterated in the first 30s, etc).

 

The part I highlighted: that's a terrible reason not to let a vehicle be competitive and justifies the exact opposite. As Light Tanks are the hardest class to play well, they obviously need some sorts of mechanisms that allow them to perform as expected like they used to back in pre-9.18. Highest view range, insane rate of fire, disastrously low penetration and meager alpha, with the best mobility on the market.

 

Also, you are not considering the fact other vehicles from other classes are already like that (HTs especially).

 

If a player is able to unlock a vehicle's potential then they should be rewarded by that and not have a class that already struggles with being outclassed by others in most of their fields be artificially handicapped further because some special breed of players cannot handle the humiliation of being brought down by a lesser vehicle.

You are right, of course a player should be rewarded for unlocking a tank's potential.

However that doesn't quite align with WG's business view and the desired happiness of the playerbase.

 

Having to fight a tank that is faster than you or you can't spot, (basically can't fight back), is just frustrating as hell. Something similar has been happening for 10 years now in the form of arty, but it's too late to do anything about that since it's so old  Ofc WG knows how unhappy the playerbase is because of an unfair mechanic and decided to stop another frustration fiasco while they still can. It doesn't matter that a light tank requires skill to outplay, at the end of the day it's frustrating and nobody likes that. A happy customer is a paying customer after all.






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